Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this week's article, I am going to examine two players that have crushed expectations so far. I am going to examine their underlying numbers to see if their stellar play is sustainable for the rest of the season.

The statistics mentioned do not include Sunday's games.

JT Miller – 25 GP, 13 G, 23 A, 36 PTS, 16 PPP, 56 SOG, 52 Hits, 19 Blks

This guy has been a top three asset in multicat leagues. He is second in power-play points and is leaps and bounds ahead of all other elite power play producers in hits. Vancouver's power play is converting at a rate of 27.5%. This may reduce a bit, but can stay near 25% if the Canucks' power play is truly elite. Miller's pace as of now in terms of power play points is 20 PPG and 33 PPA. Miller is shooting 33% on the power play, his career high. This is likely to regress a bit. His IPP of 80% is also a career high that should regress, though he isn't relying on secondary assists on the power play so far, which is a great sign. Overall, even with some regression, Miller should still be an elite power-play producer for the rest of the season, likely finishing with around 40 power-play points.

At even strength, Miller is shooting at rate of 16.7%. He has always had a shooting percentage in the mid-teens, so this is actually pretty sustainable. His even-strength goal pace of 20 is reasonable. His IPP at even strength is very high at 76%, but this is in line with his last few seasons; he's always been very involved in the on-ice goals. The only stat that yells regression at even strength is his teammates' shooting percentage while he's on the ice, which is at 16.1%. Even if you are playing with very skilled shooters, this number is usually below 12%. This is an indicator that Miller's even-strength assists will regress from its current 43-assist pace.

Miller's current pace of 39 goals, 76 assists, 115 points, and 53 PPPs will surely regress, but not by too much. I am expecting Miller to finish with around 35 goals, 65 assists, 100 points, and 40 power-play points. That production alongside his hits and blocks make him a stellar multicat asset. His season is relatively sustainable as a top 10 multicat asset.

Sam Reinhart – 24 GP, 16 G, 13 A, 29 PTS, 9 PPP, 60 SOG, 12 Hits, 28 Blks

Reinhart is surprisingly tied for second in the league with Auston Matthews in goals. Let's take a look at his power-play numbers. Florida's power play is converting at a rate of 17.5%, quite worse than their top 10 rate of 23% last year. Reinhart, like Miller, is converting at a rate of 33% in terms of shooting percentage on the power play. Reinhart has always been an efficient shooter on the power play. Two seasons ago he was shooting at a rate of 40%.

His shots per 60 rate has climbed greatly this season compared to a few of his past seasons, shooting the puck 28 times per 60 minutes on the power play and having it hit the net at a rate of 14.21 shots per 60 minutes. If these shot rates continue, Reinhart's power-play goals will be sustainable the rest of the season. There is even room for more power play assists as his teammates' shooting percentage of 11% while he is on the ice is extremely low. 20+ power-play goals and 10+ power-play assists is a reasonable projection for Reinhart's season.

At even strength, Reinhart's underlying numbers indicate some regression. His even-strength shooting percentage of 21% is a career high. Again, he's always been a high efficiency shooter, but I would expect this number to regress to around 15% if not lower. His IPP of 82.6% is also a career high. His past four seasons have been in the mid 60s. His even strength pace of 27 goals and 37 assists is very likely to come down. I would expect Reinhart to finish with around 20 even-strength goals and around 30 even-strength assists.

One area that Reinhart has really impressed in is the blocks category. He is actually tied with Matthews (yet again) in this stat, good for fourth among forwards, making him more valuable in multicat leagues.

Even with some even-strength regression, 40 goals, 40 assists, 30 PPP and close to 80 blocks is still a great fantasy season for Reinhart. I wouldn't expect his current pace of 99 points to sustain though. If you can trade Reinhart for a struggling superstar with 100+ point potential (Matthew Tkachuk or Kirill Kaprizov would be great targets), I would do that in a heartbeat.

Hope you enjoyed! See you next week.

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