Looking Ahead: Fabbri and Mittelstadt Producing; Terry and Barbashev Not; Seattle’s Home Stretch
Andrew Santillo
2023-12-08
Welcome back everyone! Anyone else in meetings right now scrolling up and down your fantasy hockey league? Yep. Me too. So hey, if it's a long meeting where either you don't need to talk or one where you simply unmute your mic now and again to say things like, "Yep", and "I agree", Looking Ahead is here for you right now.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Robby Fabbri, C/LW, Detroit (Rostered in 13% of ESPN leagues, 25% Fantrax, 4% Yahoo) – Artists often draw from their past to make accurate hockey picks. Or something like that? I rostered a Detroit stack in DFS earlier this week and was impressed by Robby Fabbri's play as he's been a player on my radar for a week or so. I think we can move him into the Immediate Fix category, and it might be a sooner rather than later addition.
Starting off with the good, and that's six points in four games played for Fabbri who has bounced around the Detroit top six over that time span. Even prior to his recent streak, since coming back from a lower-body injury in early November, he has put together an impressive run of 10 points in 10 contests. He's also listed as a C/LW in most leagues and just having that versatility for a lineup is fantastic to have. Planning ahead for a player like Fabbri with multiple position eligibility makes it easy to set a lineup in advance or move around if you're managing your IR.
The only somewhat-not-great news here is the ice-time, as he's gone as low as 12-13 minutes a night at times so you're now looking at having to produce in much less time than a top-six winger typically gets. While he has played in the Detroit top six recently, I think that may come to a close here as Patrick Kane returns to the lineup. I do think there's a roadmap to where the Red Wings don't exclusively use Fabbri on a third line checking group, I'm sure there will be games where he gets some time with Dylan Larkin up at the top. That said, if this Detroit third line is something like Fabbri – Andrew Copp – David Perron I really don't hate that line at all. I know Andrew Copp has been iffy but he's still a player that I like, and along with a solid player like Perron I can get behind this trio.
For an addition, I could see making this addition for larger league or even smaller ones if you have an injury spot that you need to fill. The Red Wings will be in action four times next week which can help filling out your roster if you decide to add Fabbri or have a Red Wing currently on your team.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Casey Mittelstadt, C, Buffalo Sabres (Rostered in 14% of ESPN leagues, 64% Fantrax, 26% Yahoo) – I was surprised in going through this week's prep that Casey Mittelstadt had lower rosters numbers on ESPN, and that got me thinking he could be this week's Building Block. I do spend the bulk of my fantasy time on ESPN with some Yahoo sprinkled in, but I do think there's something to making an addition for the Buffalo center here.
Mittelstadt went under the radar for me for a while this season, but I have a friend who lives in the Buffalo area who sees a lot of their games and has a good feel for the club. One thing we chatted about this weekend was that how this club has been so up and down from one night to the next, but the other was Mittelstadt and how good his play has been the past month or so. I'm not sure how I missed 44 assists from him last season, but it looks like he could be well on his way to a 70-point season this year and if that's the case he's worth taking a look at in fantasy.
Mittelstadt's ATOI has risen the past month or so up to around 22:15 from 18 minutes and if he's going to be in a bigger role here the rest of this season than I don't except him to come down from that. He's centering the Buffalo top line as well as top power play unit which is great for fantasy and as much as we'd like to see the Buffalo power play finally put it together this season, it is still valuable for fantasy. No matter what league or platform you're on, I do think that for the most part all positions are about equal as far as depth, maybe center the least of them all which could be why Mittelstadt's roster numbers are so low, but I do think adding him could be advantageous moving forward.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Ivan Barbashev, C/LW/RW, Vegas Golden Knights (Rostered in 59% of ESPN leagues, 54% Fantrax, 33% Yahoo) – I was coming up blank for an Odd Man Out this week and when that happens, I sometimes look at my main league's transactions and found what I was looking for. Thursday, November 30th, Ivan Barbashev found himself on waiver island.
You'll note at the top here next to Odd Man Out that there's the term short-term value in there, so I think we need to start by talking out rostering Barbashev if either you're considering putting in a claim or he's currently on your club. First off, the top here is that he's skating along the Vegas top line and has been since playoffs last season. That means more time on the ice with Jack Eichel which is a great place to be for fantasy. I think what's also a benefit here along with just where he skates on this Vegas roster is what he brings in the hits and blocked shots department as he has 44 hits and 17 blocks on the season. To go along with a decent peripheral game, you can play him at any position for most leagues which like I mentioned earlier with Robby Fabbri, just makes putting a roster together easier week-by-week.
I think where the Odd Man might come into play here is just where his value goes the rest of the season. I feel like there's a player every postseason that just really heats up and, more often than not, that player is drafted higher in most leagues because of playoff performance. Don't get me wrong, I was guilty of that with Barbashev as I had him circled in my main league and during our live draft when he was taken you heard a couple sighs and maybe a choice word or two directed at the person who drafted him. So far though five goals and four assists are tough sledding and that only brings down his average fantasy points night-to-night. This is a tough one because although Barbashev is a player that I like, I'm not sure if rostering him long-term this season makes sense. I think in this case it could be a "wait and see" situation with potentially making a trade if he begins to heat up at somepoint.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Troy Terry, C/RW, Anaheim Ducks (Rostered in 50% of ESPN leagues, 74%, Fantrax, 38% Yahoo) – Around a week or so ago, I highlighted Troy Terry as a potential Anchor because, I guess in short, one day he was shooting the puck…then one day he wasn't. Seems funny but looking at a stretch from November 14th to November 24th (six games), Terry only had three shots on goal, not shot attempts if your league scores that, actual shots on goal. This fall off has led me to making Terry this week's Anchor.
When we look at Troy Terry season-to-season I do feel like it can be a little skewed because of the absolute heater he went on last season. He's still a good player that I think has fantasy value to be fair, but recently I'm not sure he's a good player to roster for right now. The situation in Anaheim isn't exactly great for offense and just two points in his last ten games might mirror that fact. His shots on goal per 60 is down over a point from last season and that often leads to a drop in points per 60, which it has. I think for those rostering Troy Terry right now check your league's waiver to see if there could be a replacement available.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through December 8th – December 21st
Edmonton – The Oilers have a high best bet score and I think it might be solely because they play the Blackhawks next week. A homestand of course helps as well, but with a "weaker" opponent coming in helps the Oilers become a Love Em this week.
Seattle – We love a homestand! The Kraken will start a stretch of five home games this weekend, they're a Love 'Em for the time being.
Carolina – Okay is Carolina in good shape right now? I've watched a lot of this club lately and not sure they're in that middle tier of clubs right now. Regardless, they're going to have to get right on this stretch of games coming up, they are a Love 'Em with a packed schedule on the horizon.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Los Angeles – I don't think it's farfetched to say that the Kings might be playing the best hockey in the league right now. However, a light schedule next week is holding me back from putting them up as a Love 'Em this week.
Columbus – Only two games next week for the Jackets against two of the higher volume shooting clubs with meetings again Toronto and New Jersey, they're a Leave 'Em for now.
Minnesota – Only two games on the horizon next week for the Wild but this might be a good time for a factory reset for them with a new coach? Might not be the worst time for a lighter schedule.
Friday, December 8th to Thursday, December 14th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
St. Louis 4.34 – Away CBJ CHI – Home DET OTT |
Edmonton 4.31 – Home MIN NJD CHI TBL |
Seattle 4.15 – Home TBL MIN FLA CHI |
Chicago 4.10 – Away EDM SEA – Home STL WSH |
Florida 3.95 – Away CBJ SEA VAN – Home PIT |
Steer Clear |
Anaheim 1.86 – Away NYI – Home WPG |
San Jose 2 – Away VGK – Home WPG |
Dallas 2.15 – Home VGK DET |
Boston 2.25 – Away NJD – Home ARI |
Los Angeles 2.71 – Away NYI NYR – WPG |
Saturday, December 9th to Thursday, December 15th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Boston 4.27 – Away COL VGK – Home MTL ARI |
Vegas 4.27 – Away DAL – Home SJS CGY BUF |
Seattle 4.15 – Home TBL MIN FLA CHI |
NY Rangers 4.15 – Away WSH – Home LAK TOR ANA |
Arizona 4.11 – Away BOS BUF PIT – Home SJS |
Steer Clear |
Columbus 1.95 – Away TOR – Home FLA |
Minnesota 2.04 – Away SEA – Home CGY |
Pittsburgh 2.35 – Away MTL – Home ARI |
Anaheim 2.71 – Away NYI NYR – Home WPG |
Los Angeles 2.71 – Away NYI NYR – Home WPG |
Sunday, December 11th to Saturday, December 17th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Arizona 4.41 – Away BUF PIT – Home SJS BUF |
Colorado 4.36 – Away WPG – Home CGY BUF SJS |
NY Islanders 4.29 – Away MTL – Home TOR ANA BOS |
Buffalo 4.11 – Away COL VGK ARI – Home ARI |
Carolina 4.10 – Away OTT DET – Home NSH WSH |
Steer Clear |
Minnesota 1.94 – Home CGY VAN |
Montreal 1.94 – Home PIT NYI |
Los Angeles 2.10 – Away SEA – Home WPG |
Columbus 2.11 – Away TOR – Home NJD |
Anaheim 2.71 – Away NYI NYR NJD |
Monday, December 12th to Sunday, December 18th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Pittsburgh 4.24 – Away MTL TOR – Home ARI MIN |
Winnipeg 4.20 – Away SJS LAK – Home COL MTL |
Carolina 4.10 – Away OTT DET – Home NSH WSH |
Seattle 4.06 – Away DAL – Home FLA CHI LAK |
Detroit 3.99 – Away STL PHI – Home CAR ANA |
Steer Clear |
Los Angeles 2.10 – Away SEA – Home WPG |
Columbus 2.11 – Away TOR – Home NJD |
Tampa Bay 2.71 – Away VAN EDM CGY |
Washington 2.76 – Away PHI NSH CAR |
Boston 2.80 – Away NJD NYI – Home NYR |
Tuesday, December 13th to Monday, December 19th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Colorado 4.51 – Away WPG CHI – Home BUF SJS |
New Jersey 4.31 – Away CBJ – Home BOS ANA PHI |
NY Islanders 4.29 – Away MTL – Home ANA BOS EDM |
Carolina 4.15 – Away DET – Home NSH WSH VGK |
Buffalo 4 – Away COL VGK ARI – Home CBJ |
Steer Clear |
Florida 2.71 – Away VAN EDM CGY |
Edmonton 2.75 – Away NYI – Home TBL FLA |
Washington 2.76 – Away PHI NSH CAR |
Calgary 2.80 – Away MIN – Home TBL FLA |
Nashville 2.81 – Away CAR – Home WSH VAN |
Wednesday, December 14th to Tuesday, December 20th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Carolina 4.15 – Away DET – Home NSH WSH VGK |
NY Islanders 4.13 – Away MTL WSH – Home BOS EDM |
Detroit 4.04 – Away PHI WPG – Home CAR ANA |
Seattle 3.92 – Away DAL LAK – Home CHI LAK |
Vancouver 3.90 – Away MIN CHI NSH – Home FLA |
Steer Clear |
Montreal 1.84 – Away WPG – Home NYI |
Pittsburgh 1.90- Away TOR – Home MIN |
Boston 2.70 – Away NYI – Home NYR MIN |
Florida 2.71 – Away VAN EDM CGY |
Edmonton 2.75 – Away NYI – Home TBL FLA |
Thursday, December 15th to Wednesday, December 21st, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Arizona 4.66 – Away SJS – Home SJS BUF OTT |
Colorado 4.45 – Away WPG CHI – Home SJS OTT |
New Jersey 4.41 – Away CBJ – Home ANA PHI EDM |
Buffalo 4.20 – Away VGK ARI – Home CBJ TOR |
NY Islanders 4.13 – Away MTL WSH – Home BOS EDM |
Steer Clear |
Chicago 1.89 – Home VAN COL |
Seattle 2.66 – Away DAL LAK – Home 2.66 |
Boston 2.70 – Away NYI – Home NYR MIN |
Montreal 2.70 – Away WPG MIN – Home NYI |
St. Louis 2.70 – Away TBL FLA – Home DAL |
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.