Eastern Edge: Veterans To Avoid This Season
Brennan Des
2023-08-15
In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss a few players I'd prefer to avoid in fantasy leagues this season.
After flirting with a hundred-point pace for five straight seasons, Marchand took a step back last year, posting a 75-point pace. In all fairness, that's a strong level of offense considering he'd just recovered from a major hip surgery during the offseason and started the campaign late. Although I still think Marchand can be a valuable fantasy asset, I have a few concerns.
For starters, he's currently 35 years old. Although we've seen players produce at a high level in their mid-30s, I think age-related decline now becomes a more important factor to consider. Then there's that surgery we mentioned. In May 2022, Marchand underwent a procedure on both of his hips. Although he returned in late October – a month ahead of schedule – he alluded months later (March 2023) that he still wasn't feeling 100%. Although this offseason could give him a chance to get back to where he wants to be physically, it's also possible that last year's surgery has a lasting impact on how he plays the game. My final and most serious concern relates to Patrice Bergeron's retirement. Marchand and Bergeron had great chemistry together, so it'll be interesting to see if Marchand is able to perform at an elite level without the two-way prowess of his partner in crime. While I don't think Marchand's production will fall off entirely, I think the cost to acquire him is much higher than the value he provides.
Ullmark was the best goalie in the league last season, supplementing a pristine 40-6-1 record with a sparkling .938 save percentage and 1.89 GAA. His excellent play boosted his fantasy stock to the point where you'll have to use a pick in one of the first few rounds of fantasy drafts if you want him on your roster. Considering fantasy sports is all about maximizing value, that price is a little too rich for my blood.
A common conversation in fantasy hockey is the lack of consistency provided by goaltenders. In my eyes, for a goalie to be worth a top draft pick they need to (1) possess a high level of individual talent, (2) play behind a strong team, (3) have a relatively clean record of health in recent years, and (4) be the clear-cut starter for their squad. Holding Ullmark up against my little list, the only thing I can confidently give him is individual talent. Sure, the Bruins were incredible during the regular season last year, but they're definitely weaker now that David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron have retired. When it comes to health, I'm not overly concerned about Ullmark, but it's worth mentioning he was hurt during the 2023 playoffs. Finally, although Ullmark saw more starts than his counterpart Jeremy Swayman last year, the duo split starts evenly the season before. At 24 years of age, Swayman is an up-and-coming netminder who should see significant action again this year. Unlike other bona fide starters, Ullmark probably won't see a super high volume of starts, which lessens the impact he can have for your fantasy roster. In my opinion, it makes more sense to acquire your goalies using less expensive mid to late-round picks. At those prices, it's more likely that your selections will outperform their costs.
In previous years, concerns about Letang's age and injury history were easier to ignore because of his status as top offensive defenseman on a team with multiple superstar forwards. However, Letang has lost his throne on Pittsburgh's blueline following the team's acquisition of Erik Karlsson. Now, the threat of a diminishing role piles on to previous age and injury worries, making it safer to avoid Letang in fantasy leagues this year.
Letang has seen a prominent role on the power play throughout his career, but with Karlsson in town, that role is very much in jeopardy. When the Penguins are healthy, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, and Erik Karlsson are virtually locks for the top unit – leaving one more spot for either Letang or Rickard Rakell. Obviously, a demotion to the second unit would be worst case scenario for Letang. However, even if Pittsburgh runs two defensemen on PP1, if more of the offense runs through Karlsson – a plausible outcome given his talent – it's possible Letang's power-play production still takes a hit. Less offense with the man advantage would be bad news for Letang, as nearly 40% of his career points have come on the power play.