NHL Picks/Props: Montour, Martinez, and Picking a Game 1 Winner
Brad Hayward
2023-06-03
We've survived four nights without hockey this week, and hopefully there's popcorn and your beverage of choice ready for the 8:00 ET start of the Stanley Cup Final. The story is unique – the top seed in the West, who very few thought would make it through, against the eighth seed in the East, who "nobody" predicted,** except maybe the players themselves. A team reliant upon a goaltender (Adin Hill) making just over $2 million, who may be looking for a job in four weeks, against the star power of two-time Vezina winner, and $10 million man Sergei Bobrovsky… who'd been Alex Lyon's backup to start the playoffs! Storylines galore.
Whose names will be added to Lord Stanley's Cup? Will it be Aleksander Barkov or Jack Eichel? Mark Stone or Matthew Tkachuk? And will the losing squad get another chance next year, or even in five years? The Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy in sports not only to win, but also just to compete for.
**At the start of the playoffs back in April, Andrew Santillo predicted the Panthers to take home the championship trophy and Tkackuk as the Conn Smythe winner – kudos!
But now the final chapter begins.
Gold Selection: Brandon Montour scores a point (-145)
We all have short memories in fantasy sports. Montour's ADP was 177 at the start of the 2022-23 season. This would be at the end of the 15th round in a 12-team league. He was the 57th highest-picked defenseman, yeah. Michael Del Zotto was the 45th d-man chosen, just for comparison. We all missed it, just like we thought the Boston Bruins were too old as predictions were made last October, and then that the Florida Panthers had no chance to be playing tonight. But here we are, and the Florida offense – and certainly their power play – runs through Montour. He had 73 points in 80 games through the season, breaking the franchise record for defensemen scoring. Believe.
Silver Selection: Alec Martinez blocks 3+ shots (-135)
77 games, 244 blocks. The betting line was 2.5 blocked shots, which is less than his season's average, and he led the NHL. I'd have bet on Martinez at a 3.5 blocks line. Vegas' not-so-secret weapon is net-front defense. This will do three things: Make the Panthers shoot more from the blue line (thus, more blocks), clear away Matthew Tkachuk from the blue paint, and lead their team to a Stanley Cup. Adin Hill has played well, for sure, but the Golden Knights' d-corps has been a major difference in each of their series leading up to the Final.
Bronze Selection: Vegas wins Game One, by exactly two goals (+650)
Ok, gotta take a shot here. The payoff was irresistible. Florida finds that the 10-day layoff caused just a little rust, and Vegas had that "just right" that comes directly from The Three Bears fairy tale. Yes, I feel that the Panthers do benefit from the rest, but maybe five days is actually the magic number.
Side bet #1: At least two overtime games in this year's Final (+145). Just not tonight.
Side bet #2: Chandler Stephenson takes 2+ shots (+110).