Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades – New Jersey Devils
Ryan Brudner
2023-08-25
For the last 20 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.
The 20th annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart. Enjoy!
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Gone: Mackenzie Blackwood, Ryan Graves, Damon Severson, Yegor Sharangovich, Tomas Tatar, Miles Wood, Jesper Boqvist, Jonathan Bernier
Incoming: Cal Foote, Colin Miller, Tomas Nosek, Tyler Toffoli, Chris Tierney
Impact of Changes: This blossoming Devils team didn't need to do much in the offseason to improve their outlook for this season. New Jersey has become an offensive juggernaut with many players developing well and taking big steps forward last season with Nico Hischier, Dawson Mercer, and superstar Jack Hughes all setting career highs in goals, assists, points, power play points, and shots. With Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, and newly acquired Tyler Toffoli in the picture, the Devils have a very intriguing top 6 for fantasy purposes. This team was 4th in goals scored last season and 2nd in expected goals for. Their high-scoring style will continue and may even improve with Meier properly adjusting and the addition of Toffoli providing a veteran offensive presence to the group.
The one area this team may get slightly worse in is on the defensive side, losing two of their top 4 defensemen from last year in Ryan Graves and Damon Severson. Both aren't necessarily shutdown defensemen, but their ice time will be replaced by either rookies (see below), or borderline bottom-pair defensemen Colin Miller or Cal Foote. The Devils were very strong defensively last season ranking 8th in goals against and 7th in expected goals against. They should still be strong defensively, but their goalies may need to make a few more key saves than last year.
Speaking of goalies, Blackwood clearing out and Jonathan Bernier retiring has opened the door for Akira Schmid to be a legitimate 1B to Vitek Vanecek's 1A. Schmid ultimately beat out Vanecek for the starting job in the playoffs when it mattered most, and this is a great sign for the 23-year-old to get 30-40 starts this season. I do think Vanecek has the edge this season as he is getting paid to be the starter, but if he falters on this strong defensive team, be ready to grab Schmid.
Ready for Full Time: Luke Hughes, Nolan Foote, Tyce Thompson
Luke Hughes, the cover boy of Dobber's Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report, is ready to fill one of the vacancies that Severson and Graves left. Hughes is one of the most talented Defenseman prospects in the game. He absolutely dominated the NCAA last year and impressed in his two regular season games, putting up a goal and an assist. After sitting in the press box for the Devil's first 9 playoff games, Hughes impressed even more in three playoff games against the Hurricanes, posting 2 assists, and being trusted in a top 4 role. There should be no doubt in Hughes grabbing a roster spot and playing meaningful minutes this season, though his ceiling may be capped if he doesn't make his way onto that top power play unit. With the depth of his skill and potential, he just might.
Arguably the next best defenseman prospect in the league is also in the Devils system, Simon Nemec. Nemec had a strong finish with the Utica Comets in the AHL posting 16 points in his final 17 games and 4 points in 6 playoff games. The Devils probably want him to develop further in Utica again this season, but he may get called up for some games here and there. If he is given meaningful minutes in those games, he may be worth a stream.
Nolan Foote was a once highly touted prospect after being drafted 27th overall in 2019. After 4 seasons of development, he has improved many areas of his game being a main driver of play for the Utica Comets last season. He scored 20 goals and 37 points last season and will likely be given a shot to play bottom-six minutes for the Devils this season. That may not excite you, but Foote has potential to be serviceable in banger leagues. He is not afraid to shoot the puck and he has averaged close to 7.0 hits/60 minutes in his 19 NHL games over the last 3 years. This could increase if he is stuck on a more defensively minded line. Even with bottom six minutes, Foote has a chance at 2 shots/game and 2 hits/game. If he were ever to be given a crack at the top six, he could be a banger stud.
Alexander Holtz has loads of potential, but unfortunately was a healthy scratch for most of the season in the NHL after "making the team", playing only 19 NHL games. He did not do much with that opportunity. When he was finally sent down to Utica to get some playing time, he led the team in shots per game with 3.14 and posted 6 goals and 11 points in 14 games. If Holtz can turn things around and squeeze his way into playing with some talent, he has 30-plus-goal potential written all over him. He definitely has the skill and the shot to be an NHL sniper, but the Devils forward group is now quite crowded and the organization may just let Holtz develop a bit more in the AHL this season.
Thompson will get a look at a depth role but he'll have to earn it. At 24 years old and on a rising team, time is running out for him to earn his spot with the franchise, and this season may be his last chance to do it with New Jersey.
Fantasy Outlook: This team should continue to be an offensive juggernaut and a fantasy gold mine. Anyone in the top 6 will be worth a roster spot in most leagues. It will be interesting to see how the lines shake out, but Jack Hughes, who is a legitimate top 10 talent in chance generation, has plenty of talented potential line mates to continue his upward trajectory in this league. Whomever lines up with him at even strength, whether it is Meier, Toffoli, Bratt, or Mercer, will be highly sought after. Ondrej Palat and Alexander Holtz are dark horses to play with him at even strength, but if they do, their fantasy stock will increase substantially.
The Devils were surprisingly low in power play goals last season, ranking 20th in goals and 13th in power play conversion (21.9%). A very surprising stat to explain this is that they ranked 31st in power play opportunities last season. In the playoffs, they were able to draw more power plays, though they had trouble converting on only 16.7% of their opportunities. All of these stats should improve and provide the Devils with many more power play goals this coming season. The first power play unit will be something to monitor in training camp. Jack Hughes, Hischier, and Hamilton may be the only "locks", with Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt, Luke Hughes, Dawson Mercer, and Ondrej Palat all potential fill-ins.
There is tremendous value to be had with the Devils goaltending situation compared to current ADPs. It is also much clearer without Blackwood. Vanecek will be the 1A with Akira Schmid as the 1B. On this strong team, both goalies will be worth a roster spot as a 2nd or 3rd goalie on fantasy rosters. It will take a couple weeks to see how the coaches plan to use them, but if one runs away with the starting job, he'll be extremely valuable. Schmid can be a dark horse here as a waiver add if he usurps Vanecek again like he did in the playoffs.
Fantasy Grade: A- (Last year was a B-)
Hope you enjoyed. Follow Ryan Brudner (of Top Cheddar Fantasy) on Twitter/X here.