Looking Ahead: Minty Fresh
Andrew Santillo
2023-11-03
Welcome back all! It's another up and down week schedule-wise in the NHL season but good news to all, we have a "normal" week upcoming before things somewhat get a little crazy again. Someday when I'm NHL Czar (scoot over, Gary), I'm making sure to all of you that there will be six-eight game slates on a Friday night. The end of a long work week and you want to watch some puck, and lone behold there's one game that started at 6 eastern that is midway through the third. I promise all of you in my NHL this will not be the case! For fantasy. For DFS. For the people.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Ilya Mikheyev, C/LW/RW Vancouver Canucks (Rostered in 4% of ESPN leagues, 25% Fantrax, 10% Yahoo) – This might be the Immediate Fix of all Immediate Fixes. There are no clubs this week that play weekend back-to-backs that will also play in four games next week, but we do have plenty of clubs that will be in action four times upcoming. One of them is Vancouver, and I think there's a great fantasy opportunity here.
Just looking at the West, throwing records out for now, is Vancouver the fourth best team? Because I think they just might be the fourth best team. Next week they'll play four games with two of them on Monday and Sunday with each of those days having lighter slates with four games and five games respectively. I watched them the other night and noticed Ilya Mikheyev on their top line and was intrigued for a writeup here but wanted to make sure that it made sense. I think this week could be perfect.
Another Leafs castaway (sorry, couldn't resist), he only has five games on the season but in those five games he's been on the scoresheet four times and that comes along with 15 shots on goal with a minus three if your league scores +/-. His ice time might be a little lower than we'd want to see for fantasy at around 15 minutes on some nights but is skating on Vancouver's top line and that's a line that I can talk myself into in fantasy and DFS alike. For fantasy, Mikheyev is available in most leagues and although he does not skate with his linemates Elias Pettersson and Andrei Kuzmenko, he does still see some power play time on Vancouver's second unit. For DFS it gets interesting. If you love Vancouver's top line on a given slate, you can get unique and full stack the line instead of leaving Mikheyev off your stack, as price-wise it shouldn't be unmanageable to full stack and possibly fit parts of another top line with them.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Pavel Mintyukov, D, Anaheim Ducks (Rostered in 12% of ESPN leagues, 62% Fantrax, 5% Yahoo) – You ever scroll through your waiver wire earlier in the week but for one reason or another just can't pull the trigger on a player? That was me earlier this week in one of my leagues with Pavel Mintyukov and just looking at the numbers here, he might be a worthwhile add.
I know I've said it here in the past, but I've always leaned in fantasy that I usually do not tend to roster rookies. Too many unknowns along with the grind of a full 82 game schedule depending on where the player came from, can make it difficult for me to fully get on board. With Mintyukov though, I think there's a decent play here to roster him for the next few weeks. First off, the Ducks are still without Jamie Drysdale and without him in the lineup I thought that the Ducks would turn to Cam Fowler to take over top power play defensemen duties. That leads into the second point here, the Ducks in fact did not go to Fowler, but Mintyukov instead and that only boosts his value for us while Drysdale is out.
Mintyukov has five points in five games with shots on goal per 60 at exactly five, so he's dishing out the puck a fair bit which is what we like to see from the point. What also stands out here is his peripherals for those in leagues that count hits and blocked shots as Mintyukov already has 22 hits and 16 blocks. Not only is this great for fantasy on nights where he might come up short on shots, but in DFS he's a cheaper block bonus candidate alongside perineal block bonus candidate Ilya Lyubushkin. If your team is in need of a defensemen in deeper leagues it might be worth throwing a watch on Mintyukov to potentially make a claim.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Hampus Lindholm, D, Boston Bruins (Rostered in 64% of ESPN leagues, 66% Fantrax, 62% Yahoo) – I feel like diving into the Odd Man out, you never really know what direction things will go. We've had Odd-Man Outs from trades, injuries, even coaching. A suspension though? That's a new one.
So, a "Not great, Bob" stat off the bat here with Hampus Lindholm is that thus far in 10 games he has been left off of the scoresheet. That's somewhat alarming for a higher rostered player who plays on a club that so far has shown no signs of slowing up from where they were last regular season. On Tuesday when Charlie McAvoy was suspended for hit on Oliver Ekman-Larsson I thought that maybe the B's would turn to Lindholm to be their top power play defensemen, but it appears as though they are going with Kevin Shattenkirk to fill that role until McAvoy can come back next week.
Sort of an odd-man out or odd-man missed out, maybe? There's a chance here maybe Boston tires Shattenkirk out on the top power play for a game and goes to Lindholm, but with Lindholm being the one with the higher roster numbers, it's a letdown for those with him on their roster. I've seen him be sent away to waiverland in a couple of my leagues and I would recommend only going in that direction if you have a solid replacement, as I can't see him being involved in any trades one-for-one. That's assuming your league actually trades players. It's getting rarer by the season that trades actually take place.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Rickard Rakell, LW/RW, Pittsburgh Penguins (Rostered in 53% of ESPN leagues, 62%, Fantrax, 44% Yahoo) – I wrote about Rakell in yesterday's Capped article (free to read here at Dobber, tell a friend/relative), and wanted to also shed light on Rickard Rakell's season thus far here and why it might be ideal for him to remain off of your club.
Whether Rakell is on your roster now or you are looking to potentially add him, I have some worries. He became available in my main league, and Rakell being a player that I've always really valued in fantasy, his availability piqued my interest. Then I watched the Penguins versus Ducks game the other night and quickly changed my mind. Sometimes the eye test is all you need. I caught the first Penguins game of the season, and outside of the hilarious graphic that TNT put on the screen comparing Connor Bedard's first point and Wayne Gretzky's career total, one thing that really stuck out was that Pittsburgh's second line did not look in any way in sync. First game, maybe? Well, fast-forward to this week and things still looks disheveled and the numbers back it up. Accounting for all Pittsburgh lines that have skated together for 30 minutes or more, the second line has the lowest expected goals percentage.
For individual stats, Rakell has only recorded one point so far this season and I have noticed across all platforms that his roster numbers are beginning to decline. On some, there is a benefit that he is eligible at each forward position, but I think going forward I'd only roster him in leagues with larger rosters. You can keep him on a watch list if he is currently on your waivers because hey, it's Pittsburgh. They could catch fire like they periodically do but for fantasy he might be a stay away for now. For DFS purposes I just don't stack Pittsburgh. I can't count how many times they've been in terrific spots and come up short. Like oh say for example, the game against Anaheim I mentioned earlier. Sorry, Pitt.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through November 3– November 15
St. Louis – We love a homestand here, and that's just what the Blues will be on starting this week. They'll be home for four games before a road matchup against Colorado.
Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay isn't just a Love 'Em this week because it's Tampa, but because they are one of the higher rostered clubs that will appear in four games next week, with games against Montreal and Chicago in the mix.
Florida – Another club with four games on the horizon next week. They'll have an easier first two as well with games against Columbus and a struggling Capitals club.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
New Jersey – There's going to be a trend here, our Leave 'Em's this week all play two games next week. For New Jersey that is an issue as the Devils are one of those clubs that are a fantasy team in their own right. As a higher rostered team with less games, they'll be a Leave 'Em for the time being.
Chicago – I swear I don't just keep Chicago on here week-to-week. They only play twice next week, which is rough, with both of those games coming against Florida and Tampa Bay.
Vegas – The 9-0-1 start will slow up a bit next week with games coming against LA and San Jose. A club that was in action plenty this past week will get a break upcoming.
Friday, November 3rd to Thursday, November 9th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
St. Louis 4.67 – Home NJD MTL WPG ARI |
Tampa Bay 4.35 – Away OTT TOR MTL – Home CHI |
San Jose 3.31 – Home PIT PHI EDM |
Colorado 3.26 – Away VGK – Home NJD SEA |
Flordia 3.24 – Away CHI WSH – Home CBJ |
Steer Clear |
Carolina 1.96 – Away NYI – Home BUF |
Calgary 2.04 – Away SEA – Home NSH |
Anaheim 2.10 – Home VGK PIT |
Washington 2.10 – Home CBJ FLA |
Minnesota 2.61 – Away NYI NYR – Home NYR |
Saturday, November 4th to Thursday, November 10th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Tampa Bay 4.35 – Away OTT TOR MTL – Home CHI |
San Jose 4.26 – Away VGK – Home PIT PHI EDM |
Toronto 4.20 – Home BUF TBL OTT CGY |
Vegas 4.20 – Away ANA – Home COL LAK SJS |
Florida 4.06 – Away CHI WSH – Home CBJ CAR |
Steer Clear |
NY Islanders 2.64 – Away BOS – Home CAR MIN |
Buffalo 2.66 – Away TOR CAR – Home MIN |
Boston 2.75 – Away DET DAL – Home NYI |
Dallas 2.80 – Away VAN CBJ – Home BOS |
Nashville 2.80 – Away EDM CGY WPG |
Sunday, November 5th to Saturday, November 11th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Tampa Bay 4.19 – Away TOR MTL – Home CHI CAR |
Toronto 3.99 – Home TBL OTT CGY VAN |
Colorado 3.31 – Home NJD SEA STL |
Anaheim 3.31 – Home VGK PIT PHI |
Vegas 3.25 – Away ANA – Home LAK SJS |
Steer Clear |
Chicago 2.01 – Away TBL – Home NJD |
NY Rangers 2.05 – Home DET MIN |
Buffalo 2.66 – Away CAR PIT – Home MIN |
Minnesota 2.71 – Away NYI NYR BUF |
Columbus 2.85 – Away FLA DET – Home DAL |
Monday, November 6th to Sunday, November 12th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
San Jose 4.25 – Away VGK ANA – Home PHI EDM |
Florida 4.20 – Away WSH – Home CBJ CAR CHI |
Tampa Bay 4.19 – Away TOR MTL – Home CHI CAR |
Vancouver 4.14 – Away OTT TOR MTL – Home EDM |
Toronto 3.99 – Home TBL OTT CGY VAN |
Steer Clear |
Chicago 1.76 – Away TBL FLA |
New Jersey 1.95 – Away COL – Home WSH |
Vegas 2.21 – Home LAK SJS |
Buffalo 2.66 – Away CAR PIT – Home MIN |
Winnipeg 2.85 – Away STL – Home NSH DAL |
Tuesday, November 7th to Monday, November 13th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Colorado 4.35 – Away SEA – Home NJD SEA STL |
San Jose 4.25 – Away VGK ANA – Home PHI EDM |
Seattle 3.94 – Away ARI COL – Home EDM COL |
NY Islanders 3.85 – Away BOS EDM – Home MIN WSH |
Montreal 3.83 – Away DET – Home TBL BOS VAN |
Steer Clear |
Chicago 1.76 – Away TBL FLA |
New Jersey 1.96 – Away COL – Home WSH |
Boston 2.03 – Away MTL – Home NYI |
Vegas 2.21 – Home LAK SJS |
Buffalo 2.66 – Away CAR PIT – Home MIN |
Wednesday, Novermber 8th to Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Florida 4.24 – Away WSH SJS – Home CAR CHI |
San Jose 4.04 – Away VGK ANA – Home EDM FLA |
Dallas 4.01 – Away CBJ WPG MIN – Home ARI |
Washinton 3.90 – Away NJD NYI – Home FLA VGK |
Montreal 3.89 – Away DET – Home BOS VAN CGY |
Steer Clear |
Carolina 1.76 – Away FLA TBL |
Chicago 1.76 – Away TBL FLA |
Philadelphia 1.90 – Away ANA LAK |
NY Rangers 2.05 – Home MIN CBJ |
New Jersey 2.05 – Away WPG – Home WSH |
Thursday, November 9th to Wednesday, November 15th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Colorado 4.35 – Away SEA – Home SEA STL ANA |
Edmonton 4.23 – Away SJS SEA – Home NYI SEA |
Anaheim 4.23 – Away NSH COL – Home PHI SJS |
San Jose 4.04 – Away VGK ANA – Home EDM FLA |
Dallas 4.01 – Away CBJ WPG MIN – Home ARI |
Steer Clear |
Chicago 1.75 – Away TBL FLA |
Ottawa 1.94 – Home VAN CGY |
Toronto 1.94 – Home CGY VAN |
NY Rangers 2.05 – Home MIN CBJ |
New Jersaey 2.05 – Away WPG – Home WSH |
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.