Today is the release day for the 2023 Dobber Hockey Prospects Report! Not only does it give a thorough review, update, and projection for teams and a dozen (or more) of their current prospects, but digs into the 2023 draft class as well. Help support the site by getting all you need to know about hockey prospects all in one place!

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There has been much speculation since Kyle Dubas’s firing as GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs, and the team finally announced who his replacement would be on Wednesday:

Brad Treliving est officiellement le nouveau DG des @MapleLeafs @TVASports

— Renaud Lavoie (@renlavoietva) May 31, 2023

Treliving was most recently the GM for Calgary, and his handling of the Tkachuk/Florida deal is something a lot of people talk about. I would like to point out his draft history in his first few seasons as he took over as GM in 2014. I will cut it off at 2017; he had a bad draft year in 2018 and many guys drafted in 2019 or later are current AHL mainstays that should be with the club eventually (Dustin Wolf, Jakob Pelletier, Matthew Coronato etc.).  

• Sam Bennett (2014, 4^th overall, maybe not great, but Michael Dal Colle, Jake Virtanen, and Haydn Fleury were the next three off the board that year, so, maybe not so bad)
• Rasmus Andersson (2015, 53^rd)
• Oliver Kylington (2015, 60^th)
• Andrew Mangiapane (2015, 166^th)
• Matthew Tkachuk (2016, 6^th)
• Dillon Dubé (2016, 56^th)
• Adam Fox (2016, 66^th)
• Matthew Phillips (2016, 166^th)
• Juuso Välimäki (2017, 16^th)
• Adam Ruzicka (2017, 109^th)

Those are 10 picks over three seasons where eight of them are now NHL regulars, six of them are top-half-of-the-roster players, and two of them are superstars. Oh, and only two picks inside the top-50 in that span. One thing I did notice about Toronto's playoff run is that outside the Big Four, the only playoff forward they had that they drafted was Matthew Knies, and he came straight from college. If Treliving's first few years of drafting in Toronto can mirror what he did in Calgary, it would be a monumental win for the Leafs.

The immediate concern is what to do about that Big Four with Auston Matthews and William Nylander both unrestricted free agents a year from now, and both will command monster salaries. He's walking into a very difficult job that won't relent, but good drafting over the next few years will go a long way to rebuilding a sustained contender.

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The Carolina Hurricanes signed one of their draft picks from 2021 in forward Justin Robidas:

The #Canes have signed Justin Robidas to a three-year, entry-level contract.

The high-scoring forward has played an important role in leading the Québec Remparts to a QMJHL Championship and an appearance at the Memorial Cup.https://t.co/osvjhBscJ5

— Walt Ruff (@WaltRuff) May 31, 2023

Robidas had 25 goals and 78 points across 63 games in the QMJHL this season and was a big producer for the Québec Remparts in the playoffs/Memorial Cup. He is likely headed to the AHL next year but given Carolina's scoring problems, he (along with others) is not a player to count out for NHL games in 2023-24.

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In my Ramblings on Tuesday, I finished my series of reviewing the fantasy seasons of each non-playoff team. That Ramblings covered just the Anaheim Ducks but also contains all the links for each team at the bottom of the article. Thanks to everyone that read along through that series and sent along nice notes (and not-as-nice notes, as even those are helpful at times).

It is nearly time to turn the page. We have both the Entry Draft and Free Agent Frenzy in the next month, and that is a huge time of year for the hockey world at large. Before we do that, I want to aim my gaze towards the playoff teams that have been eliminated thus far. More specifically, just some thoughts on some playoff (under)performers and what it could mean for the next fantasy season, and beyond. No conclusions will be drawn here because of the sample, but we are looking for certain signs of life (or not).

As usual, data from either our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated.

Wyatt Johnston

Things didn't go the way the Stars or Johnston had hoped for in the Western Conference Final. A suspension to Jamie Benn and injury to Evgenii Dadonov led to inconsistent line mates for Johnston, and the Stars were outscored 5-0 when he was on the ice at 5-on-5 in the series as a result. The rookie ended the series without registering a point, too, though he did manage 21 shots in 98:25 of TOI.

The poor finish shouldn't overshadow what was a good playoffs for Johnston. Until the Vegas series, his line outscored the opposition 6-4 at 5-on-5, out-chanced them 74-58, and Johnston had four goals in 13 games. Not only that, but in those first two rounds, no Dallas forward played more at 5-on-5 than Johnston. Perhaps the Vegas series was a letdown, but he's still a rookie who started the postseason as a teenager and Corey Sznajder's tracking data has Johnston leading the team in scoring chances (other sites will have Hintz in first). I stand pretty firm in my position that there's a reasonable chance Johnston ends up the best rookie from this year's class, and he's very likely among the top-end guys like Owen Power and Matty Beniers.

Tyler Bertuzzi

This may be a sore spot for Boston fans, but I really thought Bertuzzi was among their best forwards in their early playoff departure. When you're on a team with Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak, and Taylor Hall, that is saying something.

When I looked at the data, Marchand and Pastrnak were probably better than Bertuzzi (which is why relying on what you remember from hockey games a month ago is a bad idea). What I also noticed was the Bertuzzi's numbers with David Krejci, including the regular season, were a lot different than playing with anyone else at 5-on-5:

• Boston with Bertuzzi+Krejci (86.75 mins): outscored by opposition 6-3, 42% expected goal share
• Boston with Bertuzzi, without Krejci (292.58 mins): outscored opposition 18-12, 59% xG share

A lot of Bertuzzi's non-Krejci minutes included David Pastrnak, and that helps, but the former Detroit forward also played extremely well with Charlie Coyle. He seems to be a guy that needs another very talented winger to get the most out of him – it's not uncommon – but I still think there's more fantasy upside than what he showed with the Red Wings, and we saw that with Bertuzzi putting up 10 points in seven playoff games. He wound up finishing third on the team in scoring chance contributions per minute, trailing only Marchand and Pastrnak.  

Tye Kartye

The injury to Jared McCann forced Seattle to shuffle their lines a bit and it pushed rookie Tye Kartye to the top scoring line with Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle. They were easily the Kraken's best line through their two rounds, and after his call-up, Kartye tied for the Seattle lead in 5-on-5 goals with three (Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand also had three). In the Dallas series alone, their line out-shot the Stars 35-21 and outscored them 7-2.

Kartye wasn't just a passenger, either. After he was called up in the Colorado series, he put up the fourth-highest shot attempt rate among their forwards. In a limited sample of the game tracking referenced earlier, Kartye's scoring chance contributions at 5-on-5 slightly exceeded Eberle's and was higher than both Alex Wennberg and Eeli Tolvanen:

It wasn't an elite rate, but it was good, and especially for a rookie getting his first taste of NHL action. This is probably a good time to remind everyone that Kartye led the AHL in rookie points and was second in goals. Training camp should be interesting.

Noah Dobson

It is tough to stand out in a series where your team loses in six games while averaging 2.5 goals per game, but one thing I did remember was basically nothing happening for the Islanders offensively unless Dobson was on the ice. When I checked the stats, it was an instance I remembered somewhat correctly: the Islanders out-chanced the Hurricanes 50-42 with Dobson on the ice at 5-on-5 but were out-chanced by Carolina 102-77 with him off the ice. New York scored 11 goals in total at 5-on-5, and Dobson was on the ice for over half of them (6).

This isn't anything new, either. Consider that by the same tracking data we've referenced, Dobson led the Islanders blue liners during the regular season in scoring chance assists (helpers on teammate scoring chances) at 5-on-5. He didn't just lead them, though, he was light years ahead: Dobson's rate of 3.83 chance assists/60 minutes was roughly 150% higher (!) than the next-closest Islanders teammate (The Other Sebastian Aho at 1.54/60 minutes). League-wide, Dobson's assist rate compared favourably to Adam Fox (3.98/60), Erik Karlsson (3.81/60), and Cale Makar (3.80/60):

In a better fantasy environment, Dobson could be a 70-point defenceman. I have my doubts it'll happen in the near-term with the Islanders, though.

Matt Roy

Maybe not the name most people will think of when discussing Los Angeles, but Roy (along with defence partner Vladislav Gavrikov) was most impressive in the postseason. In their first-round series, the Kings were outscored by the Oilers 15-11 at 5-on-5. With Roy on the ice, though, Los Angeles outscored Edmonton 6-4. With him and Gavrikov on the ice, they out-chanced Edmonton 62-56, whereas the team lost the scoring chance battle 129-95 with them off the ice.

Per the regular season tracking data, Roy was the only regular Kings defenceman to be above the league average by scoring chance assist rate at 5-on-5. He was also second among their defencemen in defensive zone retrievals leading to zone exits per minute, trailing only Drew Doughty. It is also fair to wonder how much having to constantly cover for Sean Durzi hurt some of Roy's regular season numbers, because he played with Durzi (865 minutes) far more than any other defenceman (Gavrikov, 217 minutes). In those minutes, Roy's on-ice results were miles better with literally anyone else besides Durzi:

At this point, unless Brandt Clarke explodes on the scene in 2023-24, Roy might be Los Angeles's best overall defenceman. He won't get power-play minutes, though, with Doughty, Durzi, and Clarke around. And if they don't start playing him more like their best overall defenceman and less like a number-4, both the team and fantasy owners will be much worse off.

Evan Bouchard and Seth Jarvis

I just want to briefly mention two young stars that really stood out.

Evan Bouchard's offensive explosion came almost immediately after the Tyson Barrie trade. Bouchard saw a PPTOI jump, and he posted 19 points over his final 20 regular season games as a result.

It won't shock people that Bouchard's production jumped when he got a feature role with the Edmonton power play. What might shock people is how much he helped their lineup rather than the other way around:

• Over the team's final 20 regular season games, Edmonton generated 2.64 expected goals and 3.0 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 when Connor McDavid was on the ice without Bouchard. Those numbers jumped to 3.64/4.44 when McDavid had Bouchard on his blue line.
• Over the team's final 20 regular season games, Edmonton generated 3.59 expected goals and 4.37 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 when Leon Draisaitl was on the ice without McDavid. Those are elite offensive numbers as it is, but when he had Bouchard with him, the expected goals jumped 16% and actual goals jumped 33%. He went from elite without Bouchard to an absolute supernova with him.

That is the regular season. As for the postseason, the goals/expected goals numbers aren't drastic like that, and Bouchard struggled offensively without McDavid. All the same, per the tracking data, the only defencemen to have a higher overall impact on things line zone entries/exits and scoring chance creation than Bouchard are Miro Heiskanen and Brent Burns, both of whom made it a round further (also called micro-stat game score). It will be fascinating to see Bouchard's ADP in September because we're finally seeing the upside he's teased for a few seasons.

As for Jarvis, we'll start with the tracking data. Here is the list of forwards with a higher micro-stat game score than Jarvis in the postseason (at time of writing): McDavid, Draisaitl, Hintz, MacKinnon, Aho, Robertson, and Tkachuk. That is it. Now, Jarvis played most of his time with Aho, so that they figured in often on each other's scoring chances makes sense. All the same, his scoring chance contribution rate (SCC/60) trailed only Aho among Carolina's forwards, and that was certainly not the case in the regular season. Across the playoffs, Jarvis's SCC/60 rate of 8.91 rates very closely with stars like Carter Verhaeghe (9.11), Mark Stone (8.98), and Jack Eichel (8.82). Jarvis legitimately stepped up his game and that's a great sign for him, the Hurricanes, and dynasty owners.