DFS Saturday: Top of the Hill

Stephen Dotzel

2023-05-27

Something that caught my attention the other day was that for a few moments, both the Eastern Conference and Western Conference series in each of the NHL and NBA playoffs were 3-0. I have to think that is something that has never happened before. On the NHL side, the Panthers were able to bring the brooms out in their series with another Matthew Tkachuk game winning goal. That was his third one of the series after scoring the winning goal in overtime in Games 1 and 2. In the West, Vegas was not able to get the series-clinching overtime goal that they needed, and instead Joe Pavelski kept the Stars slim chances alive. That Pavelski goal extended the series to a Game 5 on Saturday, which leads us to this article.

As has been the case for the past few weeks, we have a one-game contest available to play for those of us that still want to keep the fantasy season going. As always, it's important to check the contest rules on the specific fantasy site you play on, as they vary slightly. I will be focusing on DraftKings and if you want a quick rundown of how one game contest scoring works there and some strategy when building lineups, please read one of my previous articles here.

Captain Considerations

As I often talk about with one game contests, you want to build your lineup around a specific outcome on how you think the game will unfold. For me in this one I am going to build as if Vegas ends this series on their way to a comfortable 3-1 or 4-1 type victory. With that being the case, I am going to start my lineup with Adin Hill ($15,000). Unless a skater scores multiple goals, it is unlikely one will be able to outscore a goalie that picks up a win, only allows one goal, and likely has 25 or more saves. Also, it's much safer to take the goalie than try and guess which of the 18 Golden Knights on the ice is going to have the best game.

Flex Considerations

With my prediction of Vegas outscoring Dallas, coupled with my use of the Vegas goalie as my captain, it would make sense most of my flex players are going to be Golden Knights. It wouldn't be very smart to roster multiple Stars players when every time they score my captain's fantasy point total goes down. Taking that into consideration, I'm looking for four Vegas skaters to roster here. The top line of Jack Eichel ($9,800), Jonathan Marchessault ($8,800), and Ivan Barbashev ($5,400) has been the most productive this series with four goals and seven assists between the trio. William Karlsson ($4,800) has scored three goals of his own in these four games and comes in as one of the cheapest forwards on the slate. I will gladly add him on as the last Golden Knight player on my roster.

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With all my Vegas players locked in, there is one spot remaining in the lineup to fill and it must be a Star. With $6,200 in salary remaining that leaves us options such as Esa Lindell ($4,600) and Ryan Suter ($4,000). Lindell has cracked double-digit fantasy points in each of the last two games while seeing north of 20 minutes of ice team in each. Suter has seen even more ice time in this series and despite being quiet in the last two games, he did have 12.5 and 12.8 DraftKings points in the first two games in Vegas. Either defenseman is a solid pick to round out the lineup.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @SteveDotzel so you can follow my "DFS-NHL" list which is comprised of dozens of team accounts and beat writers providing important updates throughout the day. Also, give a look to our tools at DFS Central to see who our formulas are liking for this slate. Best of luck with your lineups!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 21 - 19:04 WSH vs MTL
Apr 21 - 19:04 WPG vs STL
Apr 21 - 21:04 DAL vs COL
Apr 21 - 22:04 L.A vs EDM

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
VASILY PONOMAREV PIT
TIM STUTZLE OTT
ZEEV BUIUM MIN
SETH JARVIS CAR
MARK STONE VGK

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
CALVIN PICKARD EDM
ANTHONY STOLARZ TOR
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
ADIN HILL VGK
LINUS ULLMARK OTT

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency BOS Players
20.2 DAVID PASTRNAK ELIAS LINDHOLM MORGAN GEEKIE
14.6 PAVEL ZACHA FABIAN LYSELL MARAT KHUSNUTDINOV
13.4 CASEY MITTELSTADT VINNI LETTIERI COLE KOEPKE

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