Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

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I can't figure out where I went wrong in my assessment with Peyton Krebs (BUF).

A few years ago when I zeroed in on prospects and keepers/dynasties in particular, he was a hot commodity: 17th overall in 2019, a solid 19% star potential, 15 points across 12 international tournament games for Team Canada, above a point per game on a very weak WHL team (although he was an astounding minus-50 that year!).

He seemed to offer a unique package of dynamic skill, leadership intangibles, and two-way prowess.

But fast forward to the present, and Krebs' value feels like it is in the gutter. The 22-year-old is pointless in his first eight games to kick off the new season. He has never paced for more than 32 points in a campaign. He is mired in Buffalo's bottom six, seeing a bit of PP2 action here and there. It's still early, but his Expected Goals/60 hasn't budged from last year, and the only other things that jump out from his underlying stats are that he is getting slightly more PP time but is shooting almost one less shot/60 than last year.

Is this just a case of the Sabres trying to cram a square peg into a round hole? And is there any reason for continued optimism given that he is on track to hit his Breakout Threshold at the end of 2023-24?

In the Fantasy Guide, Dobber still has Krebs' long-term upside at 85 points. That's if everything breaks right, he gets a Connor McDavid-like player as a linemate, good deployment, and so on, but that's an encouraging number. In terms of the Sabres system, we also have Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn at 85, while other guys slot in lower than that: Matt Savoie (80), Noah Ostlund (80), Jiri Kulich (77), J.J. Peterka (75), Isak Rosen (72).

Where do we see Zach Benson's ultimate upside? Go get the Guide, silly!

For various reasons, I get the sense that the Sabres' brass is lower on Krebs as a top-six offensive weapon than Cozens and Quinn in particular, and I wouldn't be surprised to see guys like Savoie, Kulich, and Peterka (his current linemate) leapfrog him also. It certainly feels like things are not working out for Krebs in Buffalo these days.

Peyton Krebs RAPM chart is going to be interesting this season, almost every line he has been on this season has been worse with him on it

— Sabremetrix📊 (@Sabremetrix) October 25, 2023

He clearly has not stood out in a good way this year. I haven't seen any dangerous-looking or dynamic flashes of play. Gotta love a guy like this on your bench though:

Krebsy constantly hyping up JJ 🙌

Watch the full Peyton Krebs mic'd up video: https://t.co/ieOQOHUYdi pic.twitter.com/qIaPQWuqpA

— Buffalo Sabres (@BuffaloSabres) October 26, 2023

Looking ahead to 2024-25, the only member of the Sabres' current top six who will need a new contract is Casey Mittelstadt (Restricted Free Agent), who will likely be re-signed. Krebs will be the Sabres' only other RFA up front in the summer, while depth pieces like Victor Olofsson, Zemgus Girgensons, Captain Kyle Okposo, and the perennially disappointing Tyson Jost will all be unrestricted.

Yay, more opportunities for Krebs in the bottom six…

He probably needs a trade to take the next step in his development, and that is probably the best-case scenario for his few embattled fantasy owners still out there. I would personally love to see him go somewhere like San Jose, Chicago, or Arizona. His face-off proficiency is another area where he'll need to improve (46% this year) but he could slot in as a solid 2C on lower-end teams like that. Assuming he stays healthy, he will be hitting his 200-game BT right at the start of 2024-25. Of course, a 25% boost on his best to date would still only yield a 40-point pace. But maybe he will turn things around and push into the mid-40s this year and grows beyond that next year.

My advice is leave him on the wire for now unless you are rebuilding. There are more red flags and barriers to success here than otherwise. I want to like him more than I do—I can feel my Optimism Bias pulsing—but even if he works things out eventually, that will likely still take a couple more seasons and there are too many question marks here to warrant an investment.

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Next, there were a few highlights from dynamic young guns this week that I wanted to cover.

Let's start with William "Slippery Pete" Eklund (SJS), who is toiling on one of the worst teams in recent memory but making a go of it. Given how stinky the Sharks are right now, he probably has a lot less value than he's held historically and could be worth an inquiry with his owner in your league.

I love to see this board-control/cycle ability:

This is just an insane shift of hard work hockey from William Eklund.

He was just preaching the importance of holding onto the puck & creating space, then he laces up the skates & demonstrates it.#SlipperyPete #SJSharks pic.twitter.com/FyEowZaQv2

— SnipeCity420  (@SnipeCity420) October 28, 2023

I also love to see young players trying creative moves like his patented spin-o-rama deke:

Look #SJSharks fans, they don't call William Eklund "Slippery Pete" for nothin'! pic.twitter.com/oo5ErN1gTf

— SnipeCity420  (@SnipeCity420) October 28, 2023

And finally, the one that initially caught my attention this week:

Fabian Zetterlund makes it 1-0 after a great feed by William Eklund. pic.twitter.com/1ezZQuTkpe

— JD Young (@MyFryHole) October 25, 2023

Anthony Stolarz may not be a high-end or even league-average NHL goalie but he is generally pretty solid. It's rare to see NHL goaltenders embarrassed so completely like that. Stolarz had NO IDEA where Eklund went with the puck. At this level, tiny details separate the stars from the rest, and Slippery Pete definitely has some star factor.

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Speaking of star factor, Jonathan Lekkerimaki (VAN) is now the SHL's leading goal scorer at age 19. His rebound year so far has been beyond impressive. He has come back with an absolute vengeance and seems intent on re-establishing himself as a premier fantasy asset.

Jonathan Lekkerimäki, folks. #Canucks pic.twitter.com/kvLhFbiAV7

— Dave Hall (@hall1289) October 28, 2023

There is so much to like in this little sequence: he kicks the puck up to his stick at full speed, attacks the middle, calmly pulls off a perfect deke, and positions the puck perfectly the whole time to avoid all three backcheckers before also beating the goalie.

He has been owned this whole time by die-hard Canucks fans in almost all my leagues, but my buddy and I did manage to acquire him in the off-season in the Dobber Prospects industry league we just joined. That acquisition is looking *chef's kiss* here in the early going.

It'll be fascinating to see if Lekkerimaki can keep it up and, if so, where his totals rank historically amongst U20 SHL skaters.

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No one is forgetting about Brandt Clarke (LAK), who will likely still see some more time in a Kings jersey before the year is over. But just in case, here he is dominating the OHL again:

Brandt Clarke with a tremendous individual effort to give Ontario the 3-0 lead. pic.twitter.com/MuBdFoMtAF

— Russell Morgan (@NHLRussell) October 27, 2023

He activates up the right side, enters the blue line backwards with a strange little through-the-legs deke (that probably wouldn't have worked on an NHL defender, but who cares), then glides sideways across the front of the net with an open blade before sniping. This was a guy whose skating style has elicited some very strong, unique vocabulary from scouts—including, most commonly, "knock-kneed"—in his draft year, so it looks like he is making some literal strides in this area.

He's about as "can't miss" on the back end as they come.

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In that same category, Lane Hutson is feasting hard on college competition in his NCAA victory lap this year.

I recently pulled the trigger on a trade where I sent Calen Addison (MIN) to receive Hutson plus a small pick upgrade. While I'm likely losing out pretty hard there in the near-term on PP production, assuming Addison can stabilize things, it was Hutson's ability to absolutely embarrass the opposition (plus my need for his minors eligibility) that convinced me to pull the trigger.

Lane Hutson doing Lane things. #GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/M8ZP3KCvoJ

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) October 27, 2023

I can't really think of many defenders (Cale Makar?) who move like that on the ice. And he brings that attacking, nimble-footed mindset to every single shift—even in practice and development camp. Add more strength, experience, and NHL training, and Hutson is going to be an absolute menace. The next Makar feels too grand pronouncement-y but really, that doesn't feel that farfetched to me.

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Finally, the top prospect defender on Dobber's Top 50 list, Luke Hughes (NJD) has improbably claimed the top PP1 slot for the Devils from Dougie Hamilton more often than not lately.

Is Lindy Ruff's decision to put rookie Luke Hughes on PP1, while relegating Dougie—who just racked up a career-best 74 points—to PP2, among the most surprising moves this year?

Luke: 66%
Dougie: 43%

Yes Luke had decent odds to get there at some point… but to start the year???

— Bangers Fantasy Hockey 🥊 (@HockeyBangers) October 28, 2023

I own Hamilton in a league where I'm in win-now mode, so this is not great news for me. But Hughes owners have to be ecstatic. "Jack & Luke," etc. The storylines write themselves. This is a fun team to watch as Jack Hughes becomes a superstar before our eyes. It looks like Luke won't be far behind him, and there are several other stars throughout the lineup too—many signed longer term.

The Devils look like a perennial contender moving forward.

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Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.