Ramblings: The Fabulous Hughes Boys, Carlsson’s Debut, Beniers’ Slow Start (Oct 21)
Ian Gooding
2023-10-21
Since Friday features just two games, I'll dive into analysis of the late games on Thursday.
In a seven-goal outburst for Seattle, Matty Beniers recorded his first point of the season (an assist) in his fifth game. In terms of total icetime, it's difficult to determine which power-play unit is the top one for the Kraken. So the fact that his percentage power-play time sits at around 45% isn't overly concerning, but it reduces his upside somewhat. In addition, Beniers has a very modest shot total (7 SOG in 5 GP). I've seen him dropped in one of my leagues, but I'd be more tempted to add him once the power-play time and shot average start to climb, if the scoring doesn't.
Vince Dunn is currently Seattle's leading scorer with five points in five games, including three power-play points. He's currently the Kraken's best fantasy option, and I wouldn't be surprised if that's still the case at the end of the season.
Brady Skjei is off to a fast start, tied for the Carolina scoring lead with six points in four games despite very little power-play time. Aside from last season, he's solely been an even-strength option on a deep Carolina blueline. Go ahead and ride the hot hand, but just know that it may not continue. His hits and blocked shots totals are modest, which means he may not be contributing much to lineups once the scoring dries up.
Tied for the Hurricanes scoring lead with Skjei is Seth Jarvis, who might be experiencing the breakout that was projected by many last season. Jarvis scored two goals and three points in the Canes' loss in Seattle on Thursday, giving him two goals in back-to-back games. He has also taken nine shots over those two games. Jarvis also has three power-play points over those last two games, and it's worth noting that he has been promoted to the first-unit power play this season.
One more from the Hurricanes: Jesperi Kotkaniemi has five points over his first five games. His average icetime is about a minute per game, but what stands out even more is the fact that his shot average is over a shot higher per game. He recorded a career-high 43 points last season, so modest continual improvements could be in order for the 23-year-old.
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In the list of offseason free agent signings, James van Riemsdyk to Boston seemed like an afterthought. However, JVR has made some noise, scoring three goals in three games while playing on the top power play, where he has scored two of his goals. A modest turnaround from last season (29 PTS in 61 GP) might be in the cards, but there are a couple red flags. First, van Riemsdyk has scored his three goals on just five shots. As well, he is averaging just over 12 minutes per game, which if you subtract the power-play time is less than 10 minutes per game – third lowest on the team. The Bruins play weekend games in Los Angeles and Anaheim with games against Chicago and Anaheim to follow, so he might be worth a short-term flier. However, he's an easy drop if the scoring starts to dry up.
With no real replacement for Erik Karlsson on the power play, the Sharks have been using a five-forward power play for much of their four games. Rookie Henry Thrun, who at one point seemed like the most likely replacement, was sent to the AHL earlier this week mainly to work on his defensive game. Thrun is tied for the team power-play point lead with a single point. The Sharks at least have two power-play points, which is more than what some teams have. Anaheim, St. Louis, and even Washington have yet to score a power-play point this season. Yes, that means you, Alex Ovechkin.
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Leo Carlsson had an encouraging NHL debut on Thursday. Not only did he score his first NHL goal, but he also logged 19 minutes on the top line with Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry, and he was also used on the first-unit power play. Remember that the Ducks selected him over Adam Fantilli as the second overall pick, so they seem to have extremely high hopes for him. Without the rookie treatment of limited and sheltered minutes, Carlsson could be worth rostering in single-season leagues as well as keeper leagues. He's currently 12 percent rostered in Yahoo. Some sort of winger eligibility would be more ideal, but he's at least worth keeping on your watch list.
Although Frank Vatrano didn't score on Thursday, he's had a hot start to the season with three goals in three games. His icetime has been noticeably higher, as he has averaged 20 minutes per game over those three games. That might have something to do with the Alex Killorn injury. With the many off nights that the Ducks are scheduled for, Vatrano seems like an ideal streaming option while Killorn is out of the lineup.
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If you've been as excited about watching Connor Bedard as I have, Thursday's game couldn't have been any duller. It did have action, but literally all of it was from the Colorado side of things. Bedard finished the game without a shot on goal or even a single shot attempt, which is something that has been unusual for him. In his previous four games, Bedard had taken at least four shots on goal. As of the time I'm writing this, Bedard is still in the top 10 in shots (20 SOG). With just one of those shots going in, he is due.
It doesn't get any easier for Bedard and the Blackhawks with upcoming matchups against Vegas (today), then Boston, then Vegas again. However, now is not the time to be giving up on him. Bench him if you must on a busy Saturday (which is what I might be doing in one league), but be patient. He will get better as the season goes on.
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After being benched for most of the third period on Monday, Timo Meier recorded his first two points of the season in his fourth game. Meier has been used on the Devils' second-unit power play, which is not where those drafting him close to his ADP of 38 had expected. Instead, it's Tyler Toffoli on that first-unit power play. One of the two was going to be the odd man out on a Jersey roster that is getting deeper, but it seemed more likely to be Toffoli before the season. Injuries and performance could change that, but Meier should be downgraded a bit early in the season. (Note: Nico Hischier left Friday’s game after the second period with an upper-body injury.)
Another power-play projection that you probably didn't expect: Luke Hughes is on the top power play over Dougie Hamilton. (As someone who rosters the youngest Hughes brother in one league, I'm not complaining.) I knew this, so I was patient with Hughes and didn't bench him this week even though he hadn't scored a point in his first two (eventually three) games. Hughes scored a power-play goal on Friday, which was his first point of the season. Surprisingly, Hamilton has three power-play points and five points in four games, so his value has hardly been affected. The Devils are deep enough and Hamilton offers enough peripherals that he should be fine.
Luke's older brother Jack Hughes is awesome. Yeah, pretty simple analysis. With two goals and two assists on Friday, Hughes has taken over the scoring race lead with 10 points in four games. That includes seven power-play points, with at least 1 PPP in each game. He's also taken six shots in each of his last three games, with no signs of slowing down. 3-on-3 overtime was made for guys like Hughes.
With three assists, Jesper Bratt has tied Alex DeBrincat and Elias Pettersson for second in the league scoring race. All three have played four games. Bratt is usually a fast starter, having reached 30 points in his first 27 games last season. Another 70+ point season is very reachable, but he will need to sustain a point-per-game pace throughout the season if he is to improve on his career high of 73 points.
In a losing cause, Bo Horvat and Brock Nelson each netted a pair of goals for the Islanders.
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Zach Werenski returned to the Blue Jackets' lineup on Friday, scoring a goal and adding an assist in a 3-1 win over Calgary. Werenski, playing in just his second game of the season, did not see much power-play time, instead conceding power-play minutes to Ivan Provorov. It seemed like Provorov was added to the Blue Jackets more for his ability to log shutdown minutes than provide offense, but he has received significant power-play time as well. Provorov is far and away the team leader in icetime (24:23), which should allow him to pick up scoring and peripherals along the way.
With Werenski back, Adam Boqvist and Andrew Peeke were healthy scratches on the blueline. Boqvist has been a healthy scratch twice this season.
Earlier in the day, the Jackets placed Liam Foudy on waivers. Foudy was a first-round pick in 2018 who simply hasn't been able to catch fire at the NHL level. There might be some interest in Foudy, but he generated just 14 points with a minus-26 in 62 games last season. Those that have been hanging onto him in keeper leagues can probably move on.
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Meier played line 1 with Hughes & Toffoli all game, and who knows if he’ll land on PP1 with Nico out. Downgrading Timo already seems a bit premature.