Ramblings: Zuccarello, Foligno Sign; Martin to Columbus; More Fantasy Stockwatch (Sept 30)

Ian Gooding

2023-09-30

The Minnesota Wild extended two of their notable forwards on Friday.

First, Mats Zuccarello agreed to a two-year extension with a cap hit of $4.125 million. His five-year contract worth $6 million is set to expire after this season. Zuccarello is now 36 years old, which explains why his pay decreases in spite of some career seasons with the Wild.

I was not a big fan of Zuccarello's contract when he first signed it, as he was on a modest 47-point pace during his first season with the Wild. Then Kirill Kaprizov burst onto the scene in 2020-21, which had a major impact on Zuccarello's numbers. Playing mainly on Kaprizov's line, Zuccarello has been a 0.8 PTS/GP player for three consecutive seasons, including recording a career-high 79 points in 70 games in 2021-22. Zuccarello should continue to produce at about a 70-point pace as long as he's on Kaprizov's line, but downgrade him if Kaprizov is injured or if Dean Evason somehow decides to separate them.

Later in the day, the Wild announced that Marcus Foligno has signed a four-year extension with a cap hit of $4 million. That's a raise for Foligno, who is earning $3.1 million this season. Although his scoring was down last season (21 PTS in 65 GP), Foligno has carved out a role as a power forward for the Wild. His 23 goals and 42 points in 2021-22 were riding the wave of a 23.5 SH%, so a 30-point campaign seems like a more reasonable expectation. Foligno has much higher value in bangers leagues, as he has averaged over 100 PIM and over 200 Hits over the past two seasons.

Only one player was claimed off waivers on Friday, and it was not Ty Smith. Spencer Martin was claimed by Columbus after Vancouver waived him. Tampa Bay probably could have used him more than anyone else after the Andrei Vasilevskiy injury, but the Blue Jackets would have had higher waiver priority based on last year's standings.

Martin is at best an NHL backup goalie, so don't expect him to seriously challenge Elvis Merzlikins for starts unless the latter struggles mightily again. As for what happens to prospect Daniil Tarasov, he has yet to skate in training camp. Although Tarasov is listed as day-to-day, the Blue Jackets need a goalie with NHL experience in the immediate term, hence the claim for Martin. Aaron Dell is also at Blue Jackets camp on a PTO, but he doesn't have a contract.

As for Smith, I discussed his situation in yesterday's Ramblings. Barring an injury on the blueline, he will start the season in the AHL. Although Smith has tremendous offensive upside, he simply isn't viewed by teams as an NHL-level defenseman right now, even at a very affordable cap hit of $775,000. He's only rosterable in deep keeper leagues at the moment.  

Continuing the Fantasy Stockwatch idea from yesterday, here's some more risers and fallers based on add/drop trends in fantasy leagues, as well as my opinions of these players.

Rising

Josh Norris

Following shoulder surgery last season, Norris was cleared for contact earlier this week. Although he did not play in the Sens' preseason game on Friday, he is hoping to get into one or two preseason games. It doesn't sound like he is fully recovered, and he might even be questionable to start the regular season. That being said, Norris is a very popular waiver-wire add at the moment.

Norris finished 2021-22 with 55 points, including 35 goals, in 66 games. That's a solid 0.83 PTS/GP pace that would have reached close to 70 points over a full season. However, he was another player pushed down the rankings because of time missed to injury last season (just 8 GP in 2022-23). Because of that, Norris has a Yahoo ADP of 174 and he had been drafted in just 5% of leagues. His Fantrax ADP is better at 139, but that could also be considered a bit low. Since Ottawa could potentially be one of the league's better-scoring teams, target Norris in the late rounds of your draft.

Philipp Grubauer

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Grubauer checks many of the boxes for a Zero G target: He's a clear starting goalie, he plays for a half-decent team, and he can be had well after pick 100. In fact, his ADP in Yahoo is 160, where he is being drafted in less than half of leagues. You'd think he'd receive more respect at Fantrax, but his ADP there is even lower at 189.

After Seattle's disappointing first season, Grubauer seemed like a goalie to stay away from. He picked up just 18 wins in 55 games while posting mediocre ratios (3.16 GAA, .889 SV%). As the Kraken improved during their second season, so did Grubauer (2.85 GAA, .895 SV%). He didn't carry the team, but he was good enough to help get the Kraken in the playoffs and play in two 7-game series, winning one of them. Signed for four more years, Grubauer should have plenty of job security. He is by no means a top-tier fantasy goalie, but he provides enough starts to be rostered in most formats.

Falling

Trevor Zegras

At what point do we become worried that Zegras and teammate Jamie Drysdale won't be in the Ducks lineup on opening night? One report suggests that talks between Anaheim and the players' representatives are "murky and starting to hit a wall." Announcements can happen fairly quickly, but the NHL season is set to start in less than two weeks. Although both players have been training away from the team, they will not have had the benefit of a training camp.

Zegras has a Yahoo ADP of 150 and a Fantrax ADP of 117. Under normal circumstances, the Yahoo ADP is the one that could be higher. However, Zegras might have to be considered more of a late-round option at this point as opposed to a mid-round sleeper despite his upside.

Logan Couture

Couture is one of those players who gets drafted on rosters year after year without much thought. This season, though, he is week-to-week with a lower-body injury, which places his availability for the start of the season in doubt. The cupboard is getting bare for the Sharks, as Tomas Hertl is the only other player that averaged at least 0.8 PTS/GP for San Jose last season.

Couture was drafted in about one-third of Yahoo leagues, while he is rostered in nearly three-quarters of Yahoo leagues. Shallow leaguers can probably look for other options and drop Couture outright, since other centers are usually fairly easy to find. Those in mid-sized to deep leagues should probably wait for his status for the start of the season, then move him to IR if he's not ready to return.  

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