There was no shortage of trades over the last couple of days and the Dobber Hockey team has you covered. We have a special section just for trade/signing analysis so head on over there to read up on what myself, Alex, Ian, and Dobber have to say about the trades of Patrick Kane, Filip Hronek, Jesse Puljujärvi, Mattias Ekholm, Shayne Gostisbehere, Jonathan Quick, Jake McCabe, and everyone else.

Trade Deadline Day (tomorrow, March 3^rd) is starting to look a little lean if Arizona decides not to move any of its big-ticket players. Regardless, the same Dobber squad will have the trade breakdowns all day Friday so be sure to check in periodically to see where your fantasy players are going and what it all means!

I will touch on some of the trades I didn't write about myself later in these Ramblings.  

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Rasmus Dahlin will still be out of the Buffalo lineup on Thursday when they go to Boston:

Granato says Dahlin will not play in Boston tomorrow and says right now Saturday against Tampa Bay is not looking likely.

Dahlin skated this morning, however, and he's waiting to see what the medical response is to that. He does not want to rush him back.

— Joe Yerdon (@JoeYerdon) March 1, 2023

Buffalo still has games in hand on the teams they're chasing down but the regulation loss a couple nights ago at home to Columbus was a bad one. That is one of those games in hand that needs to be two points and it was zero. If they happen to lose on the road to the league's best team, it's another game in hand that disappears. It is a wonder if Buffalo isn't going to see how the team fares against Boston and Tampa Bay this weekend and if that impacts Dahlin's status at all. We will pass along more when it's available.

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Florida provided an update on Aleksander Barkov and Sam Bennett:

#FlaPanthers coach Paul Maurice said that Sam Bennett and Sasha Barkov skated before practice this morning.

He said that both will be game-day decisions for tomorrow's game vs. #Smashville.

— Colby Guy (@ColbyDGuy) March 1, 2023

This is another team chasing down a playoff spot that is having significant contributors miss time. It is unfortunate for the Panthers because they're a fun team but losing your top two centres in the final quarter of the season for any stretch is as bad as it gets for timing.

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Cale Makar was out of the Colorado lineup again on Wednesday night as the team hosted the New Jersey Devils. Bowen Byram remained on the top PP unit in his absence. Makar did take full contact in practice so it does seem he's getting close, but he may just need a couple more days as the team is off until Saturday.

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Aside from all the trades, there was a big signing made as the Detroit Red Wings extended captain Dylan Larkin for eight seasons:

Larkin 8x$8.7M In Detroit

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) March 1, 2023

Larkin is currently working on his second straight season of 0.97 points per game with 22 goals and 57 points in 59 games. This contract will carry him through his age-34 season, which is always a concern, but at 27 years old and fewer than seven seasons' worth of games under his belt, he should still be excellent for a number of years to come.

The question for fantasy owners is: just how excellent?

One drum I have been beating more and more lately: keep Lucas Raymond far, far away from Larkin. Raymond is still a young player with a lot of growth to get through, but he is dragging down the value Larkin can muster. It isn't just an opinion because I outlined all the manner how Raymond's slotting on Larkin's line is hurting him in every way imaginable on the ice. For people that are visual learners instead, here are some viz on how the team is doing with Larkin and Raymond on the ice together at 5-on-5 this year from HockeyViz (red on offence is good, red on defence is bad):

And this is how Larkin is doing when Raymond is anywhere else but on his line:

Without inundating with more charts, it was basically the same thing in Raymond's rookie season. Yes, he has developing to do but no, he is not an actual top-6 winger right now. The reason for that is he doesn't do a whole lot to push play on the ice. Again, not my opinion, as Corey Sznajder's tracking data has Raymond working on his second straight season of below-average scoring chance contributions and his two-year controlled zone entry rate is around league average. Raymond loves being set up by Larkin but he’s not really doing much else and it's dragging Larkin's production potential down significantly.

That is what makes newly extended captain a frustrating fantasy option. Without Raymond next to Larkin over the last two seasons, the team generates 3.14 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. For comparison, that is the same number as Jack Hughes and slightly higher than Nathan MacKinnon. It is because Larkin is a tremendous offensive talent who is considerably above average in a lot of the micro-stats where Raymond is a drag, including those scoring chance contributions.

There is still lots of time for Larkin to reach his full fantasy potential, which I believe is easily over a point-per-game status. Unless Raymond finds another gear, or the team keeps him away from Larkin at all offensive strengths, it's going to be hard for Larkin to get there. It is what should keep Larkin as a frustrating fantasy option until Raymond reaches that next level in his NHL game.  

In real terms, I did a double-take when I saw the signing. My assumption was that all the public haggling over his contract meant he was looking for maybe eight years and $10-$11M a season. That he comes in with the same cap hit as Patrik Laine and a lower cap hit than Jeff Skinner after all this is nothing short of funny, to me.

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Filip Hronek heading to Vancouver is interesting from the Detroit side. It gives them cap space and draft capital to work with, but it also parts with the guy who had been the number-2 behind Moritz Seider for the last two seasons. Jake Walman's emergence does make Hronek expendable, in a sense, but it seems possible (to me) that this is just part of going to get a more impactful player from another team, and there are a couple of those available.

Hronek is earning $4.4M this season and next before being an RFA. This seems fine for a long-term solution, supposing it works, but Hronek isn't a high-end impact defenceman at the moment. They hope he can be, but that improvement is yet to come.

From a fantasy perspective, he should get similar minutes now given the state of Vancouver's blue line, but the power play minutes are gone. Quinn Hughes has that top role locked unless he's injured so the best hope for Hronek is a 3F/2D power play at some points. Hronek has received 16 of his 38 points on the power play this season, while every Vancouver defenceman combined except Quinn Hughes has five. There could be a hit to his value if the Canucks don't alter their power play. However, with some of their remaining top forwards potentially on the block, nothing is assured yet.

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Jakob Chychrun being traded to Ottawa is the big piece the team had been searching for. It leaves open questions about Alex DeBrincat's future, and the ability to improve the second-line centre position if Shane Pinto doesn't become a long-term solution, but it solidifies this team's top-four defence for a couple years at least. Boasting Chychrun, Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson, and Artem Zub, they have filled a position that was a weakness in very recent memory.

He likely gets second power play slotting – why break up that top unit? – and that could hurt Sanderson's value. They could easily go with a 3F/2D setup and leave one of Derick Brassard or Mathieu Joseph off the power play entirely. He has never been reliant on PP production for fantasy value, though, so even secondary minutes is a lateral move at worst. It does give the team another shooter, of sorts, which is good or bad depending on your perspective.

Juuso Välimäki is about to get a lot more ice time with Chychrun and Shayne Gostisbehere both gone.

I do like the Carolina pickup of Gostisbehere. It gives them another power-play quarterback with a bit of a different style than Brent Burns, and variety is a good thing. Brady Skjei could lose his role, as Sanderson in Ottawa, but a 3F/2D power play is possible. Seems unlikely he's skating over 20 minutes a night, though, so efficiency will be crucial.

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Colorado is a team I enjoy watching, Lars Eller is a former Hab I enjoyed watching, so seeing him get dealt to Colorado was nice. He hasn't been playing the same these last couple of season as he had been the few years prior, and he turns 34 years old in May. All the same, if he's used in a third/fourth-line role, those guys aren't getting a big spotlight in Colorado. He may not be asked to play 15-16 minutes per contest for the Avs as he had been these last two seasons for the Caps – his new team has just six forwards averaging 15 minutes a night, and eight sitting at 13:30 or higher. Depending how much they want to use him, ice time could go down a bit here. There isn't much fantasy value outside the deepest multi-cat formats but I'm just happy as a fan.

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