Ramblings: Drysdale Signs, Kaliyev Suspended, Players I’m Less Sold On Than You Are (Oct 6)
Ian Gooding
2023-10-06
Just days after agreeing to a new contract with Trevor Zegras, the Ducks have signed Jamie Drysdale to a three-year contract worth $6.9 million. Drysdale missed all but eight games last season because of a torn labrum in his left shoulder. He's a potential deep sleeper in fantasy drafts because of his offensive upside and potential power-play contributions. As well, Anaheim has the benefit of playing on a lot of "light days", which means that he can easily slot into your roster without scheduling conflicts with other players.
Something to note for roster planning purposes: Arthur Kaliyev has been suspended for the remainder of preseason and the first two games of the regular season. Kaliyev received the suspension for kneeing Anaheim forward Chase De Leo in a preseason game. De Leo is expected to miss about eight weeks after suffering an MCL sprain on the hit. Kaliyev is just 3% rostered in Yahoo but 43% rostered in Fantrax, which shows that fantasy players view him as less of a short-term option and more suitable as a stash in keepers.
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With the regular season less than a week away, you might have a draft this weekend. If so, pick up your Fantasy Guide from the Dobber Sports store! Remember to review your guide before your draft – there's too much information for you just to simply refer to it at your draft. Don't be that person that crams 10 minutes before the test!
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Since I've participated in a few real drafts already, I've gotten a sense of where certain players will be drafted. Like you, I have my players that I target and players that I simply ignore. That's why I felt the need to list players that fall into the latter category, which is what I'll refer to as players I'm probably not as sold on as you are.
None of these players are on any of my rosters, which isn't something I necessarily set out to do before my drafts this offseason. However, through pre-draft rankings, team needs, availability, and other factors that could perhaps include not paying attention, I decided to bypass these players. I'm sure I'll take the L and get sent to Freezing Cold Takes on at least one of these players by the end of the season. Fortunately for both you and me, fantasy leagues aren't won and lost on the fortunes of one player. Or we’re simply arguing over trivial differences between players.
Analysis is mainly for single-season leagues unless otherwise stated.
I'm past the "perpetual game-time decision" phase of Hintz's career and evaluating him as a player. I see him being drafted with an ADP of 27 in Yahoo, which seems way too high. If you're drafting a player in the third round, you'd expect him to be a top-20 scorer (since a few goalies and defensemen will also have been picked by then). Hintz's projection in the Dobber draft guide is 77 points, which places him just inside the top 50 – not the top 20. Moreover, his other peripherals such as shot total (around 200) and hits (under 100) don't justify the Yahoo ADP. If he falls outside of the top 50, I might consider. Before that, I'll let someone else reach for him. Hintz is #62 in our Top 100 Roto Rankings.
Boldy's ascent to fantasy relevance has been faster than that of fellow Wild prospect Marco Rossi. In just his second NHL season and at age 22, Boldy scored 31 goals and added 32 assists. In addition, his 255 shots was in the top 30 in that category in 2022-23. That being said, I see Boldy being drafted within or near the top 50 in some leagues, which seems like a reach to me. In fact, that Yahoo ADP of 55 has him being drafted ahead of established players like Quinn Hughes, Aleksander Barkov, and Jack Eichel, although I can get that he fills a position (RW) that has less depth than the other forward positions. Boldy is a very good player for sure, but I don't think he's going to improve much more than he already has – at least this season. Boldy is #70 in our Top 100 Roto Rankings.
I like Tuch as a player, as his combination of size and speed makes him a unique challenge for defenders. His potential icetime with Tage Thompson helps (although I'm not as sold on Tage as others are either). What I find concerning about Tuch is his status as a Band-Aid Boy, having missed close to 30 games in two of his past four seasons. In addition, his 16.5 SH% and 3.3 PTS/60 from 2022-23 are a bit higher than normal for him. For those reasons, picking Tuch in the 5th or 6th round in 12-team leagues (Yahoo ADP 51.5) seems too high for me. I don't think there's much, if any, room for Tuch to grow on his 79 points last season. Tuch is #87 in our Top 100 Roto Rankings.
Between his injury and lack of track record beyond last season, Montour could line up to be one of the season's biggest busts. I had my chance to add Montour during auction bidding and had others tell me I should bid, but instead I took a pass. He could return anywhere between November and January, which worst-case scenario would have him miss over half of the season. He has a Yahoo ADP of 83, which could turn out very well if he suits up for his first game in November. But there's also the added concern that Montour never had a 40-point season prior to 2022-23, so some regression from his 0.91 PTS/GP in 2022-23 should also be expected.
At the time that I write this, I don't know whether Levi will win the starting goalie job in Buffalo or whether he'll stick there all season. His future seems to be very promising, but I'm strictly focusing on one-season leagues here. You might suggest that this a product of me being a little more lukewarm on the Sabres since I've included Tuch as well, but this has Levi's lack of experience factored in as well. The main issue here is that Levi is only 21 years old, and goalies simply don't make the jump from the NCAA straight to a starting job in the NHL. The youngest goalie to play at least 40 games in 2022-23 was 24-year-old Jake Oettinger.
Need a second opinion on Levi? Pat Quinn has one from the Prospects Ramblings, where he lists a few rookies that you might want to pump the brakes on in single-season leagues.
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One more player that I haven't been particularly big on this offseason but has been making some noise in the preseason is Jonathan Drouin. In the Colorado/Vegas preseason game, Drouin has two power-play assists, giving him four assists in four preseason games. In this game, he was on a line with former junior teammate Nathan MacKinnon at both even strength and on the power play (Mikko Rantanen did not play in this game due to a lower-body injury, though). I certainly wasn't scrambling to add Drouin on any of my teams. I'm just pointing out the facts and letting you decide what to do with that information.
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The Connor Bedard highlight of the night… whoops, maybe not.
Logan Cooley's attempt turned out better.
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