Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

With three weeks left in the regular season, most head-to-head leagues are in the midst of critical playoff matchups. At this point in the year, most players are known commodities—we know who is on our team and what they are capable of. What managers are looking for are effective streamers to help make up gaps in specific categories. All leagues have slightly different categories, but this week I will highlight several young players who have been hot lately and might just have the jam to push your team over the top.

Tommy Novak (NSH)

I must confess, my sights have been so firmly set on Philip Tomasino and Luke Evangelista in the Predators' system all year that I more or less slept on Novak, who has vastly outperformed both of them. I kept thinking that his hot streak would flame out, but he now has 33 points in 39 games on the year, including 22 in his last 18. He has both scored in bunches (six multi-point outings) and been incredibly consistent (only five games without a point) over that stretch and seemingly emerged as a reliable, dynamic option for the notoriously low-scoring Predators as a 25-year-old after spending four years marinating in the AHL.

AHL production can be tricky that way: from players of a certain age (say, under 22 or 23), it often is an excellent indicator of imminent NHL success. But for every Mikko Rantanen, whose success as an AHL rookie translated very quickly to the highest level, there are a ton of Seth Griffiths, Alex Barre-Boulets, and Andrew Poturalskis. These players consistently finish at or above a point per game in the minors but year after year fail to crack their respective NHL lineups. Something about their game does not translate well enough in the eyes of the coaching staff, and that's that.

This is an area I would personally like to dig into more for future articles: what do these AHL standouts who never really gain NHL traction tend to lack in their skillsets? My guess is some combination of not being able to handle the speed (hockey sense, IQ, processing) and physicality. If anyone has thoughts on that, I would love to hear them on Twitter or in the comments.

Regardless, Novak now looks like he belongs to the first group and not the second despite the fact that he is much older than players traditionally are when they successfully graduate from the minors. He followed up a solid draft year season in the USHL back in 2015 (Nashville took him in the 3rd round that year) with four middle-of-the-road NCAA campaigns, scoring 88 points in 129 games—again, not the type of numbers that scream NHL scoring star. After finishing college, he immediately became a consistent AHL producer, putting up 134 in 154 games but seemed to be following the path of the AHL lifers mentioned above.

Novak is a defensively responsible, playmaking pivot who never stops battling and consistently plays a strong two-way game. He fit in very well with Milwaukee, which tends to ice a competitive, veteran-heavy group that puts team success ahead of individual performances, and now is also finding a similar niche with Nashville. With the Predators' playoff hopes fading and big names like Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen currently out of the lineup, we are seeing an unprecedented level of opportunity for Nashville's young players right now. Here were their top two forward lines in a recent game against Seattle:

Matt Duchene – Cody Glass – Phil Tomasino

Kiefer Sherwood – Tommy Novak – Luke Evangelista

Now check out the relative play-driving performances of those two lines:

Duchene – Glass – Tomasino = 23% Corsi For

Sherwood – Novak – Evangelista = 88% Corsi For

The other two forward groups finished with CF% of 33 and 60 (in limited minutes), so the Novak line was clearly doing most of the heavy lifting even though all three members of that line featured heavily with the AHL squad in 2022-23. Impressive stuff from the youngsters.

Tommy Novak cannot be stopped.

What an incredible finish to this one. pic.twitter.com/WmiUHaQkNg

— Alex Daugherty (@AlexDaugherty1) March 13, 2023

Will Novak be able to sustain this scoring success down the stretch? At this point, I am wary of betting against him, but there are some red flags here: he does not shoot a lot (under two per game) and basically does not hit or contribute penalty minutes, so if he is not scoring, he is not helping your fantasy team. And his high shooting percentage (19%) and PDO (1027) suggest that he is overachieving in that department. On the other hand, his secondary assist rate (33%) is relatively low and his IPP (72%) is quite high, both of which suggest that he is heavily involved in the scoring that happens with him on the ice and is in fact due for a few more assists.

The Predators have 12 games remaining. At his current rate, that would mean Novak would put up 10 more points. Given the quasi-AHL squad Nashville is icing right now, their fading playoff hopes, and some of Novak's over-extended metrics, however, I would knock a couple points off that projection. That still puts him at eight more points on the year (55-point pace), which still might be better than anyone available on the wire depending on the size of your league. For those in keeper and dynasty leagues, he is worth a keep if you can fit him as he seems like a strong bet to take a run at 60+ points over a full campaign.

Love this view of Tommy Novak's goal, his 13th of the year.

Look at that tip! pic.twitter.com/8BeNbTxgbL

— Alex Daugherty (@AlexDaugherty1) March 15, 2023

Youth Movement in Philly

The Flyers have been….soaring lately despite being one of the league's worst teams this year. They have averaged nearly five goals per game over their last five games and have made life difficult for teams like Minnesota, Florida, and Buffalo who are fighting tooth and nail for playoff spots.

Like Nashville, Philadelphia has been icing a youth-heavy squad lately and still somehow capturing lightning in a bottle. As above, here are the top three Flyers lines and their shot-driving metrics from their recent game against the Wild (in order of ice time):

Owen Tippett – Joel Farabee – Noah Cates = 65% Corsi For

Brendan Lemieux – Morgan Frost – Tyson Foerster = 53% CF

James van Riemsdyk – Kevin Hayes – Wade Allison = 68% CF

Tippett, 24, has continued his breakout season with a 56-point pace in the third quarter. On top of the production, he is also putting up nearly three shots, two hits, and a block per game. That is a top-notch, keeper-worthy fantasy profile. It is hard to say whether or not managers have fully caught on to him either because he was considered a bust for so long when he was still in Florida. I would consider him an excellent trade target in keeper formats over the off-season.

ST. HAT TRICK'S DAY ☘️☘️☘️

Owen Tippett bags his first career @Enterprise hat trick with a trio of tallies vs. Buffalo! pic.twitter.com/qqnxUGlkgb

— NHL (@NHL) March 18, 2023

Farabee, 23, has six points in his last four games but has actually performed worse and worse over the course of the year. His shot rate and ice time have declined accordingly, and he has still not taken the expected step forward after passing his 200-game Breakout Threshold earlier this year. It is possible he will need closer to 300 games given all the injury setbacks he has struggled to overcome. He has been hot lately, but I would be reluctant to rely on him down the stretch given his inconsistency this year.

Frost, 23, has five points in his last three games. Like Tippett, he has finally taken a meaningful step forward this year and offers decent category coverage as a streaming option down the stretch. If you take out the first 20-odd games of 2022-23, he has been scoring at above a 50-point pace this year. He also offers a couple shots, a hit, and about five face-off wins per game.

Finally, Foerster, 21, the most prospect-y player of this bunch, has six points in his last four games—a very encouraging sight for fantasy managers who have been waiting on him since he was drafted in 2020 after a promising, goal-heavy OHL campaign (80 points in 62 games). He has done quite well with AHL Lehigh this year (39 in 57) and is now showing that he has what it takes to translate his scoring instincts to the NHL. I would be a bit reluctant to rely on him for fantasy playoff purposes given that he is the least battle-tested of this group, but he is having an excellent audition for 2023-24.

Tyson Foerster with a toe drag release snipe to tie is up AGAIN. 🤯

Foerster has six points in his first seven career games. pic.twitter.com/JVRc5Y9jCo

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 24, 2023

On the whole, I feel that this Flyers team is overachieving lately. As stated above, they are scoring nearly five goals per game lately after averaging under three on the year. So although some young, exciting Philly players are popping up on the Hot Streaks lists right now, I would advise avoiding all but Tippett and maybe Frost unless you are desperate. Those two will at least help you a bit in other categories but the others will likely fizzle out when you need them most.

Barrett Hayton (ARI)

Speaking of much-delayed breakouts, how about Arizona's Hayton? A former fifth-overall pick from back in 2018, many managers have been through the ringer waiting on this kid, but his 14 points in his last ten games suggest that he has finally arrived—which, to toot my own horn for a moment, I predicted back in August and November. He is shooting the puck (2.2), hitting (1.0), and emerging as a sneaky-strong option in leagues that count face-off wins (7.5).

Goodness gracious, Barrett Hayton!!! 😱 pic.twitter.com/YriyjkYZcC

— NHL (@NHL) February 27, 2022

Unlike the streaky options in Philadelphia right now, Hayton has been producing consistently since late January: it took him until then to get going, but he has put up 25 points in his last 26 games since. His ice time is climbing steadily at both even strength and with the man advantage, and he has been holding down the 1C position between Nick Schmaltz and Clayton Keller. Like I said about Tippett a couple months ago, this kid is sure looking like a top-line option lately.

Arizona is currently tied with Philadelphia for sixth-last in the league. The prolific Dylan Guenther is on the way soon, and while their shot at Connor Bedard seems slim at this point, they will still come away from the 2023 draft with another dynamic talent—say, Zach Benson? Hayton's proficiency at the face-off dot suggests he will stay down the middle, especially given that Arizona is very weak at center. That means he will continue to play with the Coyotes' top players moving forward, so his value should be secure for both the last few weeks of 2022-23 and beyond.

If he is somehow sitting on your league's wire (46% owned in Yahoo), Hayton would make a solid depth add for teams pushing to win in the playoffs.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.