Eastern Edge: Draft Value for Jake Guentzal and Joonas Korpisalo

Brennan Des

2023-09-12

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss why Jake Guentzel and Joonas Korpisalo are players you want on your fantasy team this year.

Jake Guentzel

Guentzel has hovered around a 40-goal, point-per-game pace in each of the last five years but based on where he's going in fantasy drafts right now, I don't think that past production is being respected. Summing across the past five seasons, he ranks 26th in points and 14th in goals, yet he's being drafted 60th overall in the average Yahoo league. It seems Guentzel's fantasy stock has fallen because he underwent ankle surgery early last month. Officially, he's set to be re-evaluated in late October, approximately five games into the season. I guess that term 're-evaluated' has some fantasy managers concerned – because it's not a concrete return date, and it leaves the door open for Guentzel to miss even more time. With that being said, GM Kyle Dubas seems optimistic Guentzel will return after that five-game absence, so I'm happy to appraise Guentzel's fantasy stock based on that optimism –  as Dubas is undoubtedly more informed than the rest of us. I understand concerns about an extended absence, or sub-par play immediately after returning, but I don't think those concerns are substantial enough to lower Guentzel's value to this extent. The way I see it, his perceived fantasy value has fallen much further than his actual fantasy value, creating an opportunity for you to get a great deal if you snag him outside of the top-50. He's an elite player in his own right, but exposure to a star-studded cast in Pittsburgh – which now features Erik Karlsson – certainly helps.

Joonas Korpisalo

There is a lack of consistency among goaltenders that makes it difficult to justify using high draft picks on big names. Even some of the most reliable goalies are prone to single season struggles. Sure, Andrei Vasilevskiy put up a good number of wins last year, but considering he was drafted in the first or second round of most fantasy leagues, his 2.65 GAA and .915 save percentage was honestly pretty underwhelming. The same can be said for Igor Shesterkin, who went early in most fantasy drafts last year, following an outstanding 21-22 campaign. Although he won a lot of games, he was bound to fall short of lofty expectations, and ended up posting a rather pedestrian 2.48 GAA and .916 save percentage.

When selecting your first-string fantasy netminder, there are a few boxes you want to check. In my opinion, the most important factor is the quality of the team in front of said netminder. There are elite individuals who shine behind average teams, but team quality is more reliable and easier to project than the performance of one individual. Even the best goaltenders will put up lackluster numbers behind a defense that gives up lots of high danger opportunities. Not only does a good team lead a goalie to more wins, but they also make it easier to post a strong GAA and SV%. Another factor to consider is volume of opportunity. You want a starter that'll see lots of action, because the more they play, the more of an impact they can have on your fantasy matchups.

To get a goaltender that sees a high volume of starts, possesses individual talent, and plays behind a strong team, you have to pay top dollar.  The thing is, at such a high price, there isn't much room for them to outperform expectations and provide excess value. This creates a situation where most goalies at the top of draft lists end up disappointing fantasy managers. Since skater performances tend to be more consistent, I think it makes sense to use high draft picks on skaters, who are more likely to meet or exceed expectations. I personally wait until mid/late rounds to take goalies, because with lower costs, there's actually room for them to outperform expectations.

📢 advertisement:

My endorsement of Korpisalo is based on two things: his contract and the quality of the team in front of him. Korpisalo signed a five-year deal with the Senators this offseason, making him the team's highest paid goalie. In order to get a solid return on that investment, Ottawa is likely to give Korpisalo a starting role this season. There's certainly some risk involved as (1) he hasn't started more than 39 games in a single season and (2) his career numbers aren't great. However, I'm a big believer in the Sens this year. As long as Korpisalo stays healthy, his contract will give him a decent number of starts. The team in front of him is capable of playing strong defense to support his GAA and SV%, but also strong offense to help him tally a good number of wins. Ottawa looked good last year, and I think they're ready to take a step forward this season. In my eyes, their top-six forwards and top-four defenseman are both above league average. The Sens will benefit from a healthy Josh Norris, who was sidelined much of last year with a shoulder injury, and a full year with Jakob Chychrun, who only suited up for 12 games with the team last season.

I think we'll see other 'average goaltenders on good teams' get drafted ahead of Korpisalo, simply because the Senators haven't fully graduated to 'good team' status just yet. They're still in the final stages of their upswing, which means you can probably get a discounted rate on Korpisalo now, before the team fully takes off.

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Jun 04 - 20:06 EDM vs FLA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
MARCO ROSSI MIN
QUINTON BYFIELD L.A
MITCH MARNER TOR
MAVRIK BOURQUE DAL
KYLE PALMIERI NYI

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
ALEXANDAR GEORGIEV S.J
YAROSLAV ASKAROV S.J
SCOTT WEDGEWOOD COL
JAKE OETTINGER DAL
ILYA NABOKOV COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency ARI Players
25.8 NICK SCHMALTZ ALEXANDER KERFOOT CLAYTON KELLER
17.5 DYLAN GUENTHER LAWSON CROUSE LOGAN COOLEY
17.2 AKU RATY JACK MCBAIN MATIAS MACCELLI

DobberHockey Podcasts

Fantasy Hockey Life: Pittsburgh Penguins with Josh Yohe

Josh Yohe is here to report on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Jesse and Victor interview Josh about returning pros Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Evgeni Malkin, Tommy Novak, Rutger McGroarty, Ville Koivunen, Erik Karlsson, Matt Grzelcyk, Kris Letang, Owen Pickering, Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic. In Cat’s Instincts, Cat Silverman of InGoal mag breaks down […]

Fantasy Hockey Life: Seattle Kraken with RJ Eskanos

RJ Eskanos of Emerald City Hockey is here to report on the Seattle Kraken. Jesse and Victor interview RJ about returning pros Jared McCann, Chandler Stephenson, Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, Kaapo Kakko, Shane Wright, Matty Beniers, Andre Burakovsky, Eeli Tolvanen, Jani Nyman, Vince Dunn, Brandon Montour, Ryker Evans, Joey Daccord, and Philipp Grubauer. In Cat’s […]

Keeping Karlsson: KK Leagues Report – 2025 Champs!

Derrick talks to the big winners of the various Keeping Karlsson leagues from this past season. He’s first joined by the new KKUPFL Ultimate Champion Ian and the reigning fast-track winner Alec. Then Derrick is joined by the year 1 KK Dynasty League champions Ian (different Ian), Saqib, and Brett, aka the “Good ol’ Ottawa Boys”.

Fantasy Hockey Life: Anaheim Ducks with Derek Lee

Derek Lee of the Hockey News is here to report on the Anaheim Ducks. Jesse and Victor interview him about returning pros Troy Terry, Mason McTavish, Trevor Zegras, Frank Vatrano, Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Sam Colangelo, Jackson LaCombe, Olen Zellweger, Pavel Mintyukov, Radko Gudas, Jacob Trouba, Lukas Dostal, and John Gibson. In Cat’s Instincts, Cat […]

Fantasy Hockey Life: Fluto Shinzawa Boston Bruins Preview

Fluto Shinzawa of the New York Times joins the show to break down the Boston Bruins. Jesse and Victor ask him about David Pastrnak, Morgan Geekie, Pavel Zacha, Elias Lindholm, Casey Mittelstadt, Matthew Poitras, Fraser Minten, Charlie McAvoy, Mason Lohrei, Hampus Lindholm, Jeremy Swayman, and Joonas Korpisalo. Cat’s instincts covers prospect goalies Brandon Bussi and […]

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: