On Monday, the Ottawa Senators relieved D.J. Smith of his head coaching duties, replacing him with Jacques Martin on an interim basis. The team also announced franchise legend Daniel Alfredsson as a new assistant coach.  

Smith took over as head coach in Ottawa back in May of 2019. Since then, the club ranks 24^th in league standings with a record of 131-154-32. During that stretch, they rank 23^rd in goals for per game (2.89) and 25^th in goals against per game (3.31). Now, the Sens were navigating a rebuild for most of Smith's tenure, so it's hard to be too critical of his lacklustre numbers. This season was the first one in which Ottawa had sizeable playoff aspirations. Young players were hitting their stride, management had traded for Jakob Chychrun late last season, and the organization spent a decent chunk of change to sign free agents Vladimir Tarasenko and Joonas Korpisalo. Expectations were at a high level, but performance was not. Over two months into the season and the Sens sit dead last in the conference with a record of 11-15-0, currently on a four-game losing streak. At present, Dom Luszczyszyn's model gives Ottawa a measly 11% chance of making the playoffs. There's still some runway to right the ship as Ottawa has the most games left to play (56) of any team in the league. It'll be interesting to see if this coaching change is enough to get this group back on track.

Although the team is off to a rough start this year, it's hard to lay all the blame on Smith's shoulders. The Sens have struggled to keep pucks out of the net this year, surrendering 3.42 goals per game, the seventh-highest GAA in the league. However, advanced stats suggest they've been playing decent defense, at least at even strength. Based on expected goals against, the team's defense ranks 11^th in the league (via NaturalStatTrick). It seems they've been sunk by a struggling penalty kill and goaltending woes. The team's PK currently sits second last in the NHL, with a success rate of 72.4%. Last year, they ranked 14^th in the league, clicking at 80.1%.

Through 17 games, starting netminder Joonas Korpisalo holds a 3.50 GAA and .892 save percentage. Anton Forsberg hasn't been any better, boasting a 3.23 GAA and .876 save percentage over 11 outings. If you read my take on Minnesota's hiring of John Hynes/firing of Dean Evason, you may recall how I endorsed Filip Gustavsson when that coaching change was made. My logic was that Minnesota was playing well defensively, Gustavsson was a talented goalie, and the coaching change would be a wake-up call for him to find his game. Although we have a few of the same ingredients here, one key difference is that Ottawa's goalies don't have the same pedigree that Gustavsson does. I'm optimistic their numbers will improve to some extent because Jacques Martin has been a defensively minded coach in the past, but I'm not sure how much I believe in the individual talent of Korpisalo and Forbserg.

Jacuqes Martin has spent most of the last decade as an assistant coach with the Rangers and Penguins. Although he was head coach of the Senators from 1996 to 2004, his most recent head coaching gig was with Montreal. Martin oversaw the Canadiens from October 2009 to December 2011. During that period, Montreal's defensive numbers were much better than their offensive numbers – although the team's roster had significantly less scoring talent than today's Senators do. Regardless, Martin seems to focus on defense more than offense. Although it's been a while since he's been an NHL bench boss, I expect that emphasis on defense to continue this year. That should help Ottawa's goalies post better numbers, but again, the magnitude of that improvement might be limited because Korpisalo and Forsberg might just be below-average goalies. Martin's defensive focus might also put certain offense-only players like Tarasenko in the doghouse.  

One final thing to monitor with this coaching change is Ottawa's power play. They currently sit 21^st in the league with a 17.8% success rate after finishing 8^th last season, when they clicked at 23.5%. Although personnel has been different this year (i.e., Alex DeBrincat leaving; Thomas Chabot injured), the team is also splitting time more evenly between two units than they were last year. If this new coaching staff opts for the more conventional approach of one clear-cut top unit, then that's good news for whoever cracks the top group.

Honestly, because it's been so long since we've seen Jacques Martin as a head coach, I'm not too sure what exactly to expect going forward. Based on what we've seen in the past, a focus on defense is likely. In addition, players tend to put their best foot forward as they audition for a new coach, so don't be surprised to see strong performances from the Senators in the short term. NHL teams that have fired their coaches this season (Edmonton, Minnesota and St. Louis) are a combined 19-7-0 in games under new bosses.

Players this might help:

Joonas Korpisalo

Anton Forsberg

Players this might hurt:

Vladimir Tarasenko