Ramblings: Playoff Pick Recaps; Leafs Lose; Rangers go for a Romp & More (Apr 19)
Alexander MacLean
2023-04-19
We have playoff hockey here, with the first round being the best time while players are playing at 100% and haven't been doing it for long enough to be worn-out or injured. Enjoy the best hockey of the season while you can!
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A lot of us have playoff pools, and even those of you that don't like the pool side of it still enjoy trying to make projections on how things will play out. Well here is the list of how all of our DobberHockey writers think things will unfold.
Three out of the four of my picks playing in Monday's games lost game one, but one game does not make a series, and I am still confident in all of my picks.
That being said, the injury to Joe Pavelski on a controversial hit by Matt Dumba, is concerning for the Stars and their hopes for a long playoff run. He was unsteady leaving the ice, and though I'm not a doctor and head injuries have uncertain timelines at the best of times, it's likely that we don't see Pavelski back for at least a week or two. The Stars have some depth, and the additions of Max Domi and Evgeni Dadonov look a lot more important now.
I have the Stars pulling out the series in five, which may be tough to do now, but Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson, and Jake Oettinger should prove too much for Minnesota to handle over the course of the rest of the series.
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I won't cover Monday's games too much more, other than to quickly run through my picks in those series and how I'm feeling about them.
Bruins in five – This still looks like an excellent bet, and it may even be more likely for it to end in four than six or seven at this point, regardless of the health of Patrice Bergeron. There doesn't seem to be a need to rush him back at least.
Oilers in five – Like the Dallas series, this prediction is at the brink now, after LA pulled out the big overtime win. Connor McDavid has been too good this season that he won't be kept quiet for long. However, what does give me pause is that LA has two of the better shutdown centres in the league in Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault, and generally a very responsible and mobile skater core overall. If there is a team that can shut down Edmonton without a brick wall in net, it's LA.
Islanders in six – The first game was decided by one goal, and it won't surprise anyone if the rest of the series goes that way as well. With Ilya Sorokin in net, the Islanders have the x-factor that I think eventually tilts the series in their favour. Mathew Barzal being back really makes a huge difference up front too. Him and Bo Horvat led all NYI forwards in ice time with over 21 minutes each in game one.
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For those of you with late drafts, you can still buy the customizable Dobber Hockey playoff guide – get it here.
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Artemi Panarin ingited the offence in game one for the Rangers, assisting on the first two goals of the game by Chris Kreider and linemate Vladimir Tarasenko. Vincent Trocheck has been centering the Russian pair, and should pick up his share of points through the post-season as well, especially if the Rangers go far. He did slow down a little in the final quarter of the season,
A defenceman factored in on every goal for the Rangers last night as well, with Adam Fox (four) and K'Andre Miller each picking assists, and Ryan Lindgren adding a goal. I've spoken at length in the past about how high I am on K'Andre, and Fox was my pre-season Norris pick. With the forward core on the Rangers, there are enough points to share between the two, and even to trickle enough down to the others including Jacob Trouba and Ryan Lindgren. For Fox's sake, it's good that Ryan Lindgren is healthy again, as Fox struggled in the quarter of the season that Lindgren missed.
New Jersey had an excellent rise this year, but looked out-matched in game one. They don't have the elite goalie that the Rangers do, but the depth on offence and defence is fairly well matched. We'll see if Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier can step up the rest of the way and make a bigger impact.
If they don't then this series isn't going to game six as I had on my predictions (with a NYR series win).
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The Leafs came out looking like they already knew they were going to lose in game seven again. Maybe I was a little bold projecting them to win in five, because after last-night's loss that is going to be a very steep climb.
Michael Bunting was ejected for a hit to the head. The call was fair, but overall having watched the Leafs over the last number of months, he has been heavily targeted by officials. I wonder about him in the regular season next year, maybe feeling like he has to hold back a bit, throwing off his game which is so effective because he plays on the edge. It could be that he also becomes a cap casualty this summer, and not playing in Toronto's offence next year would likely drop his offensive numbers.
As for Tampa, this is starting to feel like the anti-San Jose from the 2010s, where you knew they were going to win a few rounds, but picking them to win the cup was a fool's errand. With this Tampa team, regardless of the regular season, or their first-round opponent, this is a team that you know is going to win at least a few rounds, and very possibly win another cup with this core.
Key for the Lightning were Braden Point with two goals (including one with 1.1 seconds left in the second period), as well as a goal and two assists from both Nikita Kucherov and Corey Perry. Both Perry and Patrick Maroon are looking to make their fourth-straight Stanley Cup Final appearances.
I need to stop betting against the Lightning.
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Vegas and Winnipeg is an interesting matchup, as Vegas has Mark Stone back in the lineup, giving them the deeper group of skaters to counter Winnipeg's better goalie. I picked Vegas for the sweep, mainly because I don't have a lot of faith in the Winnipeg core to come together when it counts. However, they proved me wrong in last night's game, staking Connor Hellebuyck to an easy win. It was all big names in on the points, and if Winnipeg does play more than seven games in the playoffs, it will be because of the top-half of the roster.
For his part, Laurent Brossoit played well, though with the late goal a start in game two is now anything but assured. The smart money now is probably on Jonathan Quick. The Golden Knights could also further get into some line shuffling, and it would surprise me not to see a loaded top-six tomorrow night while they still have last change on home ice.
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In the Colorado/Seattle series, I picked Seattle in seven, banking on the Cup hangover, the injuries that the Avalanche have had to deal with, and Seattle's analytical approach to their deep roster construction all tipping the scales in the Kraken's favour. I picked a few Seattle players with the last few selections of the forum playoff draft (picks shown here) because it's always a low-risk, high-reward strategy to grab the top-few options on an overlooked team. If they win a couple of rounds that's a huge boost to you and no one else in the pool.
Eeli Tolvanen scored the first playoff goal in Seattle Kraken history, doing what he does best: scoring goals, shooting the puck, and adding a few hits for good measure. The move to Seattle was necessary to kick-start his scoring, but like in Nashville, Tolvanen won't hit his ceiling in Seattle's spread-out offense.
Alex Wennberg was the only one with a multi-point game for the Kraken. He has quietly rebounded of late after a rough stretch of years posting under a point every-other-game. He finished the season with 12 points in 13 games, and has a modest history of production in the playoffs as well. Someone to keep an eye on.
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Six road teams winning in game ones this year really feels like the early overall storyline. It’s possible we see a couple goalie changes as a result. For tonight’s games, I’m most curious about how the offence for the Oilers and Stars bounce back. Any projections that you want to drop in the comments?
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If you're looking for a fun draft style to change things up a bit and want something other than players, then there was a simple and very fun setup that we ran last offseason on the forums. There's a link here to our discussion thread, for the league where each of the eight of us drafted four team offences, four team defences, and four team goalies, in a roto style rankings pool. We get points for how many goals each team scores on offence, the fewer shots that a team defence gives up, and the fewer goals a team's goaltenders allows.
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See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter@alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.