Eastern Edge: ‘Core Four’ From Each Eastern Team – Part 1
Brennan Des
2023-07-11
In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll begin a review of the 'Core Four' for every team in the East. Grant Campbell, who covers the Western Conference here at DobberHockey, kicked the series off in yesterday's article, with a look at Anaheim, Arizona, Calgary and Chicago.
As Grant established, 'The Core Four' are players who should be the foundation for their team to build on over the next three to five years
Boston Bruins
David Pastrnak (Forward) (27 years old) – The Czech winger led the league in shots last year. He finished second in goal scoring and third in the overall point race. Having signed an eight-year deal in March, you can expect Pastrnak to be a prominent piece of Boston's attack for years to come. Considering he's spent most of his time beside either Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci in recent years, it'll be interesting to see who he plays beside in the future, as Bergeron and Krejci are already pondering retirement.
Charlie McAvoy (Defenseman) (25) – Although McAvoy is regarded as one of the league's top blueliners, internal competition prevents him from being as valuable as other elite defenseman in fantasy leagues. Looking around the league, the most productive defensemen see the lion's share (65%-75%) of their team's power-play time. In contrast, McAvoy only saw a 50% share of Boston's total time with the man advantage last year. During the final quarter of the season, Lindholm (56%) actually saw a greater share (40%) than Charlie. Not having that top power-play role all to himself could prevent McAvoy from reaching the offensive highs that other defensemen of his caliber are able to attain.
Hampus Lindholm (D) (29)– Last season was Lindholm's first full one with the Bruins. He was excellent at both ends of the ice, providing a steady defensive presence throughout the season and stepping up offensively early on, while McAvoy was sidelined. Both McAvoy and Lindholm are on contract for seven more years. Although that's good news for the team, it likely means Lindholm's offensive ceiling will always be limited, since McAvoy is ahead of him in line for offensive opportunity. Although they may both see power-play opportunity, McAvoy started a greater portion of his shifts in the offensive zone (56%) than Lindholm did (47%) last year.
Brad Marchand (F) (35) – I wasn't sure about including Brad on this list because he's 35 years old and has just two years left on his current contract. After flirting with a 100-point pace for five-straight seasons, Marchand posted an underwhelming 75-point pace last year. Although he's been a part of the Bruins' core group for a long time, he may be ousted by younger talent at some point in the coming years. Someone like 20-year-old Fabian Lysell – who was taken 21st overall by Boston in 2021 – has potential to start making waves soon.
Buffalo Sabres
Tage Thompson (F) (25) – Locked up for seven more years, Thompson is the top-centerpiece of a promising young core in Buffalo. He turned some heads with a 71-point pace in 21-22, and demanded even more attention with a 99-point pace last year. As a highly skilled high-volume shooter surrounded by plenty of offensive talent, Thompson is an elite fantasy asset.
Dylan Cozens (F) (22) –The seventh overall pick of the 2019 draft broke out with a 69-point pace this past season. The offensive uptick was thanks in part to a more favourable power-play role – in terms of both ice time quantity and line mate quality. His share of PP time increased from 41% in year two to 52% in year three, and he shared the ice with Buffalo's top line of Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch and Tage Thompson. Cozens' power-play point total rose from nine to 18. The Sabres took notice of his breakout and signed him to a seven-year deal in February, ensuring Cozens remains part of the core for the foreseeable future.
Rasmus Dahlin (D) (23) –Continuing the theme of young Sabres breaking out last year, Dahlin posted 73 points in 78 appearances. Having survived those first few years in Buffalo when the team wasn't all that great, the next few seasons should see Dahlin reap the rewards of being the top defenseman on an incredibly talented team. It'll be interesting to see how he coexists with younger counterpart Owen Power, who should come into his own within the next few years. Dahlin is a restricted free agent (RFA) at the end of next season. You can bet your bottom dollar he's going to get paid top dollar.
Owen Power (D) (20) – Although I gave this spot to Power,I think there's a real argument that Jeff Skinner deserves it right now. Signed for four more years, Skinner is coming off the best offensive year of his 13-year career, having posted 82 points in 79 games. With that being said, if Power reaches the level that many expect he will, I think he'll be a more integral piece of Buffalo's core than Skinner is right now. From a fantasy perspective, Power's offensive is likely limited because he's behind Dahlin on the depth chart, but given his strong two-way ability, I expect Power will have a significant impact of any success Buffalo has in the coming years.
Carolina Hurricanes
Sebastian Aho (F) (25) – Aho has been Carolina's leading scorer in five of the seven seasons he's been with the team. The exceptions were his rookie campaign in 2016-17, when he finished second behind Jeff Skinner, and this past season, when Necas beat him by four points (Necas also played seven more games). Although he's an unrestricted free agent after this season, I sense mutual loyalty between the player and team. I imagine Aho will re-sign with Carolina soon and remain an integral part of the core group.
Andrei Svechnikov (F) (23)– The second overall pick from 2018 has had a massive impact on Carolina's offense, breaking a 70-point pace in three of the last four seasons. A knee injury put an early end to his 2022-2023 campaign, but he's expected to start skating soon and there's hope he'll be healthy for the start of the upcoming year. On contract for the next six years at an annual cap hit of $7.75 million, the Hurricanes have made a big investment in Svechnikov. They'll continue to put him in a position to succeed over these next few years in order to maximize their ROI.
Martin Necas (F) (24) –This season marked the first time in six years that Sebastian Aho didn't lead the Hurricanes in scoring. Instead, it was Necas, who bounced back from a disappointing 40-point showing in 21-22 to tally 71 this past year. The uptick in production was fuelled by an increased role as he skated 18 and a half minutes a night and finally saw significant power-play action. An RFA after the 2023-2024 campaign, the way Carolina approaches contract negotiations will determine whether Necas remains a part of the core going forward.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi (F) (23) – Calling Kotkaniemi a part of Carolina's core seems outlandish when you consider his best offensive season saw him post just 43 points. But that 43-point campaign happened just last year. He's been on an upward trend recently and given his age, his best years are likely ahead of him. At present, he may not have the same impact on the team as someone like Jaccob Slavin. However, considering Kotkaniemi has the most term (7 years) left on his contract out of all the Hurricanes, the team clearly believes in him. If he doesn't take a step forward soon though, I could see him being surpassed by someone like Seth Jarvis.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Johnny Gaudreau (F) (29) – When Gaudreau signed a seven-year deal with a cap hit of $9.75 million last summer, he became the focal point of Columbus' current core. His first year with the Blue Jackets was far from ideal as he posted just 76 points – a far cry from the 115 points he tallied the previous year in Calgary. In his defense, Columbus was decimated by injuries last year, which made adapting to new surroundings even more difficult. The team currently possesses more talent than it did last year, so look for Gaudreau to bounce back during the 2023-2024 campaign.
Patrik Laine (F) (25) – Since he's been sidelined with injuries for significant stretches, I think Laine's offensive impact in Columbus has been underappreciated. During these past two years, he's scored at roughly a point-per-game pace (108 points in 111 games). He's the second-best forward on the roster and is on contract for three more years, so I think it's fair to classify him as part of the core.
Zach Werenski (D) (25) – Although Werenski missed much of the 2022-2023 campaign due to a shoulder injury, I imagine he'll pick up right where he left off from the 21-22 season, when he posted a 58-point pace. The Blue Jackets committed to Werenski in 2021, signing him to a 6-year deal with an annual cap hit of roughly $9.5 million. Although the team recently added a couple more solid names to their blueline (Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson), I think Werenski is still the most offensively gifted off the bunch. As a result, he should continue being deployed in a position to score this season. Given Werenski's injury history, it'll be interesting to see if someone like Severson or even David Jiricek – the sixth overall pick from 2022 – can steal offensive minutes from Werenski in the coming years.
Adam Fantilli (F) (18) – Drafted third overall in 2023, most expect Fantilli to develop into a top-center over the next few years. He'll likely see some time on the top line beside Patrik Laine and Johnny Gaudreau this season. Among Columbus' current center core, Fantilli has the highest offensive ceiling. I don't think it's a question of if he can be a top center, it's when.