Ramblings: This Summer’s Five Best and Worst Free Agency Signings (Aug 9)
Alexander MacLean
2023-08-09
Not a lot of news outside of the Anaheim Ducks (Alex Stalock) and Florida Panthers (Anthony Stolarz) signing some organizational goalie depth. Unless you believe that this means Spencer Knight won't be ready for the beginning of the season or that a John Gibson trade is imminent (I don't), then there's no fantasy relevance here except for the deepest of leagues where Stalock would be worth a look based on volume and possibly catching lighting in a bottle.
For the rest of the article I'm going to run through my top- and bottom-five signings from free-agency thus far (that means early extensions aren't included).
The Top-Five:
1) Jeremy Swayman and Filip Gustavsson
One year at $3.475 million (arbitration) & Three years at $3.75M
Getting a young starting goalie locked up for under $4 million is a great bargain for a team with playoff aspirations, as it allows the team to spend some of that money elsewhere. Both Swayman and Gustavsson put up excellent numbers last year, and look primed to do so again this year. They both have a veteran starter to share the crease with, so neither will see a heavy 60-start workload, but even in 40+ games they can be top-15 fantasy goalies because of their exceptional peripherals.
Ilya Samsonov falls under these criteria as well, though his fantasy upside is more on the volume side of the spectrum than the ratio/peripheral side.
Two years at $3.4M
Unlike the RFAs above, Frederik Andersen has a clear track record as a successful starting goalie, and was an unrestricted free agent that was able to test the market, so why then did he end up taking the same money, with term, as his RFA counterparts? The injury history is one thing, and while it may be more extensive than Tristan Jarry's for example, he also had some on his track record, and landed a long extension at over $5 million a year.
That's what makes this deal so great for Carolina, is not only was it an amazing deal compared to market value, but having to go fish for a free agent goalie is always a perilous task, with goalies being so variable especially when it comes to adapting to new teams and new defensive structures.
Two years at $3.872M
I was so worried about this contract that I traded him away in a cap league because I thought it was going to be a long extension in the $5-7 million range. The Rangers kicked the can down the road here, and they are definitely in trouble in 2025-26 before the contracts of Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba expire in the summer of 2026. [Trouba might be primed for a buyout that summer.]
Meanwhile, Miller is one of the most effective Defencemen in the league, and one of the most fun to watch at both ends of the ice. As he grows more into his role and his comfort, expect his impact on the ice to just continue to grow.
He's a peripherals beast in fantasy, and the only thing holding him back from being a top-10 fantasy defenceman is the presence of some guy named Adam Fox.
Bowen Byram signed a nearly identical deal to Miller's, but for my money Miller is the better one of the two.
4) Tyler Bertuzzi / Max Domi
One year each at $5.5M and $3.0M respectively
I'm lumping these two together because they're signed to similar one-year deals in Toronto. It was a changing of the guard by bringing in Brad Treleving as the new GM, but he hasn't moved any of the core-four (the right call unless he gets an exceptional return). Instead, he's taking that same group for one last ride, and reinforcing them with some short-term bets that provide upgrades on Alex Kerfoot and Michael Bunting.
The John Klingberg contract should also be mentioned here as one of the one-year free agency deals that Treleving signed under the same team direction, and Klingberg does have a lot of upside. The problem is that the 30-year-old defenceman has been trending down for the last few years now, and might have been the least serviceable defenceman in the league last season. Using up a sizeable chunk of change to bring him in can in no way get his name onto the first list. It's only the offensive upside that then keeps him off of my top-five worst deals list.
One year at $800K
The buyout from Winnipeg left Blake Wheeler with his choice of destination, and with a steady paycheck for the upcoming two seasons. That meant that he could take a discount to go where he wanted to, and chase a cup in whatever city he desired. With the Rangers in need of some help at RW, it was an excellent match – at least it is on paper.
Wheeler's scoring pace tailed off below the 70-point mark for the first time since 2014-15. Looking under the hood, Wheeler has the most consistent table of underlying numbers that I have ever seen. His five-on-five shooting percentage (a metric often used as a barometer for luck, which tend to fluctuate anywhere from six to 14%, is basically a flat line his entire career (between eight to nine percent). His IPP numbers, secondary assist numbers, and shooting percentages have all been extremely consistent. His shots per minute rate and his overall ice time both dropped this past season, which was the overall reason for his decline in scoring. If he sees 19 minutes a night on the top line in New York then he is a 70-point forward again. If he sees 15-16 minutes per game plus some power play time, then he's a 50- to 60-point second-line winger, which is still well worth the cost.
The Bottom-Five:
1) The Chicago Blackhawks
You don't want to know
Just the entire perspective here stinks. Corey Perry, Nick Foligno, Ryan Donato, and Andreas Athanasiou for a combined $14.25M, and there's basically no re-sell value there either. There were better ways to build up the dressing room, to hit the cap floor, and to accumulate assets. Just terrible management around all in all, and it hurts the fantasy value of the rest of the roster in the short term.
2) Dmitry Orlov
Two years at $7.75M
This isn't a terrible signing initially because Orlov is a solid player and gives the Canes one of the best and most mobile D cores in the league. However, it is a prime example of the issue with GMs managing the FA market. The Canes had no need for Orlov, and just threw away a large part of their cap flexibility in order to overpay one of the top defencemen on the market. Between Brent Burns, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei, Jalen Chatfield, Dylan Coghlan, and having subsequently brought back Tony DeAngelo, Dmitry Orlov isn't needed in a top-four role (though he will play in one) and won't get much power play exposure at all. Instead, the Canes could have put the money towards filling their second-line centre hole.
I would have loved to see that extra money put towards a Trevor Zegras offersheet of $10.5M for three to five years. I know that offersheets are a pipe-dream, but for two firsts, a second, and a third, there's no harm done to Carolina either way, and it wouldn't be the first time they've thrown one out either.
3) J.T. Compher
Five years at $5.1M
Compher isn't a bad player, but he's also not likely the second-line centre that Detroit needs to become they playoff powerhouse they are trying to build towards. At the price tag he's signed for, that's the expectation. He's an average-sized player with over 400 career games who finally broke out to a 50-point-pace because he was given over 20-minutes of ice time per game (including nearly three minutes per game on the power play). Unless Detroit sees a string of injuries like Colorado did last year, I don't expect that 50-point-plateau to be reached again. That is going to make it tough for Compher to live up to his contract, and the perception around him is going to turn sour pretty quickly. At least the contract is structured fairly well as to make a buyout decently palatable at almost any point.
4) Ryan Reaves
Three years at $1.35M
The one player that the Leafs gave term to in free agency was the one player over 35 that they signed, which seems a little backwards. Especially when the team is pinching pennies and it is a fourth-liner that they paid nearly double the league-minimum. It seems especially concerning when you consider that Sheldon Keefe doesn't have a history of keeping enforcers in the lineup, so it's very possible that as early as this season Reaves is spending some stretches up in the press box.
5) Radko Gudas
Three years at $4.0M
Like Ryan Reaves, but at least Gudas gives the value of playing a lot of minutes, and killing penalties. To an extent, he helps balance out the young defence core of the Ducks. There are a number of young, skilled, puck-movers coming up, and adding some muscle to the back end may help protect them a little. However, Gudas won't be a help to them at all with actually managing the puck, and that presents an issue when you are trying to bring in young defencemen. Giving them negative support players is not a great stepping stone for their developmental years. Especially when the team is paying extra to do so. Last season's signing of Erik Gudbranson for the same amount in Columbus has not played that well, and there's not a great reason that it will for Gudas either. At least for his fantasy owners there should be plenty of minutes, and as a result plenty of peripherals stacked up.
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Agree or disagree with me, you can find me on Twitter (I will continue to call it that) @alexdmaclean to let me know, or if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments. See you next Wednesday!