Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. Since I’ve participated in a few real drafts already, I’ve gotten a sense of where certain players will be drafted. Like you, I have my players that I target and players that I simply ignore. That’s why I felt the need to list players that fall into the latter category, which is what I’ll refer to as players I’m probably not as sold on as you are.

None of these players are on any of my rosters, which isn’t something I necessarily set out to do before my drafts this offseason. However, through pre-draft rankings, team needs, availability, and other factors that could perhaps include not paying attention, I decided to bypass these players. I’m sure I’ll take the L and get sent to Freezing Cold Takes on at least one of these players by the end of the season. Fortunately for both you and me, fantasy leagues aren’t won and lost on the fortunes of one player. Or we're simply arguing over trivial differences between players. Analysis is mainly for single-season leagues unless otherwise stated.  

Roope Hintz

I’m past the “perpetual game-time decision” phase of Hintz’s career and evaluating him as a player. I see him being drafted with an ADP of 27 in Yahoo, which seems way too high. If you’re drafting a player in the third round, you’d expect him to be a top-20 scorer (since a few goalies and defensemen will also have been picked by then). Hintz’s projection in the Dobber draft guide is 77 points, which places him just inside the top 50 – not the top 20. Moreover, his other peripherals such as shot total (around 200) and hits (under 100) don’t justify the Yahoo ADP. If he falls outside of the top 50, I might consider. Before that, I’ll let someone else reach for him. Hintz is #62 in our Top 100 Roto Rankings. (oct6)

2. Matt Boldy

Boldy’s ascent to fantasy relevance has been faster than that of fellow Wild prospect Marco Rossi. In just his second NHL season and at age 22, Boldy scored 31 goals and added 32 assists. In addition, his 255 shots was in the top 30 in that category in 2022-23. That being said, I see Boldy being drafted within or near the top 50 in some leagues, which seems like a reach to me. In fact, that Yahoo ADP of 55 has him being drafted ahead of established players like Quinn Hughes, Aleksander Barkov, and Jack Eichel, although I can get that he fills a position (RW) that has less depth than the other forward positions. Boldy is a very good player for sure, but I don’t think he’s going to improve much more than he already has – at least this season. Boldy is #70 in our Top 100 Roto Rankings. (oct6)

3. Alex Tuch

I like Tuch as a player, as his combination of size and speed makes him a unique challenge for defenders. His potential ice time with Tage Thompson helps (although I’m not as sold on Tage as others are either). What I find concerning about Tuch is his status as a Band-Aid Boy, having missed close to 30 games in two of his past four seasons. In addition, his 16.5 SH% and 3.3 PTS/60 from 2022-23 are a bit higher than normal for him. For those reasons, picking Tuch in the 5^th or 6th round in 12-team leagues (Yahoo ADP 51.5) seems too high for me. I don’t think there’s much, if any, room for Tuch to grow on his 79 points last season. Tuch is #87 in our Top 100 Roto Rankings. (oct6)

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4. Yesterday I listed and explained a few players that I’m not as sold on as you might be. You might be wondering by now if any players fit the reverse category for me. Absolutely – I’ll call them players that I’m probably more confident about than you are. The best description seems to be that these are players who won’t regress as much as you might think. In fact, some are players I have drafted on my team and am perhaps trying to justify.

Another commonality is that compared to the players I’m not as sold on, this group of players consists of more veterans that might be viewed as being on the downside of their careers… or at least have passed the “shiny new toy” phase of their career. Although perhaps I made my case that I’m more confident in young goalie Knight than you are. So if you’re losing confidence in a prospect, is there still time for the player, and does there seem to be a way back?

Anyway, back to the veterans.

Jonathan Huberdeau

Huberdeau is being listed as a top bounce-back candidate in a few articles that I’ve read. So why is his Yahoo ADP still at 123? Even in the two drafts that I’ve participated in, Huberdeau is being drafted at around pick 100 or shortly after. Have we forgotten that he recorded 115 points a season earlier? Sure, he was a bust during his one season in Calgary (55 PTS in 79 GP). But the source of what was believed to be the problem (Darryl Sutter) is now out of the picture. The default pre-draft rankings are causing him to slip farther than he should, but I’d have no problem with you reaching for him in the top 100. (oct7)

5. Brad Marchand

Marchand will no longer score at over a point per game. However, in one recent draft I was able to grab Marchand at #82. Has he really fallen that far after being a top-10 fantasy option two years ago? Finding the right center after Patrice Bergeron‘s retirement might be an issue, but last season dropoff could also be explained by the fact that he started the season in late October after offseason surgery. His Yahoo ADP is 39, which I think is a bit high. Opinions will vary, but it’s easy to be bearish on the Bruins.

Morgan Rielly

At the time I’m writing this, John Klingberg has been battling an upper-body injury during the preseason, but he is expected to be ready in time for the Leafs’ opener. Even if Klingberg returns, I still see the Toronto power play as fluid. The Leafs probably want to give Klingberg his opportunity here because he’s at his most productive when he’s leading a power play. However, if it’s clearly not working, expect Sheldon Keefe to return to Rielly, who they are at least familiar with. Rielly had a down year in 2022-23 (41 PTS in 65 GP), but he’s still only one season removed from a near-70-point season. (oct7)

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6. In a round of cuts on Friday, the Panthers sent Spencer Knight to the AHL. Knight played in just 21 NHL games last season, as he entered the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program in February. Although it might seem like Knight’s career is taking a step back, this could be a positive move as it ensures he gets his game up to speed while providing him with more playing time than he could have received in the NHL. Remember that Knight is also only 22 years old – only eight months older than Devon Levi, who many consider to be too young to be an NHL starting goalie. I'm not suggesting Levi isn't too young (in fact, I argued quite the opposite yesterday). I'm actually trying to say that Knight still has a ton of time to develop into the starting goalie the Panthers hoped he would be when they drafted him in 2019. Maybe he’s right where he should be. In fantasy leagues, this could even be a buy-low opportunity.

In the meantime, Anthony Stolarz will begin the season as Sergei Bobrovsky‘s backup. Expect Bobrovsky to play in at least 50 games, as he has for six of the past seven seasons (the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season the only exception). I think the Panthers will have a bit of a Stanley Cup run hangover and are also without Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad to start the season, which won't make life easy for Goalie Bob. (oct7)

7. Just days after agreeing to a new contract with Trevor Zegras, the Ducks have signed Jamie Drysdale to a three-year contract worth $6.9 million. Drysdale missed all but eight games last season because of a torn labrum in his left shoulder. He’s a potential deep sleeper in fantasy drafts because of his offensive upside and potential power-play contributions. As well, Anaheim has the benefit of playing on a lot of “light days”, which means that he can easily slot into your roster without scheduling conflicts with other players. (oct6)

8. Ville Heinola was placed on injured reserve on Friday because of a fractured ankle he suffered in Thursday’s preseason game. Heinola has appeared in four different seasons for the Jets, yet he has never played more than 12 NHL games in a season. It may seem like he is past the point of being considered a prospect, yet he is only 22, having made his NHL debut as an 18-year-old back in 2019-20. Those who have rostered him in keeper leagues might have to be patient with him for at least one more season, as he has shown some scoring upside (37 PTS in 48 GP in the AHL last season). (oct7)

9. My own skater projections were finished last week – rookies are the last thing to add – and that allows comparisons across players and positions. I use a method developed by Tanner Bell, a fantasy baseball prognosticator, called Standings Gain Points (SGP). It just looks at what a player is expected to produce in a specific category, how much that player can provide above/below a replacement-level option for a specific league, and repeating that for each fantasy hockey category to come up with a single SGP number. That is done for both forwards and defensemen, so it can provide relative values at each position, and thus allows us to compare between forwards and defensemen. It just helps in accounting for positional scarcity.

The purpose is to look for draft values, but we need to start with Connor McDavid. His level of fantasy dominance is unparalleled, and this season’s projection carries an SGP impact that is 24% higher than the next-closest player. It is also twice as high as JT Miller, my 12^th-ranked forward.

After selecting McDavid first overall, it then becomes a game of accumulating value. Last season, a lot of McDavid drafters ended up with Jonathan Huberdeau at the 2/3 turn, and McDavid+Huberdeau was often a worse duo than Leon Draisaitl and Juuse Saros or David Pastrnak and Mitch Marner, for example. Getting McDavid gives fantasy owners a nice head start, but avoiding the landmines at the turn is imperative. I wonder how many managers have already drafted, took McDavid first overall, and got Andrei Vasilevskiy at the 2/3 turn. (oct5)

10. Second Tier Wingers: After the top wingers like David Pastrnak and Matthew Tkachuk, I have a four-man group of wingers that are all valued similarly overall:

TopRepSGP:

Mitch Marner: 6.25
Alex Ovechkin: 6.15
Timo Meier: 6:14
Mikko Rantanen: 6.01

On Underdog Fantasy, which uses a points system with the six categories mentioned, the differences in ADP between these four guys is stark for early picks:

• Rantanen – ADP of 7.0
• Ovechkin – ADP of 14.7
• Meier – ADP of 16.5
• Marner – ADP of 18.5

Nearly a full-round difference in the top two rounds between two guys that are separated by 4% in total projected value is… a lot. For anyone wondering, the reason for Rantanen's overall projection being quite a bit lower than most places is the assumption he loses ice time as Colorado is (mostly) healthy and they rebuilt their third line. There is also a modest goal-scoring regression anticipated and those small differences matter a lot at the top of drafts.

Whether readers agree with these rankings or not, this highlights how players can be valued similarly even if they’re completely different profiles: Marner is a high-end point producer that won’t help much in peripherals; Ovechkin is a goal/shot/hit machine that could be a drag in areas like assists and blocks; Meier brings a balanced approach that will lean more peripherals than production; Rantanen also brings a balanced approach but will lean more production than peripherals. Four fantastic flanks, all with a similar season-long overall projection, but all expected to get to the same destination with various routes. This is why fantasy hockey rules. (oct5)

11. Undervalued Forwards:

Joel Eriksson Ek
My Ranking: Forward #44
Underdog Ranking: Center #27, ADP of 133.5

This is a guy that is projecting as one of the top multi-cat values around. There are very few players that can threaten 30 goals, 60 points, 20 PPPs, 250 shots, 125 hits, and 50 blocks. That kind of across-the-board performance can help float his fantasy value, especially in head-to-head formats where weeks without points can still bring value. In an ESPN league last year that uses this same scoring system, Eriksson Ek finished as the 52^nd forward overall. In these multi-cat formats, I’d much rather have him than Elias Lindholm or Mark Scheifele. Just watch for power play combinations because being off the top PP unit would really hamper the Minnesota center’s across-the-board value. (oct5)

12. Alright, let’s get to a few defensemen; Miro Heiskanen and Evan Bouchard:

One debate I’ve seen a lot this offseason is which defenseman is the better draft option between the two titular names. In my rankings, they are 10^th and 12^th among rearguards, respectively. That ranking for Bouchard is lower than where he’s being drafted, and the big reason is ice time. Even in his big production stretch last year following the Tyson Barrie trade, Bouchard skated under 21 minutes a night. He was at 23 minutes in the postseason but that included three overtime games that all exceeded 24 minutes. In his nine non-overtime playoff games, he averaged 20 minutes a night. I will concede that if he skates 24 minutes a game this season, he’s likely a top-10 fantasy defenseman and quite possibly top-5. If he skates 20-21 minutes a night, though, he will need other-worldly efficiency to pay off his current ADP. (oct5)

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Alright, that’s it for rankings talk. This is the final weekend of drafting and I hope my writing – as well as everything else we offer at Dobber Hockey – has been or can be of help. 

13. New Jersey’s top line of Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes, and Tyler Toffoli is going to go absolutely bananas this year. It does seem like the power play units have been keeping each of the two top lines together to form each unit at the moment, with Jack getting his brother Luke Hughes at the point, and Dougie Hamilton seeing time teeing it up for Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, and Alexander Holtz. Tough to see anyone as a real loser there, except for maybe the final production with the man advantage for all of them if the units split time more evenly.

In net, I have high hopes for Vitek Vanecek this year, but if you can get either Vanecek or Akira Schmid at any kind of discount, then that’s a bet you have to make for a team that might end up winning the President’s trophy when all is said and done this year. (oct4)

14. Tampa has been loading up the top line for parts of pre-season, but that doesn’t mean that the second line of Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and either Nick Paul or Michael Eyssimont aren’t worth a look too. They should get some exposure to the big guns, and provide some excellent draft value. I feel like they're really getting forgotten in drafts. (oct4)

15. I had my toughest draft of the year over the weekend. It’s a re-draft 12-team ROTO league where we count G/A/P/plus-minus/PIMs/SOG/PPPs/Hits/Blks/FOWs & W/GAA/Svs/Sv%. We start four at each forward position, six defensemen and two goalies. It’s hosted on Yahoo, so forward positions aren’t a huge deal by the end of the year, but making sure you have enough RWs early in the year, plus some FOWs from the wing is key.

I finished with a solid core of Pittsburgh players, between Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Tristan Jarry, and Ryan Graves. I like the outlook on the entire team, as it’s a stronger team than last year due to the depth additions, not even to mention the upgrade from Jeff Petry to Erik Karlsson. I think that Graves, Reilly Smith, and Lars Eller will have a much bigger impact on this team jumping back into the playoffs than many realize. Getting Crosby in round two, and Malkin in round seven felt like an excellent way to round out my center core, and it was a stack I was happy to have.

Waiting for goalies was part of the strategy too, and it didn’t mean waiting until say round 10 or round 14 at the earliest, it just meant not jumping for someone like Jake Oettinger in round two, or an injured Andrei Vasilevskiy early in round four. I ended up with Jarry late in round five, as he was the last one I had in the top-tier of goalies that could pace for 35+ wins with solid peripherals. It sounds from camp that he is fully healthy again and looking great. He was the 12^th goalie off the board for us, but I feel like by the end of the year he will be at least top-eight for value in this league where both volume and ratios are necessary. (oct4)

16. Deeper into the draft, the more you have to gun for upside, and that either comes from trying to find the breakout star players that just aren’t on the radar yet, or figuring out which middle players will see an uptick in scoring because they are playing alongside the stars.

I went for a combination of both, between Logan Cooley and Jamie Drysdale as the possible pre-breakouts, and Tyler Bertuzzi, Connor Brown, and Ryan Graves as those who might see an uptick due to an upward change in circumstance. Bertuzzi and Brown will be playing alongside two of the top centers in hockey, and aren’t slouches on their own. The floors are reasonable enough too that at worst they are pretty much at the replacement level anyways. At best, they can provide top-80 or 100 value, and hitting on at least one of those late picks with that kind of return is huge. Give yourself the opportunity to gain that upside. You don’t win a league because your 16^th round pick produced at a 14^th round value, but anyone after pick 150 who can provide top-75 production alongside not missing on your early picks, that’s how you win. (oct4)

17. I’m excited to see how long Nylander sticks at center for the Leafs, as I do think Sam Lafferty and Matthew Knies can be great fits alongside John Tavares, doing most of the puck retrieval work. It’s a different look than having Nylander or Mitch Marner there, but not necessarily worse. (oct4)

18. Some early camp cuts that jumped out at me:

Ty Smith, Pittsburgh – The most unexpected cut this weekend. And even more – he was placed on, and cleared, waivers. Chicago has Seth Jones and a bunch of minor leaguers forming their defense…but they didn’t wish to roll the dice on Smith. San Jose turned up their nose at Smith and the very next day claimed Ty Emberson. Ouch. I don’t think a prospect’s stock could have fallen any further than Smith’s just did. That being said, he’s still a Kris Letang or Erik Karlsson injury away from possible redemption. If I have the room, I would be happy adding Smith at a rock-bottom price.

Shakir Mukhamadullin, San Jose – From what I read about his play, and Henry Thrun‘s, as well as seeing the Sharks claim Ty Emberson, and this move became very much expected. I believe Mukhamadullin is San Jose’s Golden Boy, so he’ll definitely be back – and probably this season.

Joakim Kemell, Nashville – I was expecting him to be cut, but I thought he would last a lot longer than he did. (oct2)

19. Erik Portillo, Los Angeles – Also an expected cut, but I like Portillo as a depth fantasy option because he’s behind Cam Talbot, who is a Band-Aid Boy, and Pheonix Copley, who I’m not sold on in terms of talent. I think Copley’s absolutely an NHLer, but to me his upside is that of a backup. I think we see Portillo before the season is through.

Vasily Podkolzin, Vancouver – No shocker here, but what surprised me is that by many accounts he had such a terrible training camp. ‘Terrible’ might be a strong word, but most will agree that his play was subpar. Podkolzin was rushed into the NHL too quickly and he seems destined to tease fantasy owners for the next several years.

Hugo Alnefelt, Tampa Bay – With Andrei Vasilevskiy out long-term, it was assumed that Alnefelt would become the backup. And since Jonas Johansson is so horrible, that certainly made Alnefelt a serious dark horse pick. Not so fast. He just got beat out of a job by Matt Tomkins. Tomkins was a former draft pick (seventh round) of Chicago’s, and had been toiling in Europe for several years. After a couple of successful SHL seasons, the 29-year-old was signed by the Lightning. And now it looks like Tomkins has won a job. There is your dark horse – Matt Tomkins. (oct2)

20. Mackie Samoskevich is a player I do not expect to make the Panthers this year. But he’s also kicking ass and taking names. (At time of writing:) He is one of just four Florida forwards to play in all four preseason games so far, and he leads the Panthers in scoring with three goals and five points. He’s also tied for the team lead with 10 SOG with Anton Lundell, who has that amount in just two games!. I took a close look at Florida’s depth chart just to see if there’s a way he can sneak onto the roster this year – and it’s definitely possible. He could beat out Rasmus Asplund and/or Grigori Denisenko to take a spot…and then he could bump Nick Cousins down to the fourth line and give Florida a solid third line alongside Lundell. Either way, we’re definitely going to see him in the NHL at some point this season for a cup of coffee at the very least – and I’ve added a projection for him in the Fantasy Guide. I’m more than ready to bump that projection to a full season the moment I see Asplund or Denisenko getting cut. (Ed. note: Asplund was indeed cut late this past week, while Denisenko was claimed off waivers by Vegas) (oct2)

21. Goalie Post has a FREE app! Email (and soon to have push) notifications of any last-minute goalie changes. Please rate and review. Within the app’s Starting Goalie Grid are probable win projections – a bar that goes right or left towards the team the calculation favors…goes further, the more of a favorite that team is. There is also a projected save bar for each starting goalie.

Get it on your iPhone here.

Get it on your Android here!

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