Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber
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1. Connor Bedard is even better than I realized. I knew he was excellent, I knew he could score and put up gaudy numbers, but I hadn’t actually watched him play much in the WHL. Getting to see him in-game and he has that je-ne-sais-quoi that the upper-echelon of the elite players has to change a game.

The WJC MVP is someone that will be drafted in every league next year, and it just depends how early. In on-going dynasty leagues he will be the top entry pick. In new dynasty leagues he is probably a top-five pick, in the conversation with Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Leon Draisaitl, Cale Makar, and Igor Shesterkin. In one-year leagues, I will likely let someone else over-draft him, but I would at least start considering him outside of the top-30, once the players like Jake Guentzel, Mat Barzal, and Elias Pettersson are gone. (jan4)

2. The Chicago Blackhawks started off 6-5-3, but are 3-20-1 since then, which is an embarrassment. But not unexpected. We all saw this coming when Kyle Davidson did his nine-month fire sale in about nine days back in the summer. It’s an obvious tank and has been from the start. Odds of winning the draft lottery is 18.5% if you finish last, which Chicago will unless they win all of their games moving forward, it seems.

But the No.2 overall pick (projected to be Adam Fantilli) is an amazing potential star himself. If we consider Connor Bedard as the next Connor McDavid (as I do), I think Fantilli playing the role of this year’s Jack Eichel is about right. Think Eichel’s upside without the proneness to injury.

But what if Chicago falls two spots and down to third? Well, then they have Matvei Michkov. Assuming he can be brought out of Russia in a timely manner (no guarantee, these days), he could be another Kirill Kaprizov in terms of offensive upside. So Davidson did his homework. He knew that if he could get his team to last place in the standings he would secure himself a superstar.

3. Expectations have been sky-high since Shane Wright was granted exceptional player status to play in the OHL at age 15. He’s been a great player and has at least a 95% chance at a meaningful NHL career, but the jury now seems out as to whether he will become an actual franchise player. Wright still seems like a good bet to play in the NHL at some point next season, although I wouldn’t be surprised if he spends some time in the AHL as well, as the Kraken don’t seem intent on rushing him.

Wright, who has been reassigned to the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs, has now played for four teams this season: Seattle Kraken, Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL), Canada (WJC), and now Kingston. Wright is also expected to be traded to another OHL team, which would make five teams. Quite the journey. (jan7)

4. Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler, Cole Perfetti, and Nate Schmidt all returned to the Jets' lineup on Friday. Ehlers’ return is particularly notable, as he had only played two games prior to his sports hernia surgery. The one gripe Ehlers owners have had with the Jets throughout his career is his continued usage on the second-unit power play, so they’ll be happy to know that Ehlers was on the first-unit power play in his return along with Mark Scheifele, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Kyle Connor. Meanwhile, Wheeler was moved onto the second-unit power play. With Ehlers potentially in his prime and Wheeler now over 35, that could be the arrangement going forward.

On a related Jets note, the Josh Morrissey train keeps on rolling. Fresh off being named to the All-Star Game, Morrissey recorded three more assists on Friday. In half a season, he’s already smashed his career high with 46 points, which puts him on pace for 97 points. Sell high? Maybe. There’s a lot of red and orange on Morrissey’s Frozen Tools Buy/Sell Meter (11.1 SH%, 10.5 5on5 SH%, 3.0 PTS/60, 1046 PDO). Yet he could be a player who has been very positively impacted by the offseason hiring of Rick Bowness as head coach. Bowness has the Jets playing above expectations, which should be having a trickle-down effect on Morrissey and others. Morrissey has emerged as a top-notch fantasy option on defense, but I still can’t help but think he’ll cool off a bit during the second half. (jan7)

5. Comparing Jacob Markstrom's Quarter 1 to Quarter 2:

Quarter 1: 16 GP, 8-5-2, 3.03 GAA, .889 SV%
Quarter 2: 12 GP, 4-5-2, 2.33 GAA, .908 SV%

Markstrom has allowed more than two goals just once in his last five games, and he’s earned quality starts in four of those last five games. If you’re still worried about whether to start him, he should be fine. (jan7)

6. Max Pacioretty made his long-awaited Carolina Hurricanes debut on Thursday, as if the Metropolitan Division leaders need to bolster their lineup any further. Pacioretty was held without a point although he registered six shots and two hits if you decided to throw him into your lineup. I’m sometimes hesitant to immediately place a player into my lineup in his first game after a long layoff, but Patches was at least part of the Canes’ first-unit power play. He mainly lined up with Derek Stepan and Jesperi Kotkaniemi, which could bump up the value of both should he remain on that line. (jan6)

7. Pacioretty’s return was eventually overshadowed by the outstanding performance of Juuse Saros. The Hurricanes fired 67 shots (to match Pacioretty’s jersey number) at Saros, and he turned away all but three, setting a Predators team record for saves in a game. Moreover, the Canes had 105 shot attempts and still lost 5-3. After a so-so start to the season, Saros has been heating up in the second quarter with 10 quality starts in his last 11 games. Start him against pretty much any opponent, which is more than I would say for most goalies. 

The 67-shot barrage is the highest single-game shot total since 1991 (remember Nordiques goalie Ron Tugnutt’s 70-save effort?). Only the Florida Panthers have averaged more shots per game than the Hurricanes (35.7 SOG/GP). (jan6)

8. Eeli Tolvanen is a top Frozen Tools search because many of you are curious if a move to Seattle will re-energize his career. He should at least be a player of interest to you because he now has points in all three of his four games as a Kraken. Both of Tolvanen’s goals with Seattle have been on the power play, where he's slotted in on the second unit on a team that distributes its power-play minutes fairly evenly between its two units. Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde aren’t bad linemates for Tolvanen to have, although an average of around 12 minutes per game with the Kraken isn’t ideal. That ice time might be a reason that I’d only suggest adding Tolvanen in deeper leagues.(jan6)

9. Morgan Frost now has two 4-point games this season, the latest being a four-assist effort in the Flyers’ 6-2 win over Arizona. Since his previous four-point game (December 11), Frost has 13 points (5 G, 8 A) over his last 11 games. The Flyers might be an afterthought fantasy-wise this season, but Frost has quietly made his way onto the first-unit power play as well as a scoring line (James van Riemsdyk and Owen Tippett). On Friday, Frost was also widely available, only being rostered in 3% of Yahoo leagues and 28% of Fantrax leagues. (jan6)

10. Jack Eichel returned to the Golden Knights lineup on Thursday. Those who added Michael Amadio might be wondering if this is the end of his run, and on the scoreboard it was. Amadio was held without a point, snapping his seven-game point streak. The good news is that Amadio remained on the Mark Stone – Chandler Stephenson line, while Eichel centered Reilly Smith and Nicolas Roy. For that reason, you may not want to drop Amadio quite yet. (jan6)

11. Let’s face it: the J.T. Miller situation in Vancouver this season has been rotten (his empty-net goal on Thursday was at the time just his third goal in 17 games). That being said, Andrei Kuzmenko has been a breath of fresh air for Canucks fans. Kuzmenko has 17 goals on the season. Over a full season, Kuzmenko is on pace for at least 30 goals, and having fun while scoring goals. If you took a chance on him before the season not knowing what his production would be, nice work. Late last week, he was still available in under 50% of Yahoo leagues for some reason. (jan6)

12. Jakub Vrana was put on waivers Tuesday, while we got news about Alex Nedeljkovic being assigned to the AHL for conditioning.

In 60 starts (68 appearances) wearing the Winged Wheel, Goalie Ned has an .898 save percentage. It will be interesting to see what Detroit’s approach will be once his conditioning stint is over.  

Vrana, meanwhile, went unclaimed on waivers. The cap hit would have been hard for a lot of teams to take on but it seems foolish for some of the bad teams with loads of cap space to pass on him. Alas, it works out for Detroit. (jan5)

13. What happens with Troy Terry in Anaheim. It is clear this team is nowhere near ready to fight for a playoff spot, let alone start contending for a Stanley Cup again. If they’re lucky, two years from now they’ll be in a situation similar to Buffalo where they’re producing offensively but likely be on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

With that in mind, Terry is an RFA after this season and is a year from unrestricted free agency. Does he want to sign long term in Anaheim and, if not, could they look to trade him either at the deadline or this summer? We have heard rumblings of players available like Alexis Lafrenière, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Jesse Puljujarvi. Not that they’d be straight 1-for-1 trades, but could packages built around Terry, one of those guys, and picks/prospects work for the Ducks? (jan5)

14. Brandon Hagel‘s performance is something to behold. He was below average in both SCC components last season in Chicago and was slightly above average in both regards the year before. This year? He is one of four Tampa forwards rating above average in both categories and he was lead the team in SCC/60 entering Friday.

Now, this isn’t about Hagel turning into an offensive star on par with Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos, but it is about Hagel fitting in very nicely with the team’s top options. At the time he was traded, there was some consternation about how he might fit on the team’s roster and seemed like he might end up on the third line. As things stand, he’s on pace to push for 35 goals and 70 points. As long as he keeps up anywhere near this level of 5-on-5 scoring chance creation, he’s going to be a very good player for the Lightning. (jan5)

15. Let's briefly discuss high-danger assists, or simply passes to the key scoring areas of the offensive zone. At time of writing on Wednesday, there were two players in the league averaging north of 4.0 high danger passes per 60 minutes: Connor McDavid (4.9) and… Jesper Bratt (5.4). The New Jersey winger was leading the league in such passes but, and here’s the kicker, the shot rates generated off those passes were less than half the league average. In other words, Bratt is creating an absurd level of chances for his teammates but not only are his teammates finishing at a lower percentage than last year, but they’re not even getting shots off. This is still a young, growing team so it’s a wonder what this will look like in two years. I’m guessing we’re just starting to scratch the surface of Bratt’s offensive upside, which is scary considering he had 110 points in his last 113 regular season games. (jan5)

16. Auston Matthews scored career point number 500 (and 501) this past week, becoming the youngest Leaf player to do so. He has clicked very well of late alongside Michael Bunting and William Nylander. Bunting’s underlying numbers show he is a good player in his own right, but he is certainly benefiting from playing alongside those two. My salary projections are still in the preliminary stage for the upcoming 2023 free agent class, but if he was to sign an extension right now, the numbers show it approximated at a $7.8 million cap hit. It won’t be that high with the Leafs, but he may be taking the Zach Hyman road out of town. (jan4)

17. Looking into Sam Girard, who has been a bit forgotten this year, I think his regression is in a large part based on the fact that he is missing the depth that Colorado had in previous years. This year’s team has been devastated by injuries, and is really a top-heavy team at this point. One of the repercussions is that Girard is not doing as well with having to take on more heavy lifting in the defensive zone, and playing with lower quality forwards alongside a lesser defence partner. Exemplifying that, his 5on5 shooting percentage of under 4% is ridiculously low, especially for a good player on a good team. When they inevitably trade for Gudas then Girard gets freed up, then I think we see a rebound in the second half, as that should also line up with the forwards getting healthy. Plus, he's close to his 400-game breakout threshold. This might just be the bottom of the luck curve at the moment for him. (jan4)

18. When a team is struggling like Ottawa – seven points out of a playoff spot at time of writing – it’s easy to overlook players having great seasons. Tim Stützle, for example, is producing points at a first-line rate while his expected goals impact at even strength have him in the 95^th percentile of NHL forwards. He is turning into a full-fledged superstar.

The same could be said of Jake Sanderson. He was leading Ottawa blueliners in points per minute at 5-on-5, tied with names like MacKenzie Weegar and Kris Letang. When we consider that Ottawa has the fourth-lowest goal rate at 5-on-5, that isn’t bad. The team has been very unlucky by shooting percentage and if that corrects itself in the second half, Sanderson’s production stands a reasonable chance of improvement. He is on pace for 29 points as it is; that number could be closer to 40 with some good fortune. 

With Thomas Chabot around, it’s unlikely Sanderson earns consistent top PP minutes anytime soon and the Ottawa power play is a prime role. However, the peripherals are reasonable for a rookie, he’s showing strong play at both ends, and it may not be long until we’re talking about him as an all star.

19. Stefan Noesen is earning his keep as an NHLer. The 29-year-old took his time earning a regular NHL spot, but he’s here now. The ice time is still a low 12:20 per game, which makes him an unreliable add for the longer term. But when he’s out there, he’s putting up points. In fact, his 82-game pace is for 44 of them. It took him six years to figure out the AHL and begin dominating that level, culminating in a 48-goal, 85-point effort in just 70 games last season for the Chicago Wolves. Some players just take much, much longer to figure it out. Usually, NHL teams stop caring or giving players chances by the time they’re in their late 20s. Thankfully for Noesen, that wasn’t the case with Carolina this year. Can he get more ice time? Not without a key injury hitting the roster, no. But if a winger in the top six goes down I could see him getting a look.

20. Kaapo Kakko is back on the Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider line and this time instead of a bunch of close calls and near misses, he’s putting a few points on the board. He’s more involved in the games at this level this season, with career-high rates for shot volume, Hits and BLKS. Kakko is only scratching the surface, and each time he does this he makes us think that this could be the start of it all.

21. Interesting NHL notes about the 2022 calendar year:

There were 8,984 regular-season goals scored across 1,403 games in 2022 (including 97 shootout-deciding goals), the most in a calendar year in League history. The 6.4 goals-per-game rate in 2022 was the highest in a calendar year in nearly 30 years (6.4 G/GP in 1994).

Fans threw their hats 117 times in 2022 (109 regular-season season hat tricks, eight in the playoffs) – the eighth year in League history with as many and first outside the 1980s. The others: 156 in 1981, 138 in 1988, 126 in 1984, 123 in 1983, 121 in 1985, 121 in 1982 and 118 in 1986.

Eight players scored 50+ regular-season goals in 2022 (Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, David Pastrnak, Jason Robertson, Kirill Kaprizov, Tage Thompson, Leon Draisaitl & Alex Ovechkin) – the sixth time that has ever happened. The other instances came in 1993 (9), 1992 (9), 1983 (9), 1989 (8) and 1985 (8).

The NHL had 29 players with 40+ goals in the regular-season in 2022, the most ever (ahead of 27 in 1982).

A total of 648 games were won in come-from-behind fashion in 2022 with 611 of those coming in the regular season – both totals the most in NHL history.

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