Top 10 Picks From a Dynasty League’s Prospect Draft
Tom Collins
2023-07-17
Most years in dynasty fantasy leagues, there is debate on who to select first overall.
Whoever had the first overall pick last year, for example, could have gone with Shane Wright, Simon Nemec or Juraj Slafkovsky, and none would have been the incorrect choice. The year before, any of Owen Power, Luke Hughes, Matty Beniers or Mason McTavish would have been a solid first-overall fantasy pick, depending on your team’s needs.
This year, there is no debate about first overall. After that pick, however, is where everything is up in the air.
I'm in a 24-team dynasty league where each team is owned by a Dobber forum member, and our five-round prospect draft started on Saturday.
To give you some idea of our league, during the season, each team has three centers, three left wingers, three right wingers, three forwards, six defensemen and a goalie in an active roster spot. We have six reserve spots and 15 minor league spots. By the time the season starts, 960 players are already drafted. There are also four injured reserve spots.
We’re also a cap league, with a $100-million budget. It's a head-to-head league, with points assigned in each category. For instance, goals and assists are each worth one point, with a power-play point worth an extra 0.5 points. There are also points for plus/minus, blocked shots, shots, hits, PIM and faceoffs, plus goalie categories. You match up against one other team each week, and whoever has the most points at the end of the games on Sunday wins the matchup. The top eight teams make the playoffs based on their win/loss records.
To give you an idea of the thought process behind our prospect draft, I reached out to all the GMs with a top-10 pick to get their thoughts on why they drafted their player.
1. Connor Bedard, picked by Fresno Firebirds (Pit Bulls)
As mentioned earlier, Bedard was an easy choice. But Fresno did his due diligence, looking at the rosters of all 23 other teams in the month before that draft to see if there would be a potential trade. He “quickly came to the conclusion no team had enough assets to warrant moving Bedard. I expect Bedard to score somewhere in the 60–70-point range this year and win the Calder. Going forward, I see him as a top-five talent and once Chicago’s prospects make the show and Connor McDavid begins to slow down, Bedard will eventually become the best player in the NHL. But that will be probably five-plus years out. In the meantime, I get to enjoy the first three years of his entry-level contract and reap the benefits as a cap-friendly option. I fully expect his second contract to reflect his top-five status, so I will have to manage my cap hit around that.”
2. Adam Fantilli, picked by James Bay Cougars (InForAPenny)
With Bedard going first, the Cougars’ decision came down to Fantilli and Leo Carlsson. “As the season wore on … I really liked what Leo Carlsson was doing,” he said. “I went back and forth between Fantilli and Carlsson, eventually landed on Fantilli where the upside offensively may be a touch higher.”
3. Leo Carlsson, picked by Windsor Spitfires (Penguin7)
The Spitfires had the number one pick the last two years, so Penguin is used to high draft picks. Penguin raves about Carlsson’s hockey sense. “I think he’s a lock to center Trevor Zegras and I think he’ll play PP1,” he said. “Especially with all the offensive defensemen Anaheim has incoming – there’s a LOT of future offense there and a player is only going to need to make smart decisions/passing to be in on token assists. Hence, I think Anaheim works for Carlsson. I also think he’ll be in NHL full-time 2024-25.”
4. Matvei Michkov, picked by Hamilton Steelheads (Dennis)
Many fantasy general managers may be mimicking their NHL counterparts when it comes to Michkov, worried that a three-year KHL deal means he won’t see NHL action until 2026-27. However, most of those taken in a prospect draft will probably spend two years in juniors and then a year in the AHL anyways, so you’re still looking at the same three-year window. Dennis said Michkov was the player he wanted to drop to him at fourth. “In a less stable league or one where I was closer to competing, I could justify maybe considering someone else,” he said. “But Michkov seems to be a player who can score and create goals at a high level. And with high picks, I believe in taking a swing at the highest potential fantasy player. I dislike the guaranteed wait time as much as anyone but now I have a window in my future to build towards a team where Michkov's entry-level contract years will be put to good use.”
5. Will Smith, picked by South Carolina Stingrays (BlackhawksFan)
For the Stingrays, the choice at this spot was between Smith and Zachary Benson, but went with Smith because of his NHL team. “I picked Smith because he was drafted by the San Jose Sharks, whereas Benson was drafted by Buffalo,” he wrote. “Buffalo has a ton of winger prospects in their pool versus the San Jose pipeline.”
6. Zachary Benson, picked by Amsterdam Red Lights (rataylor22)
Amsterdam had back-to-back picks and chose to go with two forwards, saying Benson “was the obvious pick. I think he has one of the highest offensive upsides in the class and it would have been a tough call for me at five between Smith and Benson. Every scouting report I’ve read talks about his already elite defense (to gain coaches’ trust quickly) and the only real knock is his size. I simply don’t buy into that size bias in today’s NHL.”
7. Ryan Leonard, picked by Amsterdam Red Lights (rataylor22)
For this pick, rataylor was debating between a pool of four players: Leonard, Dalibor Dvorsky, Gabe Perreault and Matthew Wood. “The choice ultimately came down to the NHL draft,” he said. “I don’t like drafting Blues (internal bias), and I’m really hesitant to draft Rangers given how they have developed forward prospects as well. Plus, with the 16-slot gap between Leonard and Perreault, that was a tough choice to make. I just felt Leonard would be developed better and have more opportunity in Washington than the other three guys I was considering.”
8. Dalibor Dvorsky, picked by Fort Frances Muskies (Burgundy)
Just like rataylor, the Muskies had back-to-back picks in the top 10. Before the draft, Burgundy was hoping Benson or Leonard would fall to this spot. When that didn’t happen, his choice was between Dvorsky, Wood, Oliver Moore, Nate Danielson and Cody Barlow. Last year’s fantasy draft also played a role in this year’s selections. “I’d spent two high picks in last year’s draft on Simon Nemec and David Jiricek and am quite happy with my defensive depth, so taking a dman with either of these picks was not something I considered here. I thought I might use my B2B picks on a safe pick and a bit of a riskier pick. Dvorsky (theoretically) represents a safe pick for a productive player. Ranked in the top 10 in most sources I read before the draft, he seems to project as a smart, solid 2C with the potential to play in all situations and be a good multi-cat option.”
9. Oliver Moore, picked by Fort Frances Muskies (Burgundy)
Moore seemed to be the player many GMs outside the top 10 were hoping would fall. “I think of that group of forwards I was considering, he has the highest potential to really pop, with a common player comparison made to Dylan Larkin,” said Burgundy. “Obviously there is the tantalizing possibility of a position change to play alongside Bedard one day or maybe share PP opportunities with him, but the reports on Moore’s skating ability, hands and drive make me think he’s going to be at least another all-situation top-six player with a good chance to spend a lot of time alongside a superstar.”
10. Colby Barlow, picked by Sudbury Wolves (Butch)
The Wolves said they liked Barlow as he fits into the style of play Butch was looking for at this spot. “His scoring ability meshed with the sandpaper style of game is what did it for me,” he said. “I only found out during the NHL draft about the leadership qualities and scholastic awards, so that was a nice cherry on top. I’m slightly worried about his skating, but these guys work hard at improving every perceived weakness in their games all the time, so he should be fine. I had made my mind up that I would not take any small skilled players so I focused on Barlow, Wood, Sale, and Dvorsky as being my pick with a side dish of hoping Leonard could slide.”
Here is how the rest of the first round went down:
11. Axel Sandin Pellikka, drafted by South Carolina Stingrays (BlackhawksFan)
12. Gabe Perreault, drafted by Windsor Spitfires (Pengwin7)
13. Matthew Wood, drafted by Valley Wildcats (Axeman33)
14. Quentin Musty, drafted by Victoria Dead Hookers (Loch)
15. Brayden Yager, drafted by Lake Valley Thunder (First Round Pick)
16. David Reinbacher, drafted by Montreal Bulldogs (niconasr)
17. Dmitri Simashev, drafted by Sherbrooke Phoenix (Dr.Brad)
18. Gavin Brindley, drafted by Thornhill Rebels (Eskimo Brother)
19. Eduard Sale, drafted by South Carolina Stingrays (BlackhawksFan)
20. Nate Danielson, drafted by Edmonton Road Runners (Lemmy)
21. Otto Stenberg, drafted by South Carolina Stingrays (BlackhawksFan)
22. Samuel Honzek, drafted by Edmonton Road Runners (Lemmy)
23. Tom Willander, drafted by Vancouver Voodoo (GoNucks)
24. Calum Ritchie, drafted by Valley Wildcats (Axeman33)
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Looking to create a dynasty league. Could you list all the rules/roster stuff in your league? Sounds super cool