Today on Frozen Tool Forensics we are taking a slight departure from a stat specific review of players and focusing a bit more on deployment going into 23-23. The Erik Karlsson trade highlights what might just be a recent trend. Teams with a seemingly entrenched top power-play quarterback acquiring a second. Erik Karlsson, John Klingberg, Anthony DeAngelo, Jacob Chychrun – all these moves seem to challenge the status quo and got me thinking about the breakdown at large. How many teams do still have a bona fide number one? This week we are going to dig into the top power-play D position. Who are the no-brainers, and where are some of the competitions, and maybe the changing of the guards.

To start we are going to look at the established guys who should be no question going into 23-24. Essentially these are situations where we have an established top player, and the team made no moves to augment during the off season.

Below is a table that is organized by percent of the power-play held (assuming a greater than 50 percent share). Unless otherwise noted there isn't really a challenger on the depth chart for the 23-24 season:

This list makes 15 players, or about half of the NHL teams that seem to have an established top defensemen. Looking at the list through I think we can break it down a little further.

Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox, Cale Makar, Roman Josi, and Miro Heiskanen are about as safe as you can be. Consistent elite production, at their position and no real challengers. Zach Werenski fits into this category here as well, but I wanted to specifically note him as he missed so much time last season, he won't be showing up on many 22-23 lists.

Drew Doughty, Dougie Hamilton, and Rasmus Dahlin are (or at least have been) similarly elite in their performances given the deployment so are certainly secure for the moment, but all have a potential rookie waiting in the wings to possibly challenge at some point over the next few years. Still, only Drew Doughty is any real danger and that is mostly because of age. Like Werenski, I wanted to list John Carlson separately as he might not be top of mind because of all the time he lost to injury in 22-23. I would have typically thought of him in that first group, but the addition of Rasmus Sandin and his dramatic success in 22-23 certainly means there is another option in Washington if Carlson struggles.

Calen Addison and Noah Dobson, and to some extent Rasmus Andersson are here a bit by default as their success in the position has been somewhat suspect, but given no moves have yet been made, they seem to still have a hold on their position. Cam Fowler sort of fits into this category too, but I ultimately decided to include him a bit later.

So, if 15 teams seem to have an established QB that means there are 17 that now do not.

Further, we can break these teams down into two groups; teams we know something about their deployment strategies, and teams we don't.

For the first group (teams where we have some recent games played for deployment data) we have eight teams.

In Florida, Edmonton, and Tampa we are having something of a changing of the guards happening. Brandon Montour received the vast majority of the power-play in Florida for 22-23, with Aaron Ekblad only staying on the unit if they were running two defensemen. Montour being injured and out for the beginning of the season is the only reason he isn't on the above list. Assuming nothing unexpected happens during that period of time we have he will be back on that top power-play once he returns. But missing a chunk of time is a big enough flag that he is a bit lower on the list. 

In Edmonton, Evan Bouchard is the top dog and the only reason he isn't on the above list is because his ascendence is relatively new. He doesn't show up in any of the reports as having a significant portion of the power-play share because he only got the top job once Tyson Barrie left town at the trade deadline. Pending any further shake ups though he should be manning the most dangerous power play in the league and any future lists will likely include him in the 'sure thing' bucket.

In Tampa we are in a slight wait-and-see scenario with Mikhail Sergachev relieving incumbent Victor Hedman of his duties for large chunks of the 22-23 season. It might be a little early to call this situation settled given we don't have many details as to why this change happened, but the signs are not looking positive for Hedman.

Moving on, Anaheim is sort of a group unto itself with Cam Fowler. Fowler did have just over 50 percent of the total time, so almost makes sense to have in the top group but his performance has been pretty lackadaisical for a while now and is just begging for someone to step up and take it from him. Jaime Drysdale has seemed like the best candidate, but a shoulder injury hampered his opportunity in 22-23 so Fowler really feels ripe for the taking.

The remaining group consists of four teams; Vegas, Seattle, St. Louis, and Boston. Each of these teams runs a much closer split with their power-plays and it can be 'an any given week' sort of thing as to either which power play, or which defensemen is the top one to roster. Overall, in 22-23 the edge in power-play time on ice went to Alex Pietrangelo for Vegas, Vince Dunn in Seattle, Torey Krug in St. Louis, and Charlie McAvoy in Boston, but it certainly came with a lot of ups and downs. McAvoy in particular should have been the top dog, but like Hedman he ended up losing out on a lot of power-play time to Hampus Lindholm and Dimtry Orlov (who luckily for McAvoy isn't with the team any more).

The rest of the teams all have some really interesting additions that could throw a wrench into the established patterns of deployment. We will dig into those next week.

That is all for this week.

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