It seemed possible that the Columbus Blue Jackets would tinker with their blue line in the offseason considering the injuries and underperformance last season. They started that process by trading for Ivan Provorov earlier this week, and they continued that process on Friday morning by trading for a pending free agent from New Jersey, and promptly extending him for eight years:

The official trade was a third-round pick to New Jersey for Damon Severson's rights, and then Columbus extended him.

Columbus has now added an entire NHL defence pair to the roster for at least the next two seasons with Provorov and Severson. It makes some sense in that they have David Jiriceck and Denton Mateychuk developing and these additions give them some cover until they're ready.

Let's just talk about it. Data from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated.

What Columbus Gets

There is no doubt that Severson is a good puck-moving defenceman. He may have just one season with at least 30 assists – he had 35 in 2021-22 – but his primary assist rate at 5-on-5 from 2019-22 was tied with Dmitry Orlov, and higher than names like Mikhail Sergachev, Brent Burns, John Klingberg, and Torey Krug. His per-minute primary assist rate at 5v5 was inside the 88^th percentile, and his overall assist rate at 5v5 was in the 74^th percentile. Both of those numbers are top-pair assist rates. That was on a team that spent those three years averaging a 5v5 goal rate that was in the bottom-half of the league, too.

It wasn't a function of playing with great players or luck, either. His team-relative expected goals-driving was a top-pair rate in that stretch, too, so the team was generating much more offence with him on the ice. This happens because he's very involved in the play, and we can see that with Corey Sznajder's tracking data. He led the New Jersey blue line in zone exits with possession in the Bubble 2021 season and again in the 2021-22 season. Remember that the second season was with Dougie Hamilton in the lineup, so there was legitimate competition for being the team's top puck-mover. Hamilton was playing hurt for part of the season, but Severson did what he always does: be the engine of the offence from the blue line thanks to his retrievals and exits.

The improved Devils offence in 2022-23 meant better stats for Severson, too.  Though his point totals were low, the big reason for that is he lost over three and a half minutes per game in ice time. On a per-minute 5v5 basis, his overall assist rate, his primary assist rate, and his points rate were all career-highs. He did that, in part, by assisting on teammate scoring chances at a higher rate than almost any regular defenceman in the league:

Playing on one of the most up-tempo teams will juice these numbers a bit, but he also led the 2021-22 Devils by a wide, wide margin and rated comparably that season to Erik Karlsson and Charlie McAvoy. Severson is excellent at moving the puck out of the defensive zone and finding teammates in the offensive zone, showing extremely well as a puck mover.

The flipside of this coin is that being relied upon heavily for defensive zone retrievals and offensive transition means turnovers. It is just the way the game works: players that have the puck most on their stick will turn the puck over most often. Over the last three seasons, the six forwards with the highest official turnover rate, per the NHL, are Evgeni Malkin, Jack Hughes, Mathew Barzal, David Pastrnak, Leon Draisaitl, and Matthew Tkachuk. Aside from Malkin, who turns 37 years old in July, franchises and fans across the league would salivate at the prospect of getting any of those players on their team. While Severson's turnover penchant has been the ire of Devils fans for years, the fact his official turnover rate is barely a top-50 rate, coming in 49^th among 148 blue liners in the sample. Over the last two seasons, his goals against rate at 5-on-5 is the lowest among all regular Devils defencemen.

This isn't to absolve his turnovers or that they haven't come at inopportune times. But, as fans, we'll remember the brutal turnovers that lead to important goals against instead of the hundreds of times he moved the puck out of the zone cleanly and got the offensive transition started. There is some bad, but there is a lot of good, and the good far outweighs the bad.

Severson does have his defensive issues. He is fine, not great, at defending the blue line itself and teams tend to generate good chances when they do gain the blue line. How much of that is Severson and how much is his team and line mates is a fair question, but it is an issue that has persisted on and off for a few years now. He might not be a guy to give 24-25 minutes a night as a top-pair shutdown defenceman, but 21 minutes a night in a secondary role suits him just fine.

How this all works on the Columbus blue line remains to be seen. The additions of Provorov and Severson is very bad news for prospects David Jiricek and Denton Mateychuk. Whatever timelines they had, there are now those two additions, on top of Zach Werenski, to surpass for any meaningful fantasy minutes. It can be done, but for either of them to have a feature role on this team, they'll need to be spectacular very quickly. That goes double if they do hire Mike Babcock as coach.

These additions are bad for anyone not named Werenski, really. It is not hard to see Provorov and Severson being second and third in per-game ice time among the Blue Jackets defencemen. That means guys like Adam Boqvist, Nick Blankenburg, and Erik Gudbranson will struggle to consistently see 20 minutes a night without injuries like last season. It gives Boqvist direct competition for secondary PP time and it gives all three competition for ice time elsewhere.

Setting aside the negatives for the rest of the blue line, this is obviously an upgrade for the team. Severson is a good puck mover and it gives them someone they can rely on when Werenski is on the bench. It should help their forwards, particularly the secondary guys like Kent Johnson or Jack Roslovic, who'll presumably see Severson a lot on their blue line in non-shutdown roles.

In New Jersey, this opens a direct line for Šimon Nemec to make the roster in October. What his role will be is a fair question, but he can now easily slot on the bottom pair. It also opens some secondary power-play time for either him or Luke Hughes.

As for Severson, though he might earn a couple more minutes a night, this Jackets team was 31^st in even-strength goal scoring while the Devils were 3^rd. Even if the forwards stay healthy, there is a long way to go to being acceptable offensively, and that leaves Severson in the lurch. Skating 21 minutes a night doesn't mean he'll return to the 45-point mark. His new team will have to improve a lot up front, and Severson will help them as he did his Devils teammates.

Who This Helps

Šimon Nemec

Luke Hughes

Jack Roslovic

Who This Hurts

David Jiricek

Adam Boqvist

Erik Gudbranson

Damon Severson