Geek of The Week: Power Play Disappointments
Ryan Brudner
2023-11-12
Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this week's article, I am going to bring up two players that are getting plenty of power play opportunities, but aren't converting. They are leaving a big hole in the category of power play points. I'll give my take on whether things should bounce back for them, or if they may ultimately get demoted because of poor play.
(Stats listed below do not include Sunday’s games)
Seth Jones – 67% PPTOI Share, 4:05 PPTOI per game, 0PPG, 1PPA, 1PPP
It was never in doubt that Jones would get the first crack to quarterback Chicago's first power play unit. With all this power play ice time, he has just one power play assist to show for it. Chicago has had a poor power play conversion rate at 11.6% so far, but what sticks out for me is that he has just one power play shot on goal all season. His power play shots per 60 minutes was 12 last season and has hovered around 8 in seasons prior. It is just 1.22 at the moment.
Is it because he has an elite shooter in Connor Bedard playing with him? Is he thinking "I'll just let Connor take all the shots"? The answer is no and lies in his shot attempts number. He has taken 19 shot attempts on the power play. For reference, Bedard has taken 22 shot attempts. 15 of those 19 shot attempts have been blocked, while 3 have missed the net. Those blocked shots have likely resulted in many zone clears buy the opposing penalty kill unit. Per 60 minutes, Jones is actually taking more shot attempts on the power play this season than in prior ones. In the past three seasons, 48-60% of Jones shot attempts have hit the net; this season that number is 5% and should regress back to his norm.
In the last two weeks, Jones' PPTOI share has risen to 74%. As long as he doesn't get usurped by Kevin Korchinski, Jones' power play numbers should regress back to some success. For a defenseman who gets plenty of blocks and hits, more power play points should return him to fantasy relevance in multicat leagues.
Zach Werenski – 58% PPTOI Share, 3:32 PPTOI per game, 0PPG, 0PPA, 0PPP
We find ourselves with another power play quarterback on a team that has a poor power play conversion (13.6%). Werenski actually leads all Blue Jackets in power play ice time over the last two weeks. Contrary to Jones, Werenski is still firing shots on goal at similar rates to his previous seasons (12.76 PP shots per 60). His shooting percentage (0%) is not unique compared to his first unit teammates, as his on-ice shooting percentage (shooting percentage of all his teammates when he is on the ice) is 0% as well.
It is the second power play unit that has scored most of Columbus' power play goals this season (with Boone Jenner scoring one when Werenski was injured). The goals are bound to come for the first unit, especially with Patrik Laine returning from injury last night (scoring a goal in his return). Even if Werenski and his teammates continue to have a low shooting percentage all season, it will still amount to plenty of power play points for Werenski.
At his and his teammates current shot rates, even if low shooting percentages continue, I am projecting around 15 power play points for Werenski in the remaining 68 games. This will be better than most other options at defense. With Werenski sitting at 47% ownership on Yahoo, I would recommend picking up before he and the power play regresses to success.
Power Play Ice Time
Aside from the two aforementioned players, I'd like to bring up a few players that are getting more power play opportunities of late. Jeff Petry has earned some playing time on the Red Wings recently and last night he found himself on the top power play unit. This guy has been a multicat beast in the past and is worth keeping an eye on or adding.
Ryan Johansen has found himself trusted on the top power play unit of late, logging 4:51 PPTOI per game in the last two weeks. 5 of his 6 points have been on the power play. If he were to be taken off that top unit, any value he had will disappear, especially lacking in peripheral categories. But for now, he should get quite a few power play points with elite Avalanche players.
The Washington power play has not converted well so far, but I would keep an eye on Dylan Strome and TJ Oshie. Both are on that top unit alongside Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson, and Evgeny Kuznetsov. It is only a matter of time before the power play starts converting. When it does, Strome and Oshie will pick up those PPPs if they are still getting the same deployment.
Hope you enjoyed! See you next week.
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