Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

With the 2022-23 regular season in the books, many can't help but reflexively look at a player's season-long totals in assessing his performance. But avid readers of this column know that doing so can be a mistake in many cases. Who was for real, versus those whose totals aren't reliable? Time to find out, this time for Jason Robertson, Alex Tuch, and Jared McCann. Gather your thoughts and try to land on the player whose totals were indeed just right, versus the one who ran hot and the third, who did worse than should have occurred. Then, after reading, see if you were spot on or missed the mark.

Jason Robertson (82 games, 46G, 63A 313 SOG, 41 PPPts, 18:50 TOI, 3:19 PP, 66.3% PP%)

It may be a surprise given where he is now, but Robertson wasn't picked until the second round and his first pro season saw him only post 47 points in 60 AHL games. Yet the Stars felt that was enough for him to earn a ticket to the NHL, where as a rookie he impressed with 45 points in 51 games. From there though, things have gone nowhere but up, first with an 88-point pace in 2021-22 and then this season becoming one of the premier wingers in the game with 109 points. Can Robertson top that, or might he have found his realistic ceiling or perhaps even overachieved? For now at least, he seems right where he should be.

If, in looking at Robertson's numbers, you get a sense that they seem high for the ice time he received, it's because that is indeed the case. In fact, his 18:50 per game ranks as the fifth lowest TOI average among the 62 instances of forwards scoring even just 100+ points dating back to the 2000-01 season. What happened the following season for the other four? Three saw at least a 20-point scoring rate decrease. Still, the lowest ice time belonged to none other than Matthew Tkachuk in 2021-22, whose scoring rate rose for 2022-23; but that was thanks for a rise in TOI of 2:32 per game, with 1:31 of that on the PP.

It's an arguably worse situation in terms of the man advantage with JRob's ice time. Of the again 62 instances of forwards who had 40+ PPPts in a season dating back to 2000-01, his 3:19 per game was second lowest, with only Blake Wheeler in 2017-18 being less. What happened to Wheeler's PPPt totals thereafter, first they dropped to 33 then two seasons later to 22. In fact, just six other forwards of the 62 didn't have at least 30 seconds more PP time than Robertson did for 2022-23.

Does that mean he's doomed? I know I like to rely upon comparables, and this is some pretty strong data; however, I think JRob might just be a unicorn. If we look at the last two seasons, Robertson's ice time average was above 19:00 in three of the eight quarters, namely Q2 and Q3 this season, and Q3 in 2021-22. In those three quarters, he tallied a total of 62 points in 58 games, meaning in the other five quarters, he had 126 points in 98 games, for a scoring rate of 105 points. In just the three quarters where he failed to average even 18:00 per game, he amassed 68 points in 51 games, for a scoring rate of 109. The point paces of 105 and 109 are, of course, right in line with the 109 he tallied for the entire 2022-23 season.

How about the power play though? It's more a mixed bag in terms of his performance, as he was productive both when he got a lot of PP time as well as when he didn't, and also the opposite was true in that he had some just okay quarters when he had more PP time than his average, but also some when his average was less. In other words, far less telling data.

Robertson seemingly is the rare example of a player who can thrive when he plays less. I wouldn't have believed it if I didn't see it myself, but the numbers don't lie. How could playing an extra minute more per game have a negative impact? Perhaps it's just a short-term coincidence; but looking at two seasons worth of data that's so conclusive makes me believe Robertson might be best in short bursts and thus can continue to succeed if used sparingly, breaking the normal model for scoring success, i.e., the more ice time the better.

What happens if his ice time rises though? As we saw with Tkachuk, stars can adapt. But Dallas seems to be keenly aware of the secret to Robertson's success, and despite him now being a legit star they continue to not play him into the ground. That having been said, it is not clear if he can improve under these circumstances, and that's where the past data does come into play. In other words, I'm not worried about him losing points like others did who had as few minutes as him overall and on the PP. But I think it will act as a points ceiling, as his points per minute was already 4.2 this season; and even amidst all the high scorers for 2022-23, no one not named Connor McDavid was above 4.4.

It's a similar story for SOG per 60 minutes, as Robertson ranked eighth in the entire NHL at 12.2. Yes, the highest was David Pastrnak at 15.2, giving more theoretical room for JRob to improve. But Robertson's SOG rate actually dropped as the season wore on, so he might not have it in him to shoot the puck much more than he already is. Interestingly though, his best two quarters in scoring rate over the past two seasons occurred in those where his SOG per game ranked highest, yet also third lowest. Even at his best he was barely above the four per game rate. Yes, I realize Pasta hadn't been above that rate until these past two seasons, is older than JRob, and likewise doesn't see a ton of ice time for someone of his level of talent. Perhaps JRob can make slight improvements in this area.

What about other metrics? Robertson's SH% was just under his average, so no signs of danger there. His IPPs were 76.2% overall and 77.4% on the PP, which are superb. But whereas his overall IPPs had been 69.3% and 72.6% previously, he'd never been above even the 60% mark on the PP. For him to have gotten that much better is a bit suspect. Still, his secondary assist rate was a mere 38.1%, after being 50% last season, meaning that JRob would have been a point per game player if we only counted his goals and primary assists! That is an impressive accomplishment, which in my mind more than offsets some of the extra PPPts he might've lucked into this season.

Robertson's ascent should seem surprising if one focuses on his ice time. But the proof is in the pudding in that Robertson has somehow enjoyed more success when his ice time has been throttled. I'd feel better if there was another season of top performance to back things up; but this is likely enough data, when coupled with his SOG rates, SH%, secondary assist rate, and IPP, to comfortably say that Robertson should be able to continue to score at the rate he did this season even if everything stays exactly the same. I also think that he's essentially at his ceiling until/unless he finds a way to score with more ice time as Tkachuk did this season. For now, Robertson's 2022-23 was JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 5.75, meaning we ought to expect 105-110 points again next season if things stay the same.

Alex Tuch (74 games, 36G, 43A, 218 SOG, 20 PPPts, 19:09 TOI, 3:21 PP, 61.1% PP%)

Drafted 18th overall by – I'd forgotten – the Wild, Tuch logged a mere six NHL games for Minny before being traded to the Knights as part of a deal to ensure Vegas would select Eric Haula in the expansion draft. Despite him not scoring at a point per every other game rate in his first season for the Knights, they inked Tuch to a six-year contract which took effect starting in 2019-20. He made them look smart in scoring at a 58-point rate in 2018-19; however, from there his scoring fell, leading to Tuch being moved to Buffalo in the Jack Eichel trade. With the Sabres he had a strong 2021-22, scoring at a 62-point-pace, but this season saw his total jump above the point per game mark. Tuch put up the career season even though he hasn't yet reached the 400-game breakout threshold that would apply to a player his size. Can Tuch improve? Or might he be in danger of seeing his totals drop whether due to younger Sabre forwards passing him on the depth chart, or his Band-Aid Boy status eroding his skill? Most likely the latter, as although I don't see the bottom falling out, he does seem to have put up numbers in 2022-23 that he's unlikely to reach again.

The normal thinking is that Tuch and Tage Thompson are joined at the hip; however, they only played together for about 60% of Tuch's ES shifts, during which Tuch generated 62% of his even strength points. Looking at With-or-Without-You data, they were both as productive together as apart. Those who think Tuch's success is a by-product of having been tethered to Thompson, that's not the case.

Still, the issue with Tuch, despite his numbers looking very strong, is he had one standout quarter, namely Q2 when he had 23 points in 19 games on 67 SOG while skating for 19:46 per contest, 3:43 of which was man advantage time. For the rest of 2022-23 he had 56 points in 55 games, with quarters of 17 points in 16 games, 17 in 17, and 22 in 22. It's good that he wasn't very up and down in terms of production; but the fact he did his best when receiving ice times not in line with his season-long averages is worrisome, and makes it more likely he's an 80-point player – if even that – versus a ~90 point player.

Where there also is concern is his multipoint games. He had seven games with three points and two with four. That's 29 points in just nine games, such that he had 50 in his other 65. There are two ways to look at that data, with the first being it shows Tuch is an explosive scorer who, once he passes his breakout threshold, will find consistency and do even better. The other equally plausible explanation is he's too streaky to be a point per game player. Then which is it? In those games he had a balanced ratio of goals to assists, so it's not like he got super lucky in terms of SOG. But they did tend to come during streaks – that is, when he runs hot he runs really hot. Also, although he had some multipoint games where his ice time was lower than his season-long average, for the most part they came when he was well above his normal rate. With the Sabres being as stacked as they are now on offense, it's not clear he will be able to get much more ice time going forward versus this season. In all, this metric pushes me a bit more toward concern than encouragement.

Where there is definitely reason for worry though is the PP, as although Tuch was able to maintain a spot on PP1 for virtually the entire season, his IPP on the PP was under 50%, as it was in 2021-22 and 2020-21 as well. To put that in better perspective, of the roughly 50 forwards who logged more PP minutes in 2022-23, just four (Nick Suzuki, Patrice Bergeron, Anders Lee, and Brock Nelson) had fewer PPPts than Tuch. It gets worse when looking at IPP, as just Bergeron and Zach Hyman had lower PP IPPs.

What does that data tell us? Bergeron is in the twilight of his career and the Isles forwards, as well as Suzuki, were stuck on bad PPs, while Hyman was on the ice with three forwards who each had 50+ PPPts. In short, Tuch was lousy on the PP. It would be one thing if the Sabres didn't have other options; however, they do. It's not like Tuch plays the type of game that would command that he be on PP1 as a net front presence, as despite his size he is not a prototypical physical player, having never posted a hit per game with Buffalo. Although I'd say a PP1 spot is his to lose, there's only so much longer he can keep it if he fails to be able to produce and there are as many other viable options as do exist in Buffalo.

It's not all bad news when it comes to metrics though, as Tuch's secondary assist rate was a very low 32.6%. Still then – why wasn't his IPP higher? One explanation likely lies in Tuch's SH%, which, at 16.0%, is not objectively unsustainable; but it was 10.3% coming into this season, meaning it was over 50% higher in 2022-23 than his career rate. Had he shot only 10.3% in 2022-23 instead and none of his lost goals were repackaged as assists, that would have subtracted 14 points from his total, leaving his scoring rate at 72, which would've been a nice bump from 2021-22, but not the leap he made.

Let's also not overlook that Tuch is a certified Band-Aid Boy. Normally the concern with respect to injuries is they will have a lingering and/or cumulative effect. Whether that occurs with respect to Tuch remains to be seen. In his case though, the issue is more the reality that many Sabre players are drooling at the chance to be elevated to his top line spot, such that if he was to miss extended time it's not clear he'd be put back on that top line. And let's not forget that Thompson was able to play just as well without Tuch as with him. Yes, the reverse was also true; however, not playing with Thompson would mean more than that, namely less ice time, and as we saw above he played his best when he played the most.

I know I've talked a lot about the looming threats posed by Sabre youngsters; but there's also the fact that the Sabres, as they improve, will be likely to go after free agents to try and set their team up to take the next step into the playoffs and then being competitive. With their center spot being pretty well set in stone with Thompson and Dylan Cozens, plus, if needed, Casey Mittelstadt, and them having Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power on defense and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi ready to take over netminder duties, that leaves the winger spot as one where they could seek improvements. Unlike with Tuch, Thompson was indeed a much better player skating with Jeff Skinner than without, so that seems to leave Tuch as the most vulnerable of those on the top line of losing his "spot."

Tuch is a solid player; but his 2022-23 production was boosted by his best quarter having come when he received ice times well above his averages and was also propped up by an unsustainably high SH%, which, when juxtaposed with his PP IPP, suggest that he benefitted by enough unsustainably good luck to not be offset by his low Secondary Assist rate. Of all the Sabres wingers, his "spot" is most vulnerable, whether on the PP due to his inability to perform well there, or youngsters trying to rise to new levels and/or free agents Buffalo is likely to court and, if they continue to play as well as they did in 2022-23, actually land. Although I'm not here to say that the bottom is going to fall out from what Tuch did this season, I would not be surprised to see him fail to reach point per game output again, as on the whole he appears to be more of a 70- to 75-point player. Accordingly, his 2022-23 was TOO HOT and he gets a rating of 8.75. Yes, he's right at his breakout threshold; however, I might use that as an excuse to try and help you sell high on Tuch in keepers, plus you can try to say that his injury issues are behind him, when in truth that's at best unclear.

Jared McCann (79 games, 40G, 30A, 210 SOG, 16 PPPts, 16:20 TOI, 2:40 PP, 52.8% PP%)

Selected just six players after Tuch in that same 2014 draft, one might struggle to remember what team chose McCann as well, since he played merely one season for the Canucks and fared pretty darn lousy, with 18 points in 69 games. That was enough for Vancouver to cut the cord, sending McCann to Florida, where he got better bit by bit but failed to post a point per every other game, landing him on the Pens by the end of 2018-19. There he saw his scoring rate rise with each season, all the way to 32 points in 43 games in 2021-22. Right after that though, McCann was selected in an expansion draft, giving him yet another thing in common with Tuch, albeit in his case by the Kraken. In his McCann's first season for Seattle, he did about as well as one could for the then fledgling team; however, when things aligned for them in 2022-23, it was McCann leading the way in scoring. Was this a one-year fluke, or is there a chance McCann is the real deal? Not only wasn't 2022-23 an aberration, but my sense is even better production likely lies ahead for McCann.

First things first – yes, McCann shot 19.0% for the season. Is that high, when looked at in a vacuum? Yes; however, nearly a third of the 40+ goal scorers for 2022-23 had a SH% of 18.1%+. Also, McCann took the second fewest SOG of any 40+ goal scorer, with those who had higher shooting percentages than his having averaged 20 more SOG, which is 10% more than McCann. Also, his SOG wasn't boosted by the PP, where he shot only 13.0%.

It is true that McCann's SOG from 31+ feet nearly equaled his total from 0-30. Beyond that, in one quarter he had 14 goals on only 40 shots. I can understand how those could paint a not so encouraging picture in terms of sustainability; however; seeing that when it came to SH% he not only had company but also some shot even better despite more SOG legitimizes his feat, as does that fact he'd been at 13.6% and 15.1% his prior two seasons, versus someone who'd only previously been in the single digits or lower double digits.

Getting past that, there's a lot to like, as McCann saw his per game TOI average rise with each passing quarter. And wouldn't you know it – so too did his scoring rate, culminating in a Q4 which saw him take the ice for 18:16 per game – or nearly a full 2:00 more than his season-long average – of which 3:05 was on the PP, responding with 22 points in 20 games, and that was despite shooting "only" 12.8% that quarter, which, as indicated above, is lower than his rates in either of his prior two seasons. Yes, the Kraken seem to be dedicated to not playing its top forwards into the ground; however, the McCann we were seeing in Q4 was a far cry – in a positive way – versus what we saw in Q1, when he posted 13 points in 18 games while taking the ice for a mere 15:01 per contest.

McCann also is locked into the top line, as the Kraken did not diverge from playing him with star in the making Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle, who, much like David Perron when he went to Vegas, has been rejuvenated. McCann is holding his own, with an IPP of 69.3%, which, while down from 80.3% last season, is arguably just as good inasmuch as last season he played with Jaden Schwartz, Yanni Gourde, Eberle, and Karson Kuhlman.

What we also can see from his Q4 numbers is McCann can take more shots, with an average of 3.9 per game. Even if his SH% did fall to "only" 12.8% as it did, the net result would be the same. As such, if McCann is able to up his SOG rate at a cost of several SH% percentage points, there is no need to fear his goal scoring taking a hit.

Turning to other metrics, his secondary assist rate was a mere 36.7%, signifying, especially when coupled with his lower IPP versus last season, he should be able to add more points in the normal course. His OZ% was 55.6%, which is perfectly fine too. Also, his IPP on the PP, which was 71.4% two seasons ago and 85.0% last season, was only 61.5% for 2022-23. I know what you're thinking – doesn't that put him at risk of losing his PP1 gig? Probably not, as the others on PP1 had similar IPPs, basically signifying that they were all roughly equal participants when it came to the man advantage. Also, if somehow McCann was pushed to the second unit, the Kraken don't have a first unit that's leaned upon, at least not yet. So if things stay the same, McCann should do no worse on the PP, and perhaps better. If he gets pushed to the second unit he should still take the ice for nearly the same percentage of man advantage time. Although I'm not saying we should expect a spike in PP production for McCann, he's in about as close to a no-lose situation as can be envisioned.

It may have taken a while, but McCann seems to be justifying Vancouver having taken him in the first round nearly a decade ago. He has clicked on a Seattle top line that appears to be as close to set in stone as can be, and his ice time kept rising as the season went on, with him responding to the tune of better production and a net wash in terms of a lower SH% but more SOG. Even if Seattle plays McCann only about 18:00+ per night, with 3:00+ coming on the PP, I think the situation is ripe for him to be an 80-85 point player. As such, for 2022-23 he was TOO COLD, and gets a rating of 2.75.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag still has plenty of room for questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.