Eastern Edge: Underrated Fantasy Performances From Non-Playoff Teams
Brennan Des
2023-05-09
In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss strong individual performances from players on non-playoff teams.
Buffalo Sabres – Casey Mittelstadt
During an exciting season in which Buffalo narrowly missed the playoffs, we saw many strong individual performances from the Sabres. The top trio of Alex Tuch, Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner thrived, with each player scoring above a point-per-game pace. Defenseman Rasmus Dahlin almost flirted with the point-per-game mark, while 22-year-old Dylan Cozens had a breakout campaign with nearly 70 points. Amidst so many impressive showings, Casey Mittelstadt's 60-point pace is likely to fly under the radar. Since being drafted eighth overall in 2017, Mittelstadt has been hindered by injuries. Extended absences understandably interfered with his development, so it makes sense that his breakout took a little longer than some may have expected. Although he probably won't see top-line minutes any time soon, a prominent role in Buffalo's middle-six should be sufficient for Mittelstadt to match, and perhaps improve on, this year's production. A role deeper in the lineup should result in favourable matchups for Mittelstadt. In addition, he won't suffer from an inept supporting cast as Buffalo has plenty of up-and-coming young talent.
Columbus Blue Jackets – Patrik Laine
Laine showed a lot of potential when he scored at a 40-goal pace in each of his first two seasons. His fantasy stock has fallen since then due to a couple of underwhelming years, as well as a number of injuries. Although he's scored around a point-per-game pace in each of his past two campaigns, his offensive output is overshadowed by the fact that he missed over 25 games in each of those seasons. I think his injury history, combined with poor public perception of the Blue Jackets, could result in Laine falling further than he should during fantasy drafts next year.
Detroit Red Wings – Dylan Larkin
Larkin was arguably the only Red Wing that had a strong showing this year. He led his team in scoring with 79 points in 80 games. Second-place David Perron had just 56 in 82 outings. Although Moritz Seider had a strong second half, his slow start limited his overall production. After posting a disappointing 43-point pace in 2020-2021, Larkin has now scored around a point-per-game in back-to-back seasons. Keep an eye on who plays beside him next season.
Montreal Canadiens – Kirby Dach
Like other players on this list, Dach's strong showing in 2022-2023 may fly under the radar because he missed so many games due to injury. He posted a career-high 38 points in 58 appearances this season, which translates to 54 points over 82 games. Sixteen of his points were tallied with the man advantage as he enjoyed a 64% share of Montreal's total power-play time. Although he saw some stretches of power-play action in Chicago, this marked his first real consistent opportunity. Dach showed high-end offensive ability this year and looked comfortable on the top line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield before Caufield got injured. Expect those three to continue seeing time together next year.
Ottawa Senators – Tim Stützle
Stützle's breakout 90-point season has been well-documented, but some are probably wary of regression heading into next year. For starters, the 90-point mark represents a significant jump from the 58 points Stützle tallied the year prior. Such a big jump can sometimes be interpreted as an outlier, but considering Stützle is just 21 years old and still developing, big increases in point totals shouldn't be a cause for concern. Similarly, I don't think it's a big deal that Stützle's shooting percentage jumped from 12.5% in year two to 17.1% in year three. For veterans, we usually identify unsustainable shooting percentages by comparing a single-season percentage to an average based on preceding years. It's hard to do the same thing with younger developing players because they might have been different players in earlier seasons. I don't think it's far-fetched to say that Stützle could be a career 15-17% shooter. The best players in the league have the ability to score on ~17% of their shots consistently, and I think Stützle has the talent to be one of the best players in the league.
Philadelphia Flyers – Owen Tippett
Since being drafted 10th overall in 2017, Tippett hadn't really seen a significant role for a sustained period of time. That changed this year. After averaging 13 and a half minutes the previous season, Tippett's ice time jumped to 17 and a half minutes during the 2022-2023 campaign. His production improved accordingly, as he went from a 27-point pace to a 52-point pace. Tippett showed an increased willingness to shoot this past season, averaging three shots per game after posting two per game in prior years. On a Flyers team that lacks talent, Tippett is a player with upside who should get plenty of opportunity to produce next year.
Pittsburgh Penguins – Rickard Rakell
Rakell's first full year in Pittsburgh was a success as he reached the 60-point mark for the first time in five seasons. He benefitted from a prominent role on the power-play as 21 of his 60 points came with the man advantage. Although he could enjoy the same role again next year, I'd be wary of him losing his spot on the top unit. Rakell isn't exactly the straw that stirs the drink on a power play that features stars like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel and Kris Letang.
Washington Capitals – Dylan Strome
The 26-year-old forward managed a career-high 65 points this past season. He benefitted from a prominent role on the power play and plenty of even-strength deployment beside Alex Ovechkin. There was some concern that Strome's production would suffer once Nicklas Backstrom returned to the lineup following offseason hip surgery. Fortunately, Strome continued seeing time beside Ovechkin even after Backstrom returned. Surprisingly, Strome posted 0.87 points per game with Backstrom in the lineup and 0.74 points per game without him.