A few years ago, a Dobber reader named Striker brought forward the idea that the best system to determine a player’s breakout threshold is to look at games played for specific-sized players. 

You can get more information on the logic behind it here, but basically, it says that 80 per cent of players need 200 or 400 games to break out, depending on the size of the player. 

However, even with that games-played breakout threshold, one of the more popular methods to determine a breakout season is still the fourth-year breakout. 

That four-year system is a more simplified approach to the 200-game/400-game breakout threshold, but basically uses many of the same principles. An NHL player who averages 70 games in each of their first three seasons is at 210 games for their fourth-year breakout, which lines up with the 200-game threshold. 

Of course, the downfall with the four-year breakout is that not all potential fourth-year breakouts are created equal. Some players have played three seasons and have seen 200-plus games of NHL action. Others have fewer than 50 NHL in three years due to demotions, random call-ups or injuries. 

As the annual fantasy guide (buy it here) will focus on the 200-game/400-game breakout threshold, I thought it would be good to also look at potential fourth-year breakouts for this upcoming season. Some of the names on this list may mimic some of the names in the upcoming guide, but others fall significantly short of the 200-game mark. 

10. Shane Pinto

Pinto is entering his fourth season even though he has yet to reach the 100-career-game mark. In 2020-21, he played in the NCAA before joining the Sens late in the season. In 2021-22, he played just five games thanks to a shoulder injury. Last year, he managed to play in all 82 contests and finished with 20 goals and 35 points. Pinto was originally slotted in for the third line but quickly shifted up onto a line with Drake Batherson (with Alex DeBrincat or Claude Giroux rotating in as the third member) as injuries to Josh Norris limited him to eight games. Pinto was also used on the second power-play unit and saw his overall ice time jump to just under 16 minutes per night. Pinto will slot into that third-line role again to start the season, but should move up the lineup fairly quickly if anyone else is injured. 

9. Yegor Sharangovich

The trade to Calgary may have been the best thing for Sharangovich’s career. Last offseason, his value was on the upswing, as he just came off a sophomore season that saw him net 24 goals and 46 points in 76 games while spending most of that year alongside Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt. According to Natural Stat Trick, 79.9 per cent of Sharangovich’s five-on-five minutes in 2021-22 were with Jack Hughes. Last year, his most consistent team was Jesper Boqvist, at 38 per cent as Sharangovich was shifted around the lineup and struggled where ever he played. As a result, his ice time dropped by more than two minutes per contest and his power-play time dried up to virtually nothing. Going to Calgary should see his ice time rise again, and he should be able to get some more minutes on the power play. 

8. Philipp Kurashev

Kurashev’s career high of 25 points might mean he’s not on the radar of many fantasy general managers. However, the Blackhawks will be a much-improved team this year, and Kurashev could see himself in a top-six role with the best players he’s ever had for linemates. Connor Bedard should boost things, but there is also Taylor Hall, Nick Foligno and Andreas Athanasiou. If he can stay in a top-six role with some decent power-play time, he could be one of those players that come out of nowhere this season for an unanticipated season. 

7. Ross Colton

Now in Colorado, Colton is a third-line player who can easily move into a top-six role if needed (and probably will be required, considering Colorado’s health issues of the past). Despite playing less than 12:30 per night, Colton put up 16 goals and 32 points in Tampa last year. And while only averaging 1:16 of power-play time per game, hit a career-high nine power-play points. Two years ago, he scored 22 goals and 39 points in 79 games. As Colorado has more offensive depth than Tampa does, this could bode well for Colton depending on where he slots into the lineup.

6. Tanner Jeannot

Jeannot seems like the most likely replacement for Corey Perry in the whole “third/fourth-line agitator who will sometimes get looks in the top six and top power-play unit.” Perry was perfect in that role for Tampa the last couple of years but has now moved on to Chicago. Jeannot didn’t set the world on fire once he was dealt to Tampa (just four points in 20 games, including a 12-game pointless streak), but he does have a 24-goal, 41-point season under his belt from the 2021-22 campaign. Tampa doesn’t have a lot of offense after the top three forwards, so Jeannot might be leaned on more heavily than he has been before.  

5. K’Andre Miller

Only three defensemen last season had at least 40 points, 150 hits and 100 blocked shots: Kris Letang, Moritz Seider and Miller. The Rangers rearguard almost broke out last season, with 43 points in 79 games despite little power-play time. He also put up 162 hits and 105 blocked shots. Miller started last season with four points in his first 18 games but then had 39 in his remaining 61. Maybe he can usurp some of Jacob Trouba‘s man-advantage time this season, as Trouba has never been a great power-play contributor. 

4. Bowen Byram

There are a multitude of reasons to doubt that Byram could break out in his fourth season. With Cale Makar on the team, Byram won’t see top power-play minutes. There’s also his inability to stay healthy. I also prefer defensemen who average at least two shots per game (this leads to either more goals, or more rebound opportunities for forwards, which would mean more assists for the defenseman shooting the puck). Last year, Byram was on the ice for only 26 per cent of Colorado’s power-play minutes (and collected only six power-play points), played in only 42 games and averaged 1.5 shots per game. There are reasons for optimism, however. He did average almost 22 minutes per night, and despite the lack of shots, did pot 10 goals. He’s also had a 46- and 47-point pace in each of the last two seasons. There’s no denying his offensive ability, he just needs to stay healthy for at least 70 games. 

3. Alexander Barabanov

It is rare for a 29-year-old to have a breakout season, but Barabanov isn’t your typical NHL player. He was an undrafted player who spent seven years in Russia before signing with the Leafs, where he played sparse minutes in only 13 games. A deal to San Jose opened up his potential offense, and he’s been able to get top-six minutes and spent most of last season on the top power-play unit. An injury cut his season short, but in 67 games, he did notch 15 goals, 47 points and 13 power-play points. The Sharks are going through a massive rebuild, and a potential trade of Erik Karlsson could hamper much of the team’s offense, but someone still needs to play top minutes and pick up points. Don’t be surprised if Barabanov reaches 60 points. 

2. Jamie Drysdale

Last season was not a good year for the Ducks defenseman. The team went out and signed John Klingberg, costing Drysdale a shot at top offensive-minded minutes and biting into any power-play time he might have had. Then, in his eighth game of the season, Drysdale suffered a shoulder injury that took him out for the rest of the campaign. Things should be looking up for Drysdale this season. The Klingberg experiment didn’t work and he is now in Toronto, while Kevin Shattenkirk has moved on to Boston. Cam Fowler is Drysdale’s only competition for offensive minutes, and Fowler isn’t known as a great power-play producer (just 14 man-advantage points last year). 

1. Cole Caufield

Caufield’s point-per-game mark increases each season, but his career high is only 43 points thanks to injuries and a half-season with Dominique Ducharme as coach playing him 14 minutes per night on the third line. Last year, a shoulder injury limited Caufield to 46 games, but he finished with 26 goals and 36 points. That equates to an 82-game pace of 46 goals and 64 points. After years of trying to split the power-play duties evenly between two lines, the Habs are loading up their top power-play unit and letting them play two-thirds of the man-advantage minutes, which also bodes well for Caufield. A healthy season from Caufield this year could see him flirt with 40 goals and 70 points.