The Journey: High-Upside Depth Options for Restocking Depleted Farm Rosters
Ben Gehrels
2023-04-08
Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.
One of my favorite strategies in leagues with farm systems is tacking on several enticing prospects to a pro-level deal to get it done, then signing a bunch of replacements for free off the wire. This approach is much more difficult in a huge 20-team dynasty than a smaller 12-team keeper, but there are always valuable unowned players out there—it is just a matter of digging deep and knowing what to look for.
Of course, point totals hold limited value when assessing prospects. Especially when taking deeper dives into the prospect realm, there are always high-scoring players in junior (usually undersized) who never pan out as professionals. Where possible, I like to watch footage, check out historical comparables, read scouting reports, and access manually tracked microstats.
But usually the first "green flag," so to speak, that puts a player on my radar is still their raw production. If they are producing above-average totals year over year, ideally across multiple leagues, especially on bad teams without a ton of scoring support, that is often enough to sign them to an open slot as a wait-and-see situation.
Our editing team at Dobber Prospects is currently working on an Organizational Rankings project that will rate each NHL team's prospect pool according to the strength of their top 15 prospects—stay tuned for that in the coming weeks! For each team, I ran into a number of players I had never heard of but who impressed me with their scoring output and potential fantasy upside. If you find yourself heading into the offseason needing to restock your farm depth, consider adding one of these late-round gems.
By the way, did you know you can sort all NHL prospects by their Dobber Prospects NHL Upside and Certainty ratings? Check it out here!
Nicholas Moldenhauer (TOR)
Upside: 8.0
Certainty: 7.5
Age: 18
Moldehauer's stocks were held down in his draft year because he got kicked in the face with a skate shortly after returning from mono. Talk about tough luck.
Understandably, his point totals with the Chicago Steel (USHL) would almost definitely have been higher had he been at full power all year. Still, 43 points in 41 games as a draft-eligible is quite respectable. He then made up for lost time in 2022-23, scoring 65 points in only 50 games in his D+1, helping to lead a stacked Steel team headlined by 2024 first-overall favourite Mack Celibrini. He has committed to the University of Michigan, where he will again play alongside a number of future high-profile NHLers.
Moldenhauer has an above-average impact in all three zones and currently profiles as a strong, two-way player with middle-six upside. He boasts high-end skating and thinks the game at an advanced level, applying his vision to read and anticipate plays on both offence and defence—pretty solid for a third-round pick.
His Hockey Prospecting comparables read like a who's who of solid-upside utility forwards: Jared McCann, John Madden, Kyle Okposo, Dillon Dube, Cody Eakin, etc. He also has a decently high Star Potential rating of 20%. Put it all together, and Moldenhauer is absolutely worth taking a swing on in deeper leagues.
Quinn Finley (NYI)
Upside: 5.5
Certainty: 6.5
Age: 18
Finley actually has a couple interesting things in common with Moldenhauer: he sustained a significant injury in his draft year (broken collarbone) and played part of his D+1 with the Chicago Steel (USHL). His scoring pace increased slightly after moving to the Steel even though he played a depth role there after being the focal point of Madison's offence. He is a quick-skating sniper type whose career trajectory is headed steadily up.Â
Look for him to spend a couple years at the college level, where he will debut with Wisconsin in 2023-24, before heading to Bridgeport (AHL). He appears to be more of a boom-bust option than Moldenhauer, whose balanced skill-set gives him increased NHL certainty. But the benefit of playing in the weak Islanders system versus Toronto's crowded pipeline is that Finley has a much easier path to the NHL than his former Steel teammate: it will be easier to leapfrog one of William Dufour, Ruslan Iskhakov, or the underwhelming Simon Holmstrom than big-named prospects like Nick Robertson and Matthew Knies.
If you can afford to wait, Finley, who is still only 18, makes a decent, potentially high-upside stash for now.
Jacob Melanson (SEA)
Upside: 6.5
Certainty: 5.0
Age: 19
Melanson scored an impressive 94 points in 59 QMJHL games this year. That level of production, however, is actually the bare minimum for a scoring forward in their Draft+2 in the high-octane Quebec league, and his steadily falling Star Potential reflects that reality (15% → 6% → 4%).
Still, we are talking about a former fifth-round pick here. And 50-goal scorers who can calmly finish off passes like this brilliant feed from Josh Roy (MON) offer more intrigue than most other depth options. He tied for fourth-overall in goals with Zachary Bolduc (STL), the 17th overall pick in Melanson's year.
Melanson has a solid frame (6-0, 205 lbs) and plays a heavy-hitting physical game, which means he offers added peripheral coverage in multi-cat formats. His 85 penalty minutes in 54 games last year easily led his team; this year, he lowered his time in the box to roughly a minute per game, suggesting that he has learned how to play with an edge without consistently hurting his team.
Melanson is one of the better options in the Kraken system once you get past Matty Beniers, Shane Wright, and Jagger Firkus. Like the others, he is still young and likely a few years away from seeing NHL action. Watch his next step carefully. If he ends up moving to the AHL and excelling, his first call up might not be too far away.
Miko Matikka (ARI)
Upside: 6.5
Certainty: 6.5
Age: 19
Matikka, a big power forward type (6-3, 187 lbs) with average skating ability and a strong one-timer. continues the trend of prospects who missed time in their draft year with a significant injury (undisclosed). He planned to play with NCAA Denver this year but ran into visa issues and ended up playing with Finley for USHL Madison instead. Like Finley, he was also traded mid-year—to low-scoring Waterloo—but prior to the trade was leading Madison with 35 points in 28 games.
His dip in scoring with Waterloo (17 in 26) is concerning and raises questions about whether or not he can carry a line on his own. Currently sitting at a measly 2% Star Potential, Matikka nevertheless bears watching as he finally debuts next year with Denver, a strong program that took home the national title in 2021-22. He plays a physical game and could be another Lawson Crouse coming up for this young Arizona squad.
Valtteri Puustinen (PIT)
Upside: 6.7
Certainty: 7.0
Age: 23
Puustinen is much older and closer to NHL action than the others on this list but I see great opportunity and sense some momentum building for the small Finnish winger lately. He is a late-blooming longshot reminiscent of Arizona rookie Matias Maccelli in that he had a good deal of pro-level experience under his belt before making his NHL debut. Puustinen has played three full campaigns in the Liiga and posted 81 points in 105 games over his age 20 and 21 seasons. That is high-level production, especially at such a young age.
If that overseas performance was not enough, he now has two strong years in the AHL (95 in 142) on his resume as well. He clearly has nothing left to prove at lower levels, and the Penguins are badly in need of a player—in particular a winger—from their system to step up and offer some zip alongside Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin.
Players Puustinen's size (5-9) who take this long to make the NHL do not tend to become scoring stars, but he is first in line in the depleted Penguins' system (as far as I can tell) and should transition smoothly to the highest level because he is no stranger to professional hockey. If you are looking for depth scoring support as early as 2023-24, Puustinen is a great bet.
Here is his only NHL point from his only NHL game, a savvy little pass to set up a teammate on a breakaway:
Other Intriguing Depth Options
Caedan Bankier (MIN)
Upside: 4.0
Certainty: 6.0
Age: 20
Ryder Korczak (NYR)
Upside: 7.0
Certainty: 7.0
Age: 21
Ruslan Iskhakov (NYI)
Upside: 6.5
Certainty: 5.0
Age: 23
Leevi Merilainen (OTT)
Upside: 6.0
Certainty: 6.5
Age: 21
Tucker Robertson (SEA)
Upside: 6.5
Certainty: 6.5
Age: 21
Fraser Minten (TOR)
Upside: 8.0
Certainty: 8.5
Age: 19
Nils Aman (VAN)
Upside: 5.5
Certainty: 5.0
Age: 23
Alexander Suzdalev (WAS)
Upside: 7.5
Certainty: 6.0
Age: 19
Dmitry Kuzmin (WPG)
Upside: 6.5
Certainty: 6.5
Age: 20
Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.