DFS Thursday: Panthers Catching Canadiens On Back-To-Back; Washington to Capitalize on Ottawa

Brad Hayward

2022-12-29

First, to continue my series of "What's Wrong With…," today's focus is on the Florida Panthers.   Last year's Presidents' Trophy winners are struggling to even stay relevant at this point, currently nine points out of a playoff spot and 12th in the Eastern Conference – as Matthew Tkachuk aptly put it, "the playoffs start now." Florida is 1-4-0 in their last five games, and 3-7-0 in their last ten. Oh, the Cats still have offense – like last season, they lead the NHL in shots per game, but their team shooting percentage is then 25th at just 8.8%. Thus, goal scoring is down a full 21% from their 4.11 G/GP rate from last year. Power play woes, also. Florida has the second-most PP opportunities but ranks 25th in conversion percentage.

Tkachuk leads the pack with 40 points, and six others have at least 22. Tkachuk has mostly been on the top line with Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe, and top power play with added Sam Reinhart and Aaron Ekblad.   However, the offense stalls after that.   Barkov and Ekblad should be back soon (probably tonight?) and the return of Anthony Duclair, to add speed and versatility to the wings, can't come soon enough.  

Defensively, there are three offensive D-men in (2013 first-overall pick) Ekblad, and underrated Brandon Montour and Gustav Forsling… but the "D" gives up far too many high-risk chances, and neither goalkeeper has played to their potential.  Sergei Bobrovsky has a GAA of 3.29, and Spencer Knight's is not much better at 2.93. (Save % combined just below 0.900.)

Without truly good data to back me up, I'm still bullish on the Panthers' chances to make the playoffs in the spring. Some of the new chemistry will gel, the shot percentage will even out, and the netminders only need to be "adequate." But there are four teams they'll need to pass, starting tonight. 

Daily fantasy picks: First, a quick pat on my own back from Tuesday. Yes, I subbed in Antti Raanta for Pyotr Kochetkov at the last minute, but his shutout, plus Bo Horvat's 2+2 propelled me into the top 50 out of 2300. Tonight:

Centers: I'm going with Evgeny Kuznetsov ($5000), still centering Alex Ovechkin on the power play, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($3300), as the Islanders fight to hit the top-8 in the East.  

Wings: Ok, so you remember those Panthers? Yeah, taking both Matthew Tkachuk ($7700), and Carter Verhaeghe ($5700) at home and facing B2B Montreal, along with the Caps' Connor Sheary ($3900).

Defensemen:  Brandon Montour ($5600), completing my Florida stack, and Josh "Norrissey" ($5800) who has been on the scoresheet all but once in December.

Goalie:  Alexandar Georgiev ($7700). The Kings run hot and cold, and the Avs will rebound after an awful performance in Arizona Tuesday.  

Utility:  Adding to a Colorado victory will be ex-Penguin Evan Rodrigues ($4900), on the first power-play until Nathan MacKinnon returns.   

As for me, I think I'm about a 20% bet to succeed at sanding and staining an antique chair I bought yesterday – is this a sport?

@dokhockey

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