How do you stop a freight train? Or, in different words, what do the Toronto Maple Leafs need to change now – tonight – to knock off those prowling Florida Panthers? I've often said that a Stanley Cup playoff series doesn't favor the team that's "just happy to be here," but that might apply to both sides in this one. The Panthers certainly were "favored" only to be cleaning out their lockers by now, and the Leafs are in their first quarterfinal (second series) since Sheldon Keefe was playing for the Hershey Bears.

So, my next metric is desperation. Toronto had their playoff plans to face Tampa Bay since January. Florida has been playing do-or-die that long. And coming from behind so many times – only Boston had more third-period goals this season. Can the Leafs turn up, or KEEP, the level of intensity that it took to beat the Lightning?  Because Tuesday evening's contest proved that their "A-minus" game won't be enough. 

Last, look at the goaltending matchup. Sergei Bobrovsky did not have his best year – 3.07 GAA, 0.901 Sv%, and Florida is only here because Alex Lyon carried them to this point. However, he does have two Vezina trophies on his shelf, and is used to being a workhorse. Ilya Samsonov had an NHL top-five goalie season – 2.33 GAA, 0.919 Sv% – however he's never started even half of his team's (Washington or Toronto) games through a regular season. I'll not be surprised to see Matt Murray, who's resumed skating, or even Joseph Woll (!) relieve the starter if a game gets out of hand. (Woll's AHL stats, 2.37, 0.927.) The schedule for Round Two is netminder-friendly, with two-day gaps twice in south Florida.  

Prior to Game One, the Leafs and Oilers had the best odds, per BetMGM, to hoist the Cup. Both lost their first game. Toronto has one chance to justify those oddsmakers tonight. My DFS picks for Wednesday are in bold. DraftKings numbers.

For the playoffs, the algorithm changes. You've got to pick winners. I'll play Auston Matthews ($9400) and William Nylander ($6400) to pull the Leafs through, adding lower-cost Matthew Knies ($3200). Nylander came up empty Tuesday but had seven SOG. Knies has been the energy guy they need and has four points (1+3) in his first six playoff appearances. Captain John Tavares and Mitchell Marner need these teammates to come through!   DraftKings requires the bettor to include three of the four teams, so I picked Marc Staal ($2800) mostly for blocked shots.

The night game, I'll play Dallas to even that one, too.  Jake Oettinger ($8300) had an uncharacteristic blip late in the first period against the Kraken – three scores against in under a minute of clock. That's not his pedigree. And the Stars' top line of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz ($6900), and Tyler Seguin ($5700) must show up on the scoresheet. I'll play Jani Hakanpaa ($3000) from the blue line. Hakanpaa had an assist, three shots, three hits, and seven blocks Tuesday, and his continued confidence can help success.  

Wild card? Add Wyatt Johnston ($4300). The rookie tied much-hyped Matty Beniers for goals scored, and deserved the Calder nomination over Owen Power, in my opinion.  Snubbed players tend to play with an extra edge.

Ok, ok, like most of the rest of you, I would've picked both losing teams Tuesday – so we'll be entertained tonight. Good luck.