Ramblings: The Sens’ Future Offense, Landeskog Update, Goalie Insight on Gustavsson, Ingram, Elvis, Campbell, and more … (Feb. 20)

Dobber

2023-02-20

Mark this down – the Ottawa Senators will be the offensive juggernaut next season that the Buffalo Sabres have been in this one. Mark it!

All the pieces are there. So much upside in their young players – and that's without the services of Josh Norris (mostly), as well as without Alex Formenton, who would provide 45+ points on a depth line. We are getting a preview of how there is more to come, too: Ridly Greig is looking great as an NHLer much sooner than expected. His first career NHL goal Sunday:

He has four points in nine games, and he's doing this playing with checking-line players. That was Greig's first career even-strength point, as his other three have come on the power play. In a full lineup with everybody healthy, this is where you can expect him next season. But if he keeps producing with limited minutes in limited situations, he has a future in the top six further down the road.

Just when we had probably given up on Erik Brannstrom, he goes on a tear. After managing just three points in 42 games, he has five points in his last eight. He doesn't have any PPPts, but he's been getting time on the second unit again. He had been removed from that unit in mid-November, but with Jake Sanderson sidelined, Brannstrom has stepped in to fill the void.

Brannstrom also had four BLKS, and is now averaging 1.52 BLKS/GP. Last season this was 1.11.

Tim Stutzle had a three-point game Sunday against the Blues. He had four points on Feb 13 (against Calgary) and four on Jan 31 (against Montreal). All told, he has 14 in his last six games. The 21-year-old (only turned 21 last month!) is now on pace to finish with 95. His favorite linemate has been Brady Tkachuk, who has been in on 31 of his 59 points. That likely means that Norris will be the second-line guy with new linemates when he's back next year. It's hard to dethrone a player coming off a 95-point season.

Mads Sogaard remains undefeated this season, now at 2-0-1. He's a 6-7 netminder who was drafted very high (37th overall). But keep in mind – he's only 22 and he will be exempt from waivers next season and the season after that. This means that it is unlikely the Sens will turn to him in the fall, no matter how well he does. Cam Talbot's contract is up after this year, but I wouldn't be shocked if they extended him for one or two more years and give Sogaard the time he needs.

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Filip Gustavsson continues to roll. Although he fell short (barely) of a Quality Start Sunday, he did pick up the win. Since November 19 he is 13-4-1 with a 1.84 GAA and 0.935 SV%. His GSAA is +15.068 in that span, and his QS% is 73.7%. That's elite level goaltending.

This discussion is only going to heat up. Marc-Andre Fleury is a Hall-of-Fame goaltender and proven Cup winner. But Gus has clearly been superior. History (i.e., time after time, you see a team go with proven pedigree over the hotshot youngster) tells us that Fleury will be Minnesota's starter, but you have to think that the leash will be super-short.

Ryan Hartman is back on the Kirill Kaprizov line and picked up his first two-point game in nearly seven weeks. That line dominated the Preds on Sunday, so expect Hartman to continue there for the foreseeable future.

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Tommy Novak's three-point game on Sunday comes on the heels of a two-point effort Saturday. That's nearly half of his season total prior to that, compiled on one weekend. The 25-year-old had blossomed into a very good producer at the AHL level, and since being called up in December has has translated much of that to the NHL. He's doing this playing with Cole Smith and Juuso Parssinen. With Filip Forsberg sidelined, a lot of young players on Nashville are seeing better opportunities. I don't believe Novak will ever be a first line, and in fact I think he's destined to be a third-liner. But his upside is the second line and continued production in such a limited role will see that he gets there. I really take notice when a player overachieves like this, really pushing for a bigger role.

Roman Josi has 17 points in his last 14 games. He has 42 in his last 41 games (i.e., half a season).

Juuso Parssinen is pointless in the four games that Philip Tomasino has played. Before that, he had 21 in 36. His ATOI has slipped by a couple of minutes, though his PP time seems to be fairly stable. The two have not been linemates (yet).

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With two goals on Sunday, Edmonton's Warren Foegele has seven in his last 10. This is the depth scoring that the Oilers have been waiting for from this guy.

Connor McDavid needed two points to reach 800 and become the fifth youngest to reach the mark in NHL history. Wayne Gretzky, the youngest (of course) was 22 years, 325 days. McDavid is 26 years, 37 days – and he only got one point. So he's stuck at 799 for now.

After his nice little hot run of eight consecutive wins, Jack Campbell has now suffered three straight overtime losses. In each of those losses, he certainly could have stolen it for them. And that's the issue with Campbell – he's not going to steal any playoff games. The Oilers will need to win it with their skaters. Campbell gave up six goals on 42 shots against Colorado and in those three OTL he has allowed 14 on 103 shots. Not Cup-winning numbers.

Jesse Puljujarvi has three points in five games since being scratched. He also has at least one SOG and one Hit in each of those games, and has never been a minus player.

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The big gun in that Edmonton-Colorado clash wasn't McDavid, nor Nathan MacKinnon (though he picked up two points), nor Cale Makar (who was sidelined with an injury). It was JT Compher, who enjoyed a four-point game. He has eight points in his last five games. He has 22 points in his last 24 games and is already at a career high for points on the season with 38. Compher is playing with Mikko Rantanen (and Evan Rodrigues). Rantanen has been his "best linemate", in on 14 of his points. You can find our "best linemate" feature in their player profile via the line combinations tab.

Samuel Girard has awakened from his slumber now that Cale Makar is struggling with an injury (he has missed nine of the last 13 games). Girard has five points in three games and 11 in his last 10 (nine at even strength). His production was so weak prior to this run, that even now his full-season pace is for just 38 points.

Gabriel Landeskog has been out all season recovering from a knee injury. He plans to skate on his own this week and hopefully can practice with the team soon. If you own Landeskog, you should cautiously hope for his return in mid-March. This would juggle the lines quite a bit, likely costing Compher and Artturi Lehkonen in terms of ice and PP time.

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Morgan Rielly picked up two assists for the Leafs against Chicago – but he was also minus-3. He has seven points in his last seven games but is minus-3 in that span (and actually minus-3 on the season).

The Leafs have an ideal set of lines now after the big trade on Friday. I really like the top six, I like the combination of scoring and checking on the third line, and I like the hard-hitting fourth line that also has speed and a scoring touch (Noel Acciari scored his first as a Leaf on Sunday).

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
11:2221.9NYLANDER – BUNTING – MATTHEWS01-110566.716769.6
10:3720.5TAVARES – O’REILLY – MARNER1108753.3131056.5
9:3218.4JARNKROK – KAMPF – ENGVALL01-11712.571041.2
8:2616.3KERFOOT – ACCIARI – ASTON-REESE0007187.59469.2

Now all Toronto needs is for their goalies to stay health in April and May (or at least one of them!) and a tough, gritty defenseman (ahem – Vladislav Gavrikov).

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Was Patrick Kane showing off for Maple Leafs' brass? Three goals and an assist for his first four-point effort of the season. I think the Leafs are done acquiring forwards, but Kane's big evening likely caught the attention of some other teams. Playoff teams that may be able to afford a Kane cap hit: Minnesota, Winnipeg, the Islanders and Nashville. Buffalo can for sure afford him (the most cap space in the league) if he wants to go to his hometown, but they may be a tad too far out of a playoff spot to give up significant assets to acquire him.

Max Domi also had four points, and has seven in his last three games. His points-per-game average of 0.76 is the second highest of his career. Chicago signed him to a one-year contract, likely hoping he would perform well enough to flip at the trade deadline for great draft picks. The results so far have been fantastic – they could really cash in.

Undrafted goaltender Jaxson Stauber, 23, was a college star that the Hawks were quick to sign. His NHL record so far: 4-1-0, 2.77 GAA and 0.912 SV% on the third-worst team in the league. So far so good. Stauber is 6-3, a pretty good size for a goalie. There is some potential here to become an NHL backup, though I doubt he can be a starter.

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Still not great…but better than it was? Elvis Merzlikins is battling to break out of what has been a miserable season. I once considered him a top five goalie in the league in terms of talent and upside. I still believe he 'could' be a good NHL goalie, even though his numbers have steadily dropped since his great rookie campaign. Obviously Columbus agreed at one point, or they wouldn't have signed him long term for an AAV of $5.4M. Anyway, since January 8 his play has improved (though still pretty bad).

Since January 8 (nine games): 2-6-1, 3.39 GAA, 0.891 SV%, -4.056 GSAA, 3 QS

Prior to January 8 (16 games): 4-9-1, 4.72 GAA, 0.862 SV%, -20.632 GSAA (!!), 1 QS

Hey, if you ever need a glimmer of hope with a guy, I can always dig something up for you and give it a positive spin. Simply ask!

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Both goalies in that Arizona – Columbus game are trying to turn around a miserable start. Though Connor Ingram's start wasn't quite as bad as Elvis's… and his play of late has been much, much better since the turn of the calendar. Since January 6 (10 games):

3-4-3, 2.18 GAA, 0.941 SV%, +13.156 GSAA with 7 QS (70% QS%)

I knew there was a reason I liked this goalie as a prospect.

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Our DFS subscription is now on sale for $84.99 for the next 10 days. Order it here! Just a heads-up that on Deadline Day I will offer a further $10 discount – so you can wait and save more. But I think you can win more than that $10 savings between now and then, so come on!

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See you next Monday.

2 Comments

  1. Striker 2023-02-20 at 10:17

    When did Giroux and DeBrincat become checking line players? Greig has played 70.9% of his ES shifts with them since being called up in a protected role with solid 2nd line PP time.

    • Dobber 2023-02-20 at 13:27

      He has been off that line for a couple of games – playing with Brassard and Kelly now, but before that was Brassard and Joseph. I don’t write things without looking them up because I know you will call me on it ;)

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