In 2025-26, it was exceedingly difficult to find success in the Atlantic Division as they had four 100-point teams, which was as many as the other three divisions combined. Each team also posted at least a .500 points percentage against the Western Conference, the only division where each team was at least .500 against the opposing conference. With the Florida Panthers healthy and the Toronto Maple Leafs re-tooled, it looks like the Atlantic will be a beast of a division once again.

1 – Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning add a healthy Victor Hedman, to a team that boasted the 4^th best offense and the 3rd best defense last year. This top five power play usually hits at 25% or more, but fell to an uncharacteristic 17^th in the league (20.7%). Combined with the fact that Tampa Bay led the league in penalties drawn per 60, there is room for the offense to augment on the 290 goals scored just based on an improved number of power paly goals. On paper, the right-handed defenseman swap from Darren Raddysh to John Carlson, and the backup goalie change from Jonas Johansson to Dennis Hildeby are lateral moves that could offer slight improvements. They missed advancing to the second round on a coin flip Game 7 overtime, where they were goalie'd by Jakub Dobes. They reclaim the top spot in the Atlantic by season's end.

2 – Ottawa Senators

Every year there is a team that outshines expectations and this year that is the Ottawa Senators. Incoming William Eklund led the Sharks with a 57% on ice shot attempt percentage (Corsi). He replaces outgoing Brady Tkachuk who led the Senators with a 65% on ice shot attempt percentage (Corsi). Remember we are comparing a top five Corsi team in the Senators with a bottom five Corsi team in the San Jose Sharks. The Senators are a team that gets possession of the puck as evidenced by their 54.51% faceoff win percentage (second in the league), and prevents dangerous scoring chances, giving up the fewest high-danger shots against (225) league-wide. The Senators were tanked by the fourth-worst save percentage (0.877%) in the league. Had Ottawa received a league average 0.896%, they would have prevented an astounding 37 goals against. Adding 37 to their goal differential would have placed them second in the entire league. Moreover, Linus Ullmark is capable of much better than league average. His career average is 0.914%, and in the ten seasons prior to last year, Ullmark has always been between 0.905% and 0.938%. He finished strong in the playoffs (0.931%) despite the Sens being swept by the Hurricanes. During the regular season, only Carolina and Colorado had a better scored adjusted shot attempt percentage than the Senators. The loss of Brady Tkachuk won't hurt them as much as everyone is supposing.

3 – Florida Panthers

Not only did were the Panthers negatively affected by massive injury issues, but they also suffered from bad puck luck: Florida had the lowest PDO in the Atlantic (98.24). New addition Brady Tkachuk had his own set of luck issues on the Senators: His shooting percentage at 5v4 in 2024-25 was 14.1%, and it fell to 8.5% last year, resulting in his power play goals output decreasing from 14 to just five; single digit shooting percentage on the power play is only acceptable for defenseman. Brady's 16:58 of time on ice should also increase on Florida where the top wingers get 19-20 minutes per game. PP1 stalwarts like Matthew Tkachuk, Seth Jones, Sam Reinhart, and Aleksander Barkov all missed significant time last year. The Panthers also received putrid goaltending (0.876%), but they got 16 months younger in nets with Jacob Markstrom replacing Sergei Bobrovsky. Although Markstrom is a career 0.906% goalie, he hasn't been as good lately, allowing 548 goals on 5242 shots over the last four seasons combined (0.895%). Florida returns to its winning ways and finishes near the top of the Atlantic.

4 – Montreal Canadiens

Only in the best division in hockey do you see the Atlantic representative in the final four relegated to a fourth-place finish. The future is bright for this young team that has locked down its core on team-friendly contracts, even if there is likely a transaction or two in the cards before the season begins that could affect this prediction. The Canadiens were a bottom ten team in shot attempt percentage, meaning they relied on effective shooting rather than tilting the ice with shots. That is not necessarily a recipe for success. Montreal finished with the 5^th highest PDO (101.94) and the 2^nd highest shooting percentage (12.93%). Those numbers should regress to the norm, meaning their goal scoring will come down. In terms of goaltending, this team was middle of the pack, but those numbers were dragged down by the play of Samuel Montembeault (0.872%). Jakub Dobes (0.901%) and Jacob Fowler (0.908%) will likely take the reigns this season. Fowler is waiver exempt but management wants to give him NHL experience, so the goalie rotation is still up in the air if a trade for Montembeault cannot be found.

5 – Buffalo Sabres

The Atlantic Division winner getting no respect. The Sabres had a significant over-performance in both their goaltending and their scoring, as evidenced by their 102.2 PDO (2nd in the league). This was on the back of the 5^th highest shooting percentage, and the 3^rd best save percentage. These numbers are unlikely to repeat. The Sabres were the worst faceoff team (45.9%) in the league and wrapped up the campaign with the highest goals for above expected (+24.95). The roster turnover doesn't have big implications – Buffalo lost Alex Tuch, but there are a lot of young forwards like Josh Doan, Zach Benson, Jiri Kulich, Jack Quinn, Noah Ostlund, and Konsta Helenius that can step up to fill his skates. Likewise on defense Bowen Byram's minutes can be chewed up by Owen Power, Louis Crevier, and Olen Zellweger. Michael Kesselring, and Devon Levi departed as well but both played very marginal roles in 2025-26. The Sabres will be in a tight race for the playoffs, after winning the division last year.

6 – Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs had a season to forget. Auston Matthews and William Nylander missed chunks of the season. After six seasons of point per game numbers between 1.14 and 1.45, Matthews fell to 0.88. His shooting percentage and IPP were below his usual rates. Nylander had the best points per game of his career (1.22), which should decrease next season due to an elevated shooting percentage: both personal (19.2%) and team 5v5 (13.5%). Joseph Woll (0.899%) and Anthony Stolarz (0.893%) had injury issues as well, and when they did play, were mediocre. The Leafs were a mess under Craig Berube, only able to muster 246 high danger shots for, which was 28^th in the league. Berube is gone, and the team is revamped. Bobrovksy rejoins his teammate Stolarz to make up the battery in nets, Raddysh is added as the point shooter on the power play, and Gavin McKenna is selected with the now infamous and cringe-worthy: ''Mr. McKenna, we would like to draft you to the Toronto Maple Leafs.'' The Leafs were a middle of the pack offensive team, but where they will need to make improvements is on defense where they finished last in the conference with 299 goals against.

7 – Boston Bruins

The Bruins got exceptional goaltending with Jeremy Swayman providing a +28.8 GSAx (2^nd in the league). Joonas Korpisalo was traded away, so Michael DiPietro is locked in as the backup. Like Buffalo, Boston had a high goals for above expected (+20.43) meaning they overperformed on offense as well. The Bruins were 3^rd in the league in PDO (101.95) and 6^th in shooting percentage (12.09%), so there is regression looming. The Casey Mittelstadt–Viktor Arvidsson–Pavel Zacha line benefitted the most from these underlying stats – more on that in this article.

Coach Marco Sturm had an interview in the Boston Herald, where he mentioned that he sees James Hagens as a long-term center, but will start as a winger. Hagens and Fraser Minten are both waiver exempt, so it is not a guarantee they start with the Bruins, as there is a bit of a numbers crunch at forward. Sturm did emphasize a meritocracy where the play will dictate opportunity even for younger players. The coach wasn't sure who will center the top line. Elias Lindholm, Marat Khusnutdinov, Zacha, and Minten are all options, but training camp will help determine that. Another area where the Bruins will need to improve is staying out of the penalty box. They had the second highest share of penalties taken (52.48%). They were fortunate to get in the playoffs last year in a wildcard spot, that luck has run out and they will be on the outside looking in.

8 – Detroit Red Wings

Detroit's 241 goals was the weakest in the Atlantic division. To make matters worse, the Red Wings lost Patrick Kane and will likely lose Dylan Larkin. They did suffer from some negative puck luck ranking 26^th in the league in shooting percentage (10.32%). In the goal differential above expected department, the Red wings were -19.07, with most of that coming from a depressed offense. No one knows what to expect from John Gibson who had a save percentage of 0.865% in October-November, 0.925% in January-February, and 0.880% in April. Viktor Arvidsson arrives to help on offense, but he won't be as good as last year where inflated percentages raised his 5v5 points per 60 to 3.03 – third in the league behind Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon. Assets will come back in the Larkin trade, so that needs to be factored in before condemning them to a last place Atlantic finish. One category that is in abundance on this team, is shots blocked, where the Red Wings led the league (1437).

Player data from Frozen Tools. Advanced stats from Money Puck.

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