Ramblings: When to Draft Patrick Kane? Will Clarke/Edvinsson Make the Team? Will Fantilli Help Right Away? More (Aug 28)
Dobber
2023-08-28
The 18th annual Fantasy Guide was last updated on Friday, just with some player tryout notes. News will pick up very soon, and I also have a few columns to get in.
But the big news was the release of my Goalie Post app. Oh yes, it's here. And it's a beauty. Besides a facelift in the look, I have also put in calculations for probable win projections – a bar that goes right or left towards the team the calculation favors…goes further, the more of a favorite that team is. I use back-to-back info, home/road info, recent performance and longer-term performance. There is also a projected save bar for each starting goalie, based on how the opposition has been shooting lately (and long-term) and how his own team has been preventing shots lately (and long-term) to help you make the decision! The app is free.
Get it on your iPhone here. And I have a request: after you download it, give it a day or two, and then please rate five stars and comment. My programmers, without my knowledge, added a comment. And to me, the comments look fake! So if you could please give a 'real' comment from a hockey fan, and bury those two, that would be a huge help. They are unable to remove them LOL.
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No, because it never hurts to transition a top prospect into the AHL first. However, he's pretty close to NHL-ready and I have a feeling he'll be called up early. He'll likely impress enough with that stint that he gets called up again – and by January, Clarke will make it impossible to be sent back down because he's just too good. That's my prediction.
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In a keeper league that only keeps four players, this means that players such as Jake Guentzel, Cole Caufield, Dylan Cozens, and possibly Trevor Zegras and Mikhail Sergachev will be available this year – and that caliber of player will be available every year. So, no, in a league such as this I would worry about Fantilli in later rounds. There are plenty of proven players with similar upside who are more likely to give immediate 70-point help.
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Matthews, Kucherov and Crosby.
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I think he makes the team this year, or becomes a very early call-up – and stays for good. He's 6-6 and is NHL-ready both physically and in his play. But I don't think he puts up fantasy-relevant points this year. For the next two seasons after this one, I think he'll produce enough to help at the bottom of a fantasy squad. But it will be closer to four before he offers serious fantasy help.
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Nope. A thousand times no. I can count on one hand how many goalies give you guaranteed wins and numbers, and Colorado's starting goalie is on that hand. A split-duty goalie, a prospect goalie and a high draft pick is not enough for that security. Even with a top defenseman added (we all know Montour is going to take a step back).
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I'm a fan of Tommy Novak, but his sample size is too small to take him over established producers like Tomas Hertl or Vincent Trocheck.
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Hyman, and not because he'll have the best career, but he stands to have the best chance of having the most points this year and next. At that point, you could flip him for quality return. I like Verhaeghe next, though both he and McCann can produce the points they're producing without help. Hyman obviously needs Connor McDavid for his numbers.
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I have Patrick Kane playing 60 games and tallying low-50s for points. I think hip surgery will help, but he's probably looking at a slow start upon his return. That puts him in the 150s in terms of ranking player projections by points. But with his injury, the risk there, and the fact that other owners will shy away from him, I would let him slip further and look at him in the 180s. That's about the 15th round for your typical 12-team league. If the league counts Hits and/or PIM I would let him slide further.
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Great question, though I've been talking up the defensemen offense trend for several years now. But it's definitely taken a completely different level. I identify any defenseman who is a safe bet for 55 points – but also has the upside for 75 – and I push them up ahead of point-per-game forwards on my list. There aren't many of these defensemen, so getting that kind of production on your roster in those spots is a huge advantage.
Here are the defensemen, just giving the list a quick glance: Shea Theodore, Dougie Hamilton, Brandon Montour, Evan Bouchard, Charlie McAvoy, Mikhail Sergachev, Miro Heiskanen, Josh Morrissey, Roman Josi, Adam Fox, Rasmus Dahlin, Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar and Erik Karlsson.
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Well…I got into this pretty thoroughly last week in the Ramblings, check it out here.
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Also in the Ramblings I linked to above, I dove in pretty deep in the East and which teams should miss. Because Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Ottawa are a-knockin'. It's hard to imagine Washington not only getting back into the playoffs, but doing so over those three teams. With a healthy Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlsson and Max Pacioretty – I still can't see it. Yes, they're a better team, but a lot of teams in the East improved a lot more.
I'm not big on LA's goaltending either, but the West isn't nearly as tough to grab a playoff spot as the East, so the Kings are probably safe.
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You really got me with the non-goaltending caveat, but here are some thoughts:
Erik Karlsson vs. Kris Letang at even strength. The Penguins are going to go with a five-man unit at even strength. Who gets Sidney Crosby and who gets Evgeni Malkin? If Karlsson gets Malkin, then this would boost Malkin a lot more than if he had Letang there. I think this battle has a huge impact on Malkin's potential output.
I'm also looking at the situation up the middle for Columbus. You have Boone Jenner, who is more of a checker and has limited upside. You have Jack Roslovic, who has been under-achieving so far in his career, other than in brief spurts. And you have Adam Fantilli, who easily has the highest upside of the three and is also NHL-ready. With Patrik Laine healthy, Kirill Marchenko having emerged and Kent Johnson taking another step, a spot in the top six at center is crucial. Cracking that top six and holding onto the spot could mean a difference of 20 points. Especially with the huge upgrade the Blue Jackets added in terms of mobility on the blue line.
And of course, the much talked about battle to be the wingers on the first line in Chicago. Yes, Taylor Hall gets first dibs, so that part won't be much of a battle (until he loses the spot – and don't think he won't, as his best days are behind him and he was unable to click with Jack Eichel back when he was with Buffalo). Taylor Raddysh, Lukas Reichel, Andreas Athanasiou and Philipp Kurashev are all solid candidates to start in that spot alongside Connor Bedard. The winner could see another 20 points padded into his stats this year.
Honorable mention: Tony DeAngelo vs. Brent Burns for PP time on Carolina.
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I believe he will. In the Fantasy Hockey Guide I have his odds set at 80% right now, projecting for 79 games.
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Rosterable. When healthy. But flip a coin as to whether or not that happens.
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See you next Monday.
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