Geek of the Week: Optimizing Your Lineups For the Endgame
Scott Royce
2023-03-26
Well folks, we have reached the endgame! For those of you in head-to-head leagues, it's playoff season, and if you're in a roto league then there's only a couple more weeks to make your move! Regardless of your format, the end of the fantasy season is almost upon us, and the moves you make now could be the difference between whether you finish first, third, or out of the money entirely! This is the time of year where you need to find a way to stuff the stat sheet by any means possible. This week I am focusing my waiver wire recommendations with extra focus on guys that play on off-nights this upcoming week. Getting in these extra starts on nights where there are less games can make all the difference, so let's see who is out there!
Leading off this week is Compher, who has been a fixture for the Avs' middle-six forwards group for the last number of years. He's never been a real flashy player, and hasn't held much fantasy intrigue throughout his career up until this year either, but he does play a real solid game on the ice. This year he has shown a bit more promise offensively, posting 48 points through 71 games. This marks a career high in points, and by a fair margin as well.
There's a few big reasons as to why I am recommending him now though. First off is that he is getting looks on the team's top power-play unit alongside Colorado's big guns. That alone has some upside potential to it, as the Avs man advantage is lethal. Additionally, Compher has points in five of his last six games, with the last three points coming on the aforementioned power play. So he is making the most of his opportunities and is riding a nice point streak as of late. Not to mention the Avs are rounding into playoff form and starting to look dangerous again. They've won six of their last seven games.
But a big reason why Compher could be big for you next week is his schedule. Now the Avs only play three games next week, but when they play is the important part. They have games Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday next week. All three of those days are lighter scheduled days, especially the latter of the two. You won't need to bench someone else to fit him into your lineup, so he should be able to start for you no problem. And getting starts on these off-nights is massive right now and could be the difference at the end of the week!
Aside from his offense, Compher is also a very competent faceoff guy as well, and can be slotted in on the wing to get you draws if your league tracks faceoffs, so that's another plus to having him. Normally I don't recommend guys who have over a 30% ownership in leagues, and while Compher is sitting at about 50% right now, a lot of players are in flux with it being so late in the season. He's definitely worth taking a look at for next week for the reasons I listed above.
Ah yes, ol' reliable! Pageau is one of my staple go-to guys when I need to stuff the statsheet and he's seemingly always available when I need him. I've recommended him multiple times over the past few years, but this week in particular is a great time to add the feisty forward! I should preface this that if you are hurting for offense, Pageau might not be the guy for you, but he will get you literally everything else you could ever ask for. That being said though, he does have six points in his last six games, so he's not completely incapable of producing some offense for you.
What you really want Pageau for is his excellent peripheral stats. In 62 games this year he's laid out 156 hits which averages out to be just over two and a half per game. They are one of a handful of teams with four games on their schedule next week, but more importantly is when the games are. He also is one of the more capable guys in between the dots, winning 56.3% of his faceoffs this year. Throw in his 53 blocked shots this season, and you have a guy that gets you a little bit of everything.
The Isles are currently working on locking down their playoff spot as well, and I always like having players on teams that are still playing meaningful games. Next week they have four games on their schedule which is a plus right out of the gate. They play Monday, Wednesday, Saturday, Sunday this week. That's a pretty good schedule for fantasy, with Saturday being the only real day that is super crowded. Wednesday is one of the lightest days next week, so you could easily pencil Pageau in there. He is owned in just under 25% of Yahoo leagues, and 37% of Fantrax leagues.
The last player I wanted to touch on would probably be better for a quick streaming start or two early next week. Sundqvist is a pretty boring read if you look up his career stats. Not much jumps out at you, but I do think he has been pretty good since being dealt to the Wild at the trade deadline. He doesn't log a ton of minutes, which obviously isn't great, but in his middle-six role with the Wild, he has managed to do okay.
In his 10 games with his new club, he's managed seven points including three goals and two assists over his last six games. In addition to his solid offensive production with Minnesota, he has been chipping in physically as well, averaging 1.5 hits per game during his stint with his new club. If he can keep this up for another couple weeks, he could provide a nice mix of hitting and supplemental offense.
The reason I recommend him for this week though is because of the Wild's favorable schedule. They only play three games, but two of them come on less-busy days (Monday and Wednesday), while the other is on Saturday. If you have a spot on your roster to stream a player, maybe pickup Sundqvist for Monday and Wednesday and then switch him out for someone else who plays on Friday or Sunday. Sundqvist isn't owned in many leagues, so you shouldn't have any problems getting a hold of him. He's not the flashiest option, but he could be worth a shot for a couple of games if you need a body on an off-night.
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That's all for this week. Hopefully everyone is optimizing their lineups and getting every last drop of value they can on a night-to-night basis. It's actually pretty crazy how much of a difference it can make when you properly stream players efficiently down the stretch. I see matchups in my head-to-head leagues where guys have 10-15 more games played then their opponent and those guys are almost always coming out on top. Obviously you need to have the high-end talent on your team to carry the workload too, but the depth moves should not be overlooked! Have a great week everyone.