Ramblings: Clutch Tkachuk x2, Goalie Bob, Bounce Back DeBrincat? (May 21)

Ian Gooding

2023-05-21

Hockey games – especially playoff games – are notorious for not playing out the way we think they will. After the marathon four overtime (nearly five overtime) game, the thinking was that the goalies would be tired and that you'd need to load up on scoring for Game 2 daily fantasy and game props. Not so much, unless 2-1 is high scoring to you.

Panthers 2, Hurricanes 1 (Panthers lead series 2-0)

If you had to get up early in the morning, at least this overtime was much shorter than the one in Game 1.

Yep, that's Matthew Tkachuk in overtime again. He's scored the overtime sudden-death game winners in both games of this series. His three overtime goals in the playoffs have tied an all-time record. It's not just the scoring (18 points in 14 games) that he's brought to Florida. It's also the style of game that he has, which is perfect for the playoffs when the play is amped up a notch while getting greasier and sweatier. He's a Tkachuk – it's in his DNA. And yeah, potential Conn Smythe winner if the Panthers finish the job and get to the final.

Remember when this trade broke and what the replies were to it? In less than a year, the sizzling takes have turned freezing cold.

With the Game 2 overtime win, Florida has now won eight consecutive road games in the playoffs, with their only playoff road loss coming in their first game of the playoffs in Boston. They’ve also won six consecutive overtime games. They've been outshot in both games (65-60 in Game 1 and 38-26 in Game 2), but they've managed to push both games to overtime where anything can happen. They have that "it" factor right now where they're not necessarily outplaying their opponents (I'll even give you that, Toronto), but they get what they need when they need it. Every season, at least one team far surpasses expectations. That team this season is clearly the Panthers. Honorable mention: Seattle.

After Game 1, Sergei Bobrovsky was back out there for Game 2. Paul Maurice made the right call in giving the nod to him again, as he stopped 37 of 38 shots to pick up his ninth win in his last 10 games and eighth consecutive quality start. As well, Bobrovsky has allowed no more than two goals in each of his last seven games. Remember when a hot goalie was everything in the playoffs? Maybe it still is. More on Goalie Bob and his overall fantasy value in a bit.

Rod Brind'Amour decided to give Frederik Andersen a rest, starting Antti Raanta in Game 2. RBA could feel fairly confident in Raanta, as he had started the first five games of the playoffs for Carolina against the Islanders, winning three of them. The Canes are a bit unconventional when it comes to handling goalies, as you may remember they decided to move on from Alex Nedeljkovic right after he was named a Calder Trophy finalist. With both Raanta and Andersen UFAs this offseason, I wouldn't be surprised if the Hurricanes goalies next season are Pyotr Kochetkov and another free agent not currently in the organization. You won't catch them spending $10 million per season on a goalie, even if they are knocked out by a team that does.

Aleksander Barkov scored the game-tying goal in the second period. He has two goals in the series, which is as many as he had scored in 12 games over the first two series. The Panthers captain had not been as noticeable as Tkachuk or Brandon Montour in the first two series, but he has emerged as a real force in this series.

I saw an interesting question on Twitter recently. It asked whether Bobrovsky will be drafted too high next season because of the Panthers' playoff run. I think that's exactly what will happen, given the recency effect.

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We have to be careful not to overvalue a player based on a playoff run, since we are making a judgement based on a two-month (or less) stretch. Bobrovsky is absolutely killing it during these playoffs, but is that what we should expect from him going forward? For reference, his ADP on Yahoo was 60, which had a lot to do with the win total (39) amassed from Florida's Presidents' Trophy win in 2021-22.

Bobrovsky has played in at least 50 games for six of the past seven seasons, with the COVID-shortened season the exception. That means he should supply his share of wins. However, he's posted a negative GSAA (goals saved above average) for three of the past four seasons in Florida. The number has been relatively close to zero the last two times, so Bob can be best qualified as being league-average, 2023 playoffs aside. Goalies can all go through runs where they seem unbeatable, but we'd need to see more of this from Bobrovsky before he should be considered elite.

I don't know if Spencer Knight will return next season, but if he does, he could cut into the number of starts for Bobrovsky. If you have Bob in a keeper, now (or sometime this offseason, if trades are shut down) might be a good time to try to sell high. The playoff run will mean that he won't sneak up on anyone next season, which is the opposite of what you want when you're trying to unearth hidden gems in the goaltending pile.

Alex DeBrincat has recently appeared as a top Frozen Tools search, which seems interesting. At age 25, DeBrincat seems to be at a bit of a crossroads. Although he had a decent first season in Ottawa, his production had declined somewhat. In addition, he's now an arbitration-eligible RFA whose qualifying offer is set to $9 million. The Senators have a decision on their hands with the 25-year-old forward in terms of signing him to that one-year QO, signing him to a multi-year contract, or simply moving on from him.

One important factor with DeBrincat is his declining shooting percentage over the past two seasons. Notably, his 5-on-5 shooting percentage has dropped from 11.7% two seasons ago to 9.1% last season to just 6.7% this season. His overall shooting percentage has declined from 20.6% to 15.2% to 10.3% over the same span. The good news is that he's kept his shot rate around the same (3.0-3.3 SOG/GP) during that time, which suggests a possible rebound.

An added bonus with DeBrincat in multicat is that he shoots quite a bit. Only Brady Tkachuk had more shots on goal than DeBrincat (263 SOG) among Senators this season, while DeBrincat was in the top 25 in that category overall. He's also decent in bangers leagues, as he has at least 100 hits over the past two seasons. One area of improvement will be plus-minus, something that stood out for both DeBrincat (-30) and frequent linemate Drake Batherson (-34) among Senators in a negative way.

Before penciling in DeBrincat for an increase in points from last season, wait it out to determine whether he stays in Ottawa or is moved elsewhere. He should be okay in most situations, though.  

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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