Looking Ahead: Lafreniere; Colton; Carolina & the Global Games
Andrew Santillo
2023-11-17
Welcome back! A little bit of a stranger NHL schedule this week, but that mostly has to do with the Global Games taking place. At least, for some clubs. I still for the life of me can't figure out why the Rangers are only on the schedule once this week. With no games on the schedule next Tuesday and Wednesday, it may be a sprint to the finish so-to-speak.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Ross Colton, C/LW, Colorado Avalanche (Rostered in 3% of ESPN leagues, 22% Fantrax, 11% Yahoo) – For last week's immediate fix I wrote up Brayden Schenn which has so far been a good addition to most clubs on a Blues team that might be good? This week we're still going to target one of the better teams in the NHL but look a little bit further down on their depth.
This week I found myself looking at SOG's in the past seven days and on the list that stuck out was Ross Colton. I've thought from a far that this Colorado third line has been decent recently but watching them the other night made me seriously consider Colton as an Immediate Fix. Sure, this came in a game against the Ducks where Colorado was probably using more of their depth lines up what at the time was 7-2, but this line did stick out as one to potentially target. Adding an Avalanche player like Colton also makes some sense here too, as Colorado is one of the clubs that will play four times next week.
As for Colton's line, he's currently centering in between Miles Wood and Logan O'Connor and it's a line that has been producing offensively. In Colorado's last three games they have the highest Corsi% and most shots for. Colton also centres the Avalanche second powerplay unit and if there's one thing to help value, it's any exposure to the power play.
I think this add makes sense for those in larger leagues with larger roster sizes. I'm in one league with smaller rosters and there's only ten of us so in situations like that, there may be better options than reaching for Colton. I'm also in a twelve-person league with very large rosters and that's the perfect situation to make a move for him if you need help centre or at the forward position. For DFS, Colorado's third line has slowly become a favorite filler of mine for the past week, and I've been looking towards them to go along with fitting in a more expensive stack.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Alexis Lafreniere, RW, New York Rangers (Rostered in 19% of ESPN leagues, 65% Fantrax, 37% Yahoo) – So yes, if you're in Dynasty odds are Alexis Lafreniere is currently rostered and has been since he was drafted first overall by New York. This week's Building Block though is more geared toward getting in on the ground floor of what might be a very good rest of the regular season.
Coming into the season there was real worry with Lafreniere's game and just how he would fit into this Rangers lineup. I started to doubt it myself to a point and thought that maybe his ceiling was just a good NHL'er that got taken in a very strange draft year, and if that ended up being the case oh well. Recently though, he has looked fantastic with seven points in his last four games played and is playing along one of the best lines in hockey on one of the best teams in the game, that is if Vancouver ever falls back down to earth a little.
Why now in November add him? Often times here I'll recommend maybe throwing a player on a watch list or maybe make a claim on someone in a week or so, but this is an add that I would very much make sooner rather than later. Think of it as maybe getting in on the ground floor? New York plays only once this week and I think the exposure of just how good Lafreniere was playing has been maybe slightly forgotten about for now. If he really turns his game up and continues playing well along with the Rangers on the schedule four times next week, then there's a real roadmap to where he begins to appear on more trending lists in fantasy.
For DFS he's not correlated with the Rangers top power play unit which is hands down the better of the two but just looking at even strength, he is with Artemi Panarin on his opposite wing who has looked just as good as ever so far, and now has Vincent Trocheck as his centre. Believe me, I never like talking about injured players, but Trocheck centering that line has so far been better than Filip Chytil this season.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Teuvo Teravainen, RW, Carolina Hurricanes (Rostered in 56% of ESPN leagues, 72% Fantrax, 55% Yahoo) – I like to look at trends and matchups in my main league to get a good fantasy gage at times, while also watching more hockey than is probably good for me. Yesterday that all culminated as one, as in my matchup I went up against Teuvo Teravainen, while also rostering him in DFS. No points for anyone later, and I think it's time we make mention to him and his situation right now in Carolina.
For starters one point in the past six games isn't great, with a couple of those games in there being blowouts the other way for this Carolina club. The problem with Teravainen's fantasy production has been a circumstance of where he slates along the Hurricane lines along with who is shooting the puck for them. Teravainen at times is on the Canes third line, then goes up to the top trio, only to hop over the boards next shift with the Jordan Martinook line all over again. It's a mess and if you go back and look at Carolina game sheets, I have no idea what to make of it. You might lead the team in ice time on the third line, or you might skate next to Sebastian Aho for eight minutes. Never know.
For Terevainen as well most of the shots are coming from Carolina's blueline, as in the last two weeks three of their top shooters are Brady Skjei, Brent Burns, and Jaccob Slavin who leads the entire team. Believe me, it's more frustrating watching this club defer on shots just so one of the defensemen can clap a shot from the blue line, missing the net by four feet. Teravainen has also been a player that I've watched for a while, since his time in Chicago, and what was an issue then is an issue now, he really doesn't move enough on the power play to open up his game. It's a small thing to notice but does really impact just how much offense he could provide.
If you're rostering him right now, I don't think full out dropping him is the answer right now, but I do think if you're in between starting him or another skater, I would lean against starting Teuvo on a given slate.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Andrei Svechnikov, LW, Carolina Hurricanes (Rostered in 86% of ESPN leagues, 95%, Fantrax, 85% Yahoo) – From one Carolina skater to the next. I feel bad putting an Anchor next to Andrei Svechnikov but I feel like now is the time just based off of what I've seen so far.
I know when it comes to fantasy hockey, stats are king. I wish I could give you a fancy stat to back up why I feel that Svechnikov is this week's Anchor…but I don't have one. If I had to provide one it's this, and it's important. No goals since coming back from injury (six games), and that leads into something I've noticed. Something is just not right with Svechnikov, be it he is still recovering from the injury that took forced him to miss the start of this season, Carolina jumbling their lines, or maybe a bit of both.
Coming into this season, I have rostered Svechnikov in my main league the past three seasons and each slate he'd provide excellent peripherals while also contributing offensively. I know, "something just seems off", might not be a good reason to bench someone but sometimes I call it as I see it and so far, it's been underwhelming rostering the Carolina forward.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through November 17th – November 29th
Columbus – The Jackets grade out really well coming up here and that has to do with just how much they'll be in action moving forward. From Saturday to next Sunday, Columbus will play five games in eight days.
Vancouver – I think right now the Hart favorites are everyone on Vancouver's second line, plus Elias Pettersson is our Norris frontrunner, Thatcher Demko is your Vezina favorite. The Canucks also grade out well upcoming with two games against the lowly Sharks on the horizon.
NY Rangers – I'm putting the Rangers as a Love 'Em because they will play four times next week which is a welcomed reward for all out there who weathered the storm of one game this week. We made it through this difficult time together and are stronger because of it.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Minnesota – There's going to be a trend with the Leave 'Em's, spoilers but it's three of the clubs that played in the Global Series. We'll only see the Wild twice next week and it won't be until the weekend that they'll be in action.
Ottawa – The Sens play just once next week. Don't think I need to elaborate anymore on that, we can move on.
Toronto – The good news is the Leafs have the Hawks on their schedule next week, bad is that they also have Pittsburgh on a road back-to-back coming off the Global Series travel. They're a Leave 'Em for now.
Friday, November 17th to Thursday, November 23rd, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Columbus 3.85 – Away WSH PHI – Home CHI |
Vancouver 3.27 – Away COL – Home SEA SJS |
Anaheim 3.26 – Home FLA STL MTL |
Winnipeg 3.22 – Away TBL – Home BUF ARI |
Nashville 3.20 – Home CHI COL CGY |
Steer Clear |
Ottawa .95 – Home MIN |
Toronto 1.85 – Away DET MIN |
Montreal 1.90 – Away BOS ANA |
San Jose 1.90 – Away VAN SEA |
New Jersey 1.94 – Away – Home NYR |
Saturday, November 18th to Thursday, November 24th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Columbus 4.40 – Away WSH PHI NJD – Home CHI |
Vancouver 4.32 – Away COL SEA – Home SEA SJS |
Boston 4.12 – Away TBL FLA – Home MTL DET |
Nashville 4.11 – Away STL – Home CHI COL CGY |
Chicago 4.11 – Away NSH CBJ – BUF TOR |
Steer Clear |
Ottawa 1.84 – Home MIN NYI |
Toronto 2 – Away MIN CHI |
Detroit 2.01 – Away BOS – Home NJD |
Arizona 2.89 – Away WPG – Home LAK STL |
Vegas 2.90 – Away PHI PIT DAL |
Sunday, November 19th to Saturday, November 25th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Vancouver 4.30 – Away COL SEA SJS – Home SJS |
Buffalo 4.23 – Away CHI WSH NJD – Home PIT |
San Jose 4.11 – Away VAN SEA – Home MTL VAN |
Pittsburgh 4.09 – Away BUF – Home VGK NYR TOR |
NY Rangers 3.84 – Away DAL PIT PHI – Home BOS |
Steer Clear |
Ottawa .89 – Home NYI |
Winnipeg 1.76 – Away TBL FLA |
Carolina 2 – Home EDM TBL |
Minnesota 2 – Home TOR COL |
Detroit 2.01 – Away BOS – Home NJD |
Monday, November 20th to Sunday, November 26th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Vancouver 4.30 – Away COL SEA SJS – Home SJS |
San Jose 4.11 – Away VAN SEA – Home MTL VAN |
Nashville 3.90 – Away STL – Home COL CGY WPG |
NY Rangers 3.84 – Away DAL PIT PHI – Home BOS |
Edmonton 3.82 – Away FLA CAR WSH – Home ANA |
Steer Clear |
Ottawa .89 – Home NYI |
Minnesota 1.94 – Away DET – Home COL |
Vegas 2.06 – Away DAL – Home ARI |
Toronto 2.09 – Away CHI PIT |
Washington 2.21 – Home BUF EDM |
Tuesday, November 21st to Monday, November 27th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
San Jose 4.35 – Away SEA – Home MTL VAN WSH |
NY Rangers 4.14 – Away PIT PHI – Home BOS BUF |
Columbus 4.01 – Away NJD CAR – Home CHI BOS |
Buffalo 3.95 – Away WSH NJD NYR – Home PIT |
Boston 3.86 – Away FLA NYR CBJ – Home DET |
Steer Clear |
Ottawa 1.89 – Home NYI FLA |
Minnesota 1.94 – Away DET – Home COL |
Arizona 1.95 – Away VGK – Home STL |
Dallas 2.05 – Home VGK CGY |
Toronto 2.09 – Away CHI PIT |
Wednesday, Novermber 22nd to Tuesday, November 26th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
NY Islanders 4.46 – Away OTT NJD – Home PHI PHI |
San Jose 4.35 – Away SEA – Home MTL VAN WSH |
Chicago 4.20 – Away CBJ – Home TOR STL SEA |
Vancouver 4.20 – Away COL SEA SJS – Home ANA |
Carolina 4.19 – Away PHI – Home EDM TBL CBJ |
Steer Clear |
Ottawa 1.89 – Home NYI FLA |
Los Angeles 2.31 – Away ANA – Home MTL |
Arizona 2.89 – Away VGK – Home STL TBL |
Minnesota 2.94 – Away DET – Home COL STL |
Detroit 2.96 – Away BOS – Home NJD MIN |
Thursday, November 23rd to Wednesday, November 29th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
NY Rangers 4.30 – Away PHI – Home BOS BUF DET |
Columbus 4.01 – Away NJD CAR – Home BOS MTL |
Los Angeles 3.41 – Away ANA – Home MTL WSH |
Vancouver 3.34 – Away SEA SJS – Home ANA |
San Jose 3.31 – Home MTL VAN WSH |
Steer Clear |
Ottawa 1.89 – Home NYI FLA |
Arizona 1.90 – Away VGK – Home TBL |
Dallas 1.95 – Away WPG – Home CGY |
Seattle 2.09 – Away CHI – Home VAN |
Philadelphia 2.59 – Away NYI – Home NYR CAR |
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.