Top 10 Recent PP Trends

Tom Collins

2022-11-28

One of the biggest fallacies I see in fantasy hockey occurs when fantasy general managers are doing research, but only look at the full season-to-date statistics instead of focusing on recent events.

While looking at a full season of statistics can be partly helpful, we’re now at the point of the season where you should be looking at more recent trends. Recent trends will give you an idea of how a player’s usage may have been impacted.

For example, maybe a young player started the season averaging 14 minutes a night, but for the past five games, they’re up to 19 minutes a contest. Overall, their average ice time might be around 15 minutes, but you’re missing the bigger picture by looking at the whole season.

Below, we’re looking at 10 recent power-play trends that have occurred over the past month. Most of the listed players are getting reps on the top power-play unit, but there are a couple of names who have been demoted to the second unit (or in one case, promoted there).

10. Rasmus Sandin taking over Toronto’s power-play duties

With the news that Morgan Rielly is out for four-to-six weeks with a knee injury, Rasmus Sandin was immediately thrust into Rielly’s spot on the top power play. He’s been held pointless in the last three games since the Rielly injury, and the Leafs’ power play is one for 12 since Rielly was knocked out of action. If the power play can’t get going, you have to expect it’s only a matter of time before Mark Giordano is given a shot. It may be a smart move to grab Giordano and stash him if you have the roster space.

9. Dawson Mercer is on the top unit, but for how long?

When everyone is healthy, Nathan Bastian gets plenty of opportunity on the top power-play unit with the Devils, even though he has zero power-play points on the season and four in his 141-game career. When Bastian left Saturday’s game against Washington after playing just 1:25, it was Mercer who stepped into the top spot. Mercer played 4:05 with the man advantage during that Saturday game, picking up a power-play assist. This comes after six straight games without a single second of power-play time. As of the time of this writing, there’s no word on how long Bastian might be out for, but Mercer seems to be a capable replacement if it’s for any number of games.

8. Mike Matheson on the top unit, kind of

Since he got back into the lineup four games ago, Matheson has been manning Montreal’s top unit with the man advantage, but it may not be apparent by quickly looking at the stats. Although the Habs occasionally toy with a five-forward power play, their usual setup for the last few games is to go with four forwards and one defenseman. In overtime, however, they will go with four forwards and zero defensemen. Look at Friday night’s game against Chicago as an example. The Habs were given a power play in the second period and scored 21 seconds in, with Matheson picking up a power-play assist. Montreal had no more power-play opportunities until overtime, at which point they went with four forwards for the full two minutes, but did not score. The stats will say Matheson only played 21 seconds of 2:21 seconds of power-play time that night (14.9 per cent), but he was still on the top unit in regulation. Since Matheson has been back in the lineup on November 19, he has averaged 2:47 minutes of power-play time per game for the Habs. The next closest Hab defenseman is Chris Wideman at 3:10 per contest (although in just one game as he’s been a healthy scratch in 10 of the last 12 contests) and Arber Xhekaj at 46 seconds per night.

7. Juuso Parssinen getting some reps with the second unit

While most players on this list can be found on their teams’ top unit, Parssinen getting any power-play time is incredible. The rookie wasn’t expected to make the team this soon but has quickly made an impression in his first professional season. After nine points in 10 AHL games, he was called up to the big leagues. He’s been on the second unit since the call-up and has two man-advantage points in six games. Overall, he has five points, 11 shots and 12 hits on the campaign.

6. Marcus Bjork on the top unit in Columbus

There was plenty of hope for Columbus going into the season, but injuries have decimated any optimism that may have existed. They are currently without Patrik Laine, Jakub Voracek, Jake Bean, Elvis Merzlikins, Zach Werenski and Adam Boqvist. Even sophomore Justin Danforth, who started the year on the top unit, is gone for the season with a shoulder injury. This is causing a lot of lineup changes for Columbus, but it’s the defense that deserves the most focus. This is Bjork’s first season in North America, and after spending some time in the AHL, was called up with all the injuries. He’s been manning the top power-play unit for the past four games and has two power-play points so far. A relative unknown three weeks ago, Bjork should still see some power-play time once Boqvist is back in the lineup.

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5. Oskar Sundqvist on Wings’ top unit

He was on the top unit near the start of the season but an upper-body injured forced him out of the lineup for two weeks. Aside from his first game back, he’s been thrust back into his top-line role. Along with Dominik Kubalik taking a spot on the top unit, this pushes Tyler Bertuzzi and Lucas Raymond down to the second unit. While Detroit did try an even split of power-play time between the two units early on, that isn’t the case anymore, with the top unit getting around 70 per cent of the team’s power-play minutes over the past four games. Sundqvist isn’t exactly lighting it up, with seven points and three power-play points in 13 games, but he could be worth a flyer in many deep fantasy leagues.

4. Dylan Cozens on the top unit

The Sabres have mostly gone with the same four players (Alex Tuch, Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin) on the top unit, with the fifth player rotating out every few games. For the past four games, it’s been Cozens in that coveted spot. He’s responded with two power-play points in those games. He has 16 shots and four points in those games as well, so the extra power-play time seems to be boosting his other stats.

3. Evgeny Kuznetsov pushed down to the second unit

With the return of T.J. Oshie, Kuznetsov finds himself the odd man out on the top power-play unit. This is probably for the best, as he just wasn’t producing. Sure, his five power-play points don’t look too bad, but then you realize that four of those points came in one game. A demotion in power-play time is disastrous for Kuznetsov owners. Last year, Kuznetsov was on the top power-play unit all season, and his 27 points with the man advantage helped pave the way to a 78-point season. Without the power-play production, Kuznetsov should see a significant drop in overall production.

2. Jean-Gabriel Pageau on the top unit

Eleven games ago, a decision was made to move Pageau onto the top power-play unit, and the results have been tremendous for any fantasy general manager who ran to the waiver wire to scoop him up. His four power-play goals over that time frame lead the team, while his five power-play points trail only Mathew Barzal. This is all part of a renaissance season for Pageau, who is on pace for career highs in power-play goals, power-play points, hits and faceoff wins, while putting up goals, points and shots total that we haven’t seen since he left Ottawa.

1. Victor Hedman on the second unit

This is the most obvious one, but there should be no doubt that it’s number one. For the first time since 2015-16, Hedman may struggle to reach the 50-point mark. With 10 points in 18 games, he’s on pace for 44 points as he lost his spot on the top power-play unit to Mikhail Sergachev. In the previous six seasons, Hedman’s proficiency on the power play has accounted for 45 per cent of his total production (168 of his 374 points over that time have come with the man advantage). Usually, when an elite player loses their spot, it’s for a couple of games to shake things up. However, Sergachev has been too fantastic to give up his spot, with nine power-play points on the season and five in his last six games.

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