Ramblings: Thoughts on Maccelli, Moser, Kuzmenko, Morrissey, ‘Buy Low’ Options and more … (Nov. 28)

Dobber

2022-11-28

Cyber Monday sale! Our Daily Fantasy Tools subscription is $30 off for today only (was also for Black Friday, but that's over now). You won't see this price again until March. Get these tools for the full season and playoffs – here.

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I'm not sure why Matias Maccelli was a healthy scratch twice last week, as I found his offense to be improving as he grows more comfortable with the NHL. An under-the-radar Arizona prospect who I had ranked pretty high in the summer, and I'm kicking myself for not drafting in my dynasty league (opting instead for Noah Ostlund). He wound up being the highest-ranked player on my list who didn't end up getting drafted. And now he'll be a Top 10 pick next summer. I remember one of the guys in my league not even knowing who he was, when he saw him on my list (I share my list after the draft – lots of curious people in that league!). Maccelli returned from his double-scratch Sunday and posted two assists. He has 12 points in his last 14 games so again I have ask – why was he scratched? He's a future 40-assist player I'm almost certain, with upside for 50. Not much for goals though, as he doesn't shoot enough. Or…at all. Okay, I guess that's why he was scratched. But at some point down the road he'll flirt with 20 goals I'm sure.

For the record – Maccelli notched zero shots Sunday, so he didn't learn from being scratched.

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Nick Schmaltz has three goals, four points and 15 SOG since returning from his annual injury four games ago. He's been playing with Travis Boyd and Clayton Keller, but Sunday they switched out Boyd and put in Nick Ritchie. Boyd has zero points since Schmaltz's return.

Coyotes Defenseman JJ Moser has points in five straight and eight of his last nine. He's getting PP time, but hasn't had a PP point in six games. So his points are coming at even strength and I suspect it is becoming more comfortable playing alongside Juuso Valimaki. Both defensemen are being used in a defensive capacity and are becoming quite affective in that role. In fact, Valimaki leads the team in relative Corsi% while facing the toughest quality of competition among any of Arizona's defensemen. Check out the Usage Chart:

Valimaki really sticks out, and in a positive way. Perhaps his future doesn't lie in being a fantasy stud after all, but instead more of a shutdown guy who can chip in points. Either way, his stepping in as a tremendous shutdown player is allowing Moser a lot of freedom. Valimaki is 24 years old now, while Moser is 22.

Goaltender Connor Ingram has yet to play a game this season in which he has allowed fewer than three goals. I'm a fan of this prospect, but his NHL resume to date has been less than impressive.

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Prior to the season starting, I placed a couple of prop bets based on the payout versus odds of it happening. One of them was Kirill Kaprizov winning the Rocket. After going five straight games without a goal, he now has a goal in three straight. His three points on Sunday give him points in nine consecutive contests and 14 points in that span. He had at least five SOG in each of his last four games.

Sam Steel has been enjoying life lately as the centerman between Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello. He has three points in his last four games. He seems to be getting more comfortable there and since he won nine of 12 faceoffs Sunday, I think he hangs onto the spot a little while longer. If he can truly find his mojo and start producing before he runs out of leash, there's some potential there. He had positive expected-goals by percentage in five of his last eight outings. The next Ryan Hartman scrapheap salvage?

Joel Eriksson Ek has seven points in his last five games. His linemates haven't improved over last year, he's just getting more PP time and doing well with it. Five of his 17 points have come on the PP. It's worth noting that he's getting more defensive zone starts than ever before. His OZ% is 35.5%, meaning that compared to faceoffs in the offensive zone, he's taking more than double in his own zone. How he turns that into production is a testament to his talent. I suspect he'll slow down – it seems too good to be true.

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The preseason 'pronouncement' from out of Winnipeg that new coach Rick Bowness will run his offense through the defense has certainly come true. And while Neal Pionk is marching along at a similar pace as he does every year, it's been Josh Morrissey who has truly flourished. Morrissey, 27, picked up another three assists on Sunday and is up to 23 points on the campaign in just 20 games. Two years ago, in the shortened 56-game season, Morrissey had 21 points. He's already topped that, just a quarter of the way in. This is at the expense of his defense, but when you're on a 94-point pace, who cares? He has 20 points in his last 15 games, and while this torrid pace won't continue – I'm nonetheless not betting against him hitting 70. And when a defenseman gets to 70 points, he has punched his ticket. It will mean that for the next few years, he will get all the PP time and quality offensive-zone ice time he can handle. He will get lots of leash, be allowed to ride out long, drawn-out slumps – because coaches love proven production. Just look at Erik Gustafsson! He's been horrible for over three years now, but keeps getting contracts and good PP time just because he had 60 points once. Once!

Cole Perfetti has points in three of his last four games. He formed one third of an excellent line alongside Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele on Sunday. The line created 17 chances and gave up just seven. Perfetti had played a lot this season with Wheeler and P-L Dubois, but things really seem to be clicking once Scheifele swapped in for Dubois. Meanwhile, Dubois seems to have sparked Kyle Connor.

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Petr Mrazek has given up five or more goals in each of his last three games. To be fair though, the team has coughed up an average of 42 shots in those games.

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Andrei Kuzmenko is becoming the biggest UFA European signing since Artemi Panarin. Now completely comfortable with the NHL, he is absolutely lighting it up with his linemates Ilya Mikheyev and Elias Pettersson. I'm kicking myself for not trying to get him when he had just two points in seven games. Since then he has 18 points in 14 games, including nine in his last five. Here is in OT on Sunday:

Ten goals already, putting him on pace for a 40-goal season?

In his last three games, Thatcher Demko is 2-1-0, 3.01 GAA and 0.919 SV% with two QS. Positive signs after a very rough start.

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Two more assists for the resurging Erik Karlsson gives him 32 points in his last 22 games. A ridiculous pace for a forward, let alone a defenseman. Cale who?

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Matty Beniers enjoyed the first three-point game of his career last week. He enjoyed his second three-point game on Sunday. He has nine points during his four-game points streak. It seems to have really picked up for him once Jared McCann switched onto his line in place of Jaden Schwartz. The move has obviously helped McCann, too.

Both Vince Dunn and Justin Schultz are on pace for a 51-point season right now. Dunn is currently seeing more PP time, but Schultz has points in five straight games (two on the PP). Tough to see which way this will go, but I'm sure an injury will determine the loser. Both players tend to miss about 10 games, judging by recent seasons.

Cam Fowler has 10 points in his last seven games after starting the year with four points in 15. He has five PPPts in those seven games – and had none before that.

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Arthur Kaliyev notched a pair of goals last Sunday – both on the power play as the Kings were forced to roll their second unit out both times. He now leads the Kings in PPPts with eight, while Viktor Arvidsson is next with seven. So does that make this second unit…actually the first? They average nearly a minute less of PP time yet they are obviously more effective.

Kaliyev has 11 points in his last 14 games, but the bulk of his success is on the power play.

It's ironic that Arvidsson is doing so well on the PP. He was legendary in Nashville for always leading the league in lowest PPPts per 60 minutes of PP time. A thing of the past now….

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Some 'buy low' players for you to consider acquiring, in no particular order:

Tony DeAngelo

Elias Lindholm

Sam Reinhart

Alex DeBrincat

And for keeper leagues…

Alexis Lafreniere

Marco Rossi

Nicholas Robertson

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See you next Monday!

2 Comments

  1. Striker 2022-11-28 at 10:08

    Oddly enough, it has been the return of Kassian from an injury that is costing Maccelli and Guenther starts, owner of both in several pools. Arz isn’t really trying to win but have actually played very well considering the state of the team and the fact they have only played 4 games at home, if home is even home at present as like NYI last season it isn’t really home yet as they have played so few games there.

    Morrissey is right at his breakthrough point, career year was to be expected, also own Morrissey in numerous pools.

    Have been trying to buy Lindholm and DeBricate, no luck as yet but I will keep trying. Am a DeAngelo owner in my large H2H league.

    • Dobber 2022-11-28 at 10:49

      Great comments, but you’re claiming credit for Morrissey where it’s not due. He played over 420 games heading into this season and that falls into the 20% of players that breakout outside of their BT season. He’s of average size, so his breakout should have been 200 games. Even as a defenseman, if you subscribe to them taking longer (which I do), he is still well over the 400-game mark. He would not be breaking out right now under Paul Maurice. Or rather, his ‘breakout’ would be low-40s. This all, 100%, from coaching, and not a part of this BT model at all.

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