Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. There are always a few items in my fantasy guide that raise an eyebrow or two. I’ll be making an appearance on this week’s Keeping Karlsson podcast to discuss some of them. But I also thought I would throw it out there on Twitter/X. I’m an open book – if you see a projection that you feel is a little wonky, let me walk you through my thought process and then you can decide if you agree with it.

This is also a good opportunity to clarify something: a projection is not always cut and dried. Sometimes I look at a player and think that if ‘this’ happens and ‘that’ happens, then the formula spits out 80 points. But if those two things don’t happen, he’s 50 points (as a pretend example). And while other publications will just solve the problem and call it 65 points, I have a comfort level that I have in place in which I will give him one or the other based on how strongly I believe in that situation. This can lead to my putting my neck out there at times. But I do go over thought process in the Guide as best I can, and also have charts in place that offer up percentages for that comfort level. (sept4)

2. Anyway, let’s get to some of the player projections that you are wondering about.

Readers @MaximeMurray and @tayzer82 asked about my Connor Bedard projection. Said the latter: Hmmm…the only one I saw that stuck out was Bedard at 91 pts when nobody else is over 55…not sure how that happens. 

So…yeah. There’s the matter of Connor Bedard. I guess he’s an important player in fantasy? I do find it hard to believe that ‘nobody else’ had him projected for more than 55 points, but I also admit that I was pretty aggressive with Bedard’s projection. I’ve been pretty vocal about my feelings on Bedard, strongly believing that he’ll be, if not better than Connor McDavid, then certainly equal. Well…if I feel that way, then shouldn’t I project a similar rookie season? McDavid had 48 points in 45 games as a rookie, getting better as the season went on. That’s an 87-point pace. In 2015-16, when McDavid was a rookie, scoring was at 5.34 goals per game. In 2022-23 it was 6.29 – and I still think there’s another notch upwards still to come. If Bedard is generational, and I think he is, then 90+ points is not only attainable, but likely (if he stays healthy). A 55-point projection by other prognosticators is astonishingly low.

You may argue that McDavid had Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl, Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on his squad. And I agree, Bedard does have a weaker team around him. But the reality is, that Edmonton team was also pretty weak. Draisaitl had nine career points prior to that season, and is that any different than Lukas Reichel having 16 career points prior to this season? McDavid didn’t have a stud like Seth Jones, either. Ironically, Bedard has Hall on his team as well, albeit as a shadow of his former self. (sept4)

3. Reader @MrDavidca said: Foerster at 54 ? Thanks DD!

I’ll admit that this one is probably the one I’m the least comfortable with. If he makes the Flyers (I have it as 85% that he will), then he’ll do it because he’s putting up the points. That being said, the total I gave him was aggressive, and it came down to using the right mix of NHL production (in limited games) and AHL production in my formula. I spent a good twenty minutes Sunday evening reviewing my numbers and reflecting on my comfort level here. I believe in Foerster as a prospect who will produce, but on a team like the Flyers I think such a player will have a hard time making it to 50. Putting more emphasis on his AHL production last year and replacing that variable accordingly, I have adjusted his projection to 43 points. Still a strong number, but more in line with a ‘Wyatt Johnston‘ kind of season instead of a ‘Matty Beniers‘ kind of season.

This adjusted projection is now reflected in the latest update. (sept4)

Follow the link for more…

4. This week, my Ramblings have been spent going over my first run of point projections for forwards. The edition on Tuesday was looking at certain groups of players while Thursday's covered some players whose projection surprised me. Today (Friday) we are going to look at players that look to be in line for big improvements or declines.

The usual caveats apply: this is just my first iteration of projections so things will change over the next five weeks, all starting players are assumed to play 82 games, and we are not separating left/right wings and centers. Not yet, at least. Let’s check out Aleksander Barkov, Jason Robertson and Trevor Zegras.

Aleksander Barkov (Last Year: 78 points in 68 games)
Projection: 104.66

This might seem really high, given his career-best mark is 96 points in 2018-19 and that was his only 90-point season. At the same time, he paced for 108 points/82 games in 2021-22, so it isn’t an absurd number.

My projections think Barkov is set to greatly improve on the 55 even-strength points he paced for last season; he finished with 46 in 68 games while these projections have him around 66 in 82 games. In 2022-23, Barkov managed a point on just 65.7% of Florida goals scored with him on the ice at even strength. His prior two seasons averaged 76.6% and if he had done that in 2022-23, he would have paced for 65 even-strength points. In other words, just being more involved in Florida’s scoring – to rates in line with what he had done in recent seasons – should give him a big boost at even strength. If he can play a full season, he can threaten 100 points, though the health of the blue line could change things over the next month. (sept8)

5. Jason Robertson
Projection: 93.39

This projected point total would cut about 16 points from what he managed last season but it’s nothing to do with him, really. It is kind of a death by 1000 cuts; a small pullback in his line’s shooting percentage at even strength, a small decline in EVTOI per game because of Dallas’s forward depth, a handful fewer points on the power play, and so on. Losing 3-4 points because of a few different reasons adds up to the projection given above.

I’ll be honest here and say that if Robertson plays 82 games, I believe he’ll post another 100-point season. Even if Joe Pavelski‘s age starts catching up with him, there are replacements like Matt Duchene and Wyatt Johnston ready to step in. Maybe Robertson ends up in the 98-104 range instead of nearly 110, but I really do feel this projection is underrating him. We will see where things stand when more adjustments are made. (sept8)

6. Trevor Zegras
Projection: 63.35

Like Huberdeau, Zegras’s projection is all about his role on the team. Not that there is a question of him being the team’s top center, but rather whom he gets to play with. Last season, through New Year’s, Zegras played about two-thirds of his even strength time with Troy Terry. After New Year’s, that number cratered to around 22%. Terry missed a couple weeks but even with him in the lineup, it was under 30% in shared EVTOI.

Over the last two years, Anaheim scored about 19% more often when Zegras was on the ice with Terry than without him, and the only additions made up front are depth players/prospects and Alex Killorn. If new coach Greg Cronin keeps them apart, it’ll help neither in the fantasy game.

If we can get some sort of confirmation early in training camp that Terry and Zegras will be on a line together, it would be a great sign for both their fantasy values, changing both their projections for the better. The difference could be a Travis Konecny-like point-per-game season or a Vincent Trocheck-like 65-point effort. Considering this projection isn't far off his first two seasons, it tells me just how far Anaheim still has to go as a franchise. (sept8)

Follow the link for more improvements and declines…

7. Below are a couple from Thursday, Kirill Kaprizov and David Pastrnak. They are simply attackers that pique my fantasy interest, for one reason or another, or that carry a projection that surprised me.

Kirill Kaprizov
Projection: 94.31

Considering he’s paced for 101 points/82 games over the last two seasons, it struck me as weird that Kaprizov’s projection wasn’t flirting with 100 points. Digging in further, the projections don’t have a lot of faith in the Minnesota power play; he is projected for a shade over 33 PPPs, which is a drop from last season when he averaged nearly one PPP every two games (32 in 67, or 39 in a full season).

It should be mentioned that Kaprizov started very hot last season with 17 PPPs in his first 26 games. If he can manage even 80% of that output for a full year, he’ll soar past 100 points. The issue is he had just 15 over his final 41 games, which wouldn’t leave us far from his 2023-24 projection in an 82-game campaign. If he landed close to 40 PPPs in the coming year, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise, but there are a lot of Wild question marks: Marco Rossi‘s ability to finally break through at the NHL, Joel Eriksson Ek‘s health, and Mats Zuccarello turning 36 years old a week ago. They don’t know which defenseman is running the power play, they don’t know who their top center is, and they don’t know if Zucc – who saw a big production drop last year – is rapidly declining. (In fairness to Zuccarello, there were percentages far out of line with recent seasons and if those normalize, he’ll be fine. There are still concerns with his playmaking taking a dive, according to AllThreeZones tracking, but one down year does not make a pattern.)  Kaprizov to even be projected near the top-12 producers in this kind of environment speaks to the level of talent he has.

With the winger’s solid hit rates and sky-high shot rates, he’s still a borderline first round, sure-fire second round pick in fantasy drafts. This is just to say that out of some options in his ADP range – Jack Hughes, Brady Tkachuk – he has a bit of uncertainty around him. (sept7)

8. David Pastrnak
Projection: 89.92

This really surprised me, even with the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. Pasta just had a 61-goal, 113-point season and was runner-up for the Hart Trophy. Then I looked at his prior two seasons where he averaged 41 goals and 44 assists/82 games, and it made a bit of sense.

At the risk of doing math in an article, there needs to be some math highlighted here:

• Over the last three seasons, when Pastrnak was on the ice at 5-on-5 without either Bergeron or Krejci, the team scored 56 goals in 968:49. If he maintains that pace in 2023-24, and skates 1200 minutes, he’ll be on for a nice 69 goals. If he gets a point on 75% of those goals, it’ll mean 52 points. Right away we’re down nine points from 2022-23.  
• Over the last three seasons, when Pastrnak was on the ice for the power play without Bergeron, the team scored 13 goals in 134:25 of PPTOI. At that goal rate, in a season where he gets 300 PP minutes, that is 29 PPPs. That shaves another eight points off the total and now we’re well below 100.

In short, the projections think that without Bergeron and Krejci, Pastrnak will be closer to his 2021-22 production – 82-game paces of 46 goals and 39 assists – than to 2022-23.

Last season, I was very wrong about Boston’s injuries, and it looks like they might make me look stupid two years in a row. All the same, Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle have a lot of heavy lifting ahead of them. (sept7)

Follow the link for more surprises…

9. And here are a couple of entries from Tuesday's Ramblings, as I was looking at certain groups of players:

The Top Five

Projections spit out five players that should crack the 110-point mark and there may not be huge surprises, but it does highlight what is anticipated from young Jack Hughes:

– Connor McDavid: 143.18 (points)
– Leon Draisaitl: 126.58
– Nathan MacKinnon: 120.84
– Nikita Kucherov: 118.78
– Jack Hughes: 112.62

Hughes paced for 104 points/82 games a year ago, is turning 22 years old, has shown all-world offensive skill already, and is on a high-end offensive team. Adding eight points really does not seem far-fetched in a full campaign.

Nathan MacKinnon was third in points/game last season and only trailed Leon Draisaitl because of Edmonton’s historic power play. Injuries have been cropping up for a few years now and Colorado’s star is coming off a season where he played over 22 minutes a night. The concerns are real but if Connor McDavid somehow doesn’t end up the top player in fantasy, MacKinnon is one of the few who can take the top spot. (sept5)

10. The 90-Plus Performers

There are over 16 forwards projected for somewhere between 90-110 points but most of that group isn’t worth discussing. There is a group of three projected between 91-93 points that I do want to discuss:

– Johnny Gaudreau: 92.84 (points)
– Robert Thomas: 92.19
– Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 91.74

Johnny Gaudreau is fascinating. We all remember his 115-point season so that makes his 74 points in 2022-23 a comparative disappointment. He only posted 0.83 and 0.88 points per game from 2019-2021, so it’s not as if he’s a slam-dunk 90-point guy. All the same, had he shot 13.2% (his three-year average from 2019-22) instead of 9.5%, he adds eight goals, pushes 30 in a full year, and is a point-per-game guy. Projections are expecting much better even-strength production with an improving (and healthy) team around him and that puts 90 points back on the menu.

It was a step back for Robert Thomas in 2022-23 as he lost 15 even-strength assists when compared to 2021-22, even with 60 more minutes played. Over his first four seasons, Thomas assisted on 53.2% of the goals St. Louis scored with him on the ice at even strength, a number that fell to 42.3% in 2022-23. If that rate had been normal, he’s just shy of a point-per-game player. Rebounds at even strength, and a small PP improvement, have him as a 90-point guy.

Finally, we get to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He was one of the big fantasy surprises of 2022-23 as the 29-year-old forward, who had zero 30-goal or 70-point seasons prior, posted 37 goals and 104 points. His surge was largely on the back of that same historic power play and while he should get his role back, just small normalizations at even strength and on the PP would cost him 10-plus points. He could still produce at a high level and not get back to 100 points. (sept5)

Follow the link for more groups…

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11. More summer hockey reading for you, our Offseason Fantasy Grades team articles. You will be able to find the links to all of them here. Check them out! 

12. Morgan Frost was extended for two years by the Philadelphia Flyers with those seasons carrying an average annual value of $2.1M. Frost, who turned 24 years old in May, had easily his best season in 2022-23 by playing 81 of 82 games, tallying 19 goals and 46 points. He seemed to be one of the young players that coach John Tortorella started to favour as the campaign wore on. There is still a lot more to prove at the NHL level and he’ll have a couple years to do it, but this is all a good start for him. (sept7)

13. For a bigger contract than Frost's, defenseman Jake Sanderson got eight years from Ottawa with each of those seasons having an AAV just over $8M. In his first season, Sanderson had 32 points in 77 games, skating nearly 22 minutes a night. This is a sizable contract for a player with fewer than 80 career NHL games, but he did look phenomenal in those 77 games. The 21-year-old still has a year left on his entry-level deal so this won’t kick in until 2024-25.

Being a rookie defenseman on a team with Thomas Chabot that also traded for Jakob Chychrun made it easy to overlook just how impactful he was. He performed extremely well in his own end and seemed to have no problem transitioning the puck from defense to offense. Having those traits as a 20-year-old speaks volumes about what’s to come. Whether he’s worth that in a salary cap league come one year’s time is another matter given that Chabot is extended long-term while Chychrun is signed through 2024-25. Sanderson could very well end up one of those players that is much more impactful in reality than in fantasy hockey. (sept7)

14. With a busy weekend rolling into a busy start to the week, I took to Twitter and some of my fantasy leagues for some Ramblings topics. For some reason, sometimes it’s easier to talk about topics that weren’t your own questions. Probably something about challenging your preconceived notions and assumptions. It’s a good thing to do every once in a while, and helping answer questions for others is really how you learn the most anyways, so questions are always welcome.

Reader@lanky_frankasked: Besides the big 5 (Bedard, Fantilli, Michkov, Carlsson and Smith), top 5 2023 draft pick by multi cat fantasy upside and 5 dark horses (lesser known names) from same draft. If you have space D's ranked by fantasy upside. Thanks Alex

Let’s start with the next set of picks after the top-five. I’m going to split it into forwards and defensemen, because the value between the two positions really varies depending on your league, what kind of timeline the prospects should have, and a whole bunch of other factors.

Forwards:
Zach Benson
Ryan Leonard
Dalibor Dvorsky
Oliver Moore
Matthew Wood

On the forward side, Leonard has the bigger banger upside, but Benson is definitely the highest scoring upside outside of the top-five. Dvorksy and Moore have higher offensive ceilings and some ability to pad various stats too. Wood shoots a ton, and may not hit or take penalties at a prodigious rate, but the scoring and shot volume can make up for it and tends to be move valuable to find anyways. A couple of them could hit in 2024-25, but I doubt any of them play more than a handful of games this season.

15. Defensemen:
Dmitri Simashev
David Reinbacher
Axel Sandin Pellikka
Mikhail Gulyayev
Tom Willander

On defense, if Simashev’s offense comes through, then there is a ton of upside in just about every category. Reinbacher is a much safer pick, and will likely outpoint Simashev while playing a lot of minutes. Possibly not a stack of hits, but the minutes will lend themselves to volume. ASP and Gulyayev are the next two highest offensive ceilings, though you will probably give up some of the banger categories. (sept6)

16. Question from one of my league mates:

“Who will be the best value moving forward (as cap rises). Like, who’s deal looks “ok” this year but will be the best bargain in 2-3 years from now? To simplify it, who is on the next “Nathan MacKinnon” contract? Is it Jack Hughes?”

Jack Hughes is definitely one of the first ones that comes to mind. The big difference over the next number of years compared to 5-10 years ago is that the cap is supposed to be rising a lot faster now (the one benefit of inflation). As a result of this, any contracts that are signed now for the full seven or eight-year term, are the ones we want to be looking at. Hughes is going to be scoring over a 100-point-pace every year, and in a few years the $8 million price tag might not just be for the top two forwards.

If not Hughes, then it has to be someone cheaper. Tage Thompson would be next on the list, with his $7.1 million cap hit. He’s a volume shooter like Hughes, but he does also add hits and PIMs. The scoring rates are also fairly close, and both are on two of the best up-and-coming teams. Either one is going to be an excellent option similar to McDavid the last number of years.

The other name that I thought of was Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He just scored 100 points, and is signed to a $5.125 million deal for another six years. Already cheaper than MacKinnon’s bargain deal was, and if he can keep up anywhere in the 80- to 100-point range, then it’s going to be in contention for the best deals around.

Tim Stutzle, Clayton Keller, and Matthew Boldy would be some other HMs to note. (sept6)

17. Reader @Kingchev93 asked: Dynasty league, in win now mode. Keep two of the three, Raymond, Dobson, Burns. D are a premium asset in this league.

I don’t own any of the three players in any of my leagues, which always makes this kind of thing fun to look into.

The first thing that jumps out is the positional and the age discrepancy. Between those two, Noah Dobson stands out as the best option of the three. The Isles can’t be worse offensively, and if Mat Baral can get back to his 90-point days playing on Bo Horvat‘s wing, then there is a lot of upside there (on top of some great peripherals).

Brent Burns is going to be a great asset again this year, and could/should be the best of the three for the 2023-24 season, quarter-backing the Canes’ top power play again. Defensemen that can score 60-points aren’t easy to come by, especially when they bring something like Burns’ shot volume too. He is starting to show some signs of age as I got into earlier in the summer, but next year won’t be too much of an issue.

Lucas Raymond is the wildcard of the bunch. His production will really come down to whether he is playing with Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat, or if he gets shuffled down the lineup again. Pacing for 60-points by the mid-way point last year, Raymod cooled significantly and only finished with 45 in 74 games. He’s half-a-season away from his breakout threshold though, so the interesting play may be to let Raymond go, take the season of production of Burns, and then try to re-acquire Raymond around Christmas. Or, he’s easier to re-draft later than Burns will go.

It will come down to the age and position that you feel most comfortable with, but generally I think keeping Burns sounds like the right call here – or at least the choice I would make. (sept6)

18. And a small group of quick-hits from another of my other league mates:

“What would a DeBrincat/Kane reunion look like in Detroit?”

I’m not sure a Patrick Kane and Detroit match makes a ton of sense, but if it does happen, then having them centered by speedster Dylan Larkin would be a lot of fun. Possibly all of them finishing in the 90-point range. It sounds like Kane is on track to be ready for sometime in the fall. The Red Wings are already loaded at forward though, so it would probably require a trade before Kane could realistically be brought in, and it would really hurt multiple players such as Daniel Sprong, David Perron, and Lucas Raymond.

19. “Can a healthy Demko with upgrades at D finally put a Vezina season together?”

Assuming Thatcher Demko can stay healthy, he could put together a solid season. I don’t think the team in front of him is going to be able to support him quite enough for him to pass all of Ilya Sorokin, Jake Oettinger, Igor Shesterkin, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and others. He could finish as a top-five goalie, maybe even top three, but I don’t see a version of the 2023-24 season where Demko wins the Vezina.

20. “Does MacKenzie Blackwood save his career in SJ?”

I am not a believer in Blackwood, and San Jose has the worst defense core in the entire league. Maybe including two-thirds of the AHL rosters. He is probably goalie #60 or later on my fantasy radar at this point.

21. “Who has the better fantasy roster — Ottawa or Buffalo? Compare them by F, D, G groups.”

This coming year, I think Ottawa are going to be the better group of forwards. Lining up Stutzle vs Thompson, then Claude Giroux, Josh Norris, and Brady Tkachuk against Alex Tuch, Jeff Skinner, and Dylan Cozens is fairly even.

They’re also deeper on defense, and they have three viable options that could be NHL starters this year instead of just the waivers-exempt Devon Levi for Buffalo. What Buffalo has going for them is Rasmus Dahlin, who Rick Roos talked about in last week’s Goldipucks column. Dahlin is head-and-shoulders above anyone who Ottawa has on defense, and the trio of Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson, and Jakub Chychrun will all be leaching each other’s opportunities. (sept6)

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Have a good week, folks!

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