Ramblings: Updates on Larkin, Dell, Quinn, and Oettinger; Smith Fired; Early Fantasy Goaltender Awards – December 19

Michael Clifford

2023-12-19

Dylan Larkin had been off to a great start this season with 11 goals and 25 points in 24 games, averaging 3.5 shots per game while posting 13 power play points. That recent injury was really unfortunate, given his history, and there was concern that he could have a lengthy absence. The good news is that he was back for Detroit on Monday night, with this as their top two lines:

It should be noted that his return pushed Lucas Raymond to the second PP unit. He is not being rewarded for his excellent play.

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Ottawa fired head coach DJ Smith on Monday and named coaching advisor Jacques Martin as interim coach. Ottawa is in the midst of a 3-8 skid at a time when they needed to make up ground in the playoff race. It seemed inevitable.

Whatever problems the team had, their offence had suffered this year and fantasy owners need to hope they can turn it around under Martin. I have my doubts, so we'll just have to wait and see. Martin hasn't had a head coaching gig in the NHL in over a decade, so whether his tactics jive with the modern era remains to be seen.

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Carolina has signed goalie Aaron Dell

Of course, this doesn't mean he'll get in NHL games, but Carolina has just three wins in their last nine and has the worst save percentage in the league. They need any goalie to just approach mediocrity (and stay healthy), and with the way the netminders have played, Dell at least has a chance to get a meaningful workload.

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Positive injury news for Buffalo, which has been rare:

Jordan Greenway could have multi-cat value if the team ever gets going offensively. TBD.

On the flipside, more good with some bad. Alex Tuch was not at practice, nor was Jeff Skinner (who was injured last week), but Jack Quinn was on the top line with Zach Benson and Tage Thompson. A lot of moving parts with that forward group right now. Quinn may not be back immediately, but it is a good sign an imminent return. We will find out more later today.

The team said Tuch was just maintenance but I’ve been trusting coaches less and less with that designation of late.

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Bad news for Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger:

Week-to-week is never a good designation. His fantasy owners shouldn't expect him back until 2024 even if he avoided a more serious fate.

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Perhaps some good news for Andrei Svechnikov:

That is usually the last step before returning to game action, but we'll see; Carolina has been tight with their lineups this season.

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Jacob Markstrom was back in net for Calgary on Monday night after missing over a week because of that broken finger. He had largely been playing very well going back to Halloween, and fantasy owners can breathe a sigh of relief (for now).

Chris Tanev also returned to the lineup.

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Boston got Pavel Zacha back at practice yesterday and he was on the top line with Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak. Might be a good time to see if anyone dropped him over the 10 days he was injured. Morgan Geekie remains on the top PP unit for now, along with that top trio.

We also got news that Matt Poitras was indeed loaned by Boston to Team Canada for the World Junior tournament, as has been rumoured.

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Last week's Ramblings saw me do a couple lighter posts by handing out early-season awards for both forwards and defencemen. Today, we'll move to the goalies.

Like other fantasy players, I am a believer in late-round goalie drafting. While some top goalies have been very good this year – Connor Hellebuyck and Linus Ullmark, to varying degrees – great performances from Connor Ingram, Charlie Lindgren, Adin Hill, and Cam Talbot are showing why that's a viable strategy. To the Igor Shesterkin fantasy owners: there are a whole 53 more games to go!

Anyway, let's get to the meaningless awards. As with the skaters, draft position will be factored into the value the following netminders have provided.

The Henrik Lundqvist Award

Of all the things that made Lundqvist so great was his consistency; he managed at least a .920 save percentage for seven straight seasons and was .910 or better for 13 straight years. Having reliable goaltending year after year is something that NHL general managers fantasize about, and that certainly extends to fantasy owners. There are elite goalies, but even elite goalies have bad years sometimes. There is still over half this regular season to go, but the pick here is certainly showing signs of that same kind of consistency again.

And the winner is… Connor Hellebuyck.

After a bad first week of the season that saw Hellebuyck allow 13 goals in three starts, posting an .843 save percentage, he has allowed just 40 goals in 19 starts since, posting a .928 save percentage. On the year, he has a .917 save percentage and staying at this level would give him seven straight seasons of .910 or better, and eight of nine in his career. Unless Andrei Vasilievskiy goes supernova in the second half, Hellebuyck may be the only goalie to appear in at least 30 games and post a save percentage of .910 or better in each of the last seven seasons. We will see where things stand in April, but Hellebuyck is showing why he's been one of the top goalies in the league since Lundqvist's prime years.

The Devan Dubnyk Award

Teams influence goaltenders a lot. A poor penalty kill can crush a goalie's fantasy numbers (see: Marc-André Fleury this season) while a bad 5-on-5 team can take an otherwise-solid performance from a goalie and render him unreliable for fantasy (see: John Gibson last season). There are always times when a goalie appears to be mediocre (or worse), changes teams, and then becomes an excellent fantasy goalie. The namesake of this award is one such person. There are a few to choose from this season.

And the winner is… Cam Talbot.

It is funny to select Talbot when former Los Angeles King Jonathan Quick also applies, but Talbot has been superb this season. After a poor season in Ottawa, Talbot signed with Los Angeles in the offseason and has had a great start for his fantasy managers with a .926 save percentage, 2.02 goals against average, and 13 wins in 19 starts. Playing behind one of the top defensive teams in the league has helped his fantasy value tremendously and as long as he can stay healthy, he has a good chance of being one of the best value picks, at any position, this season. Late-round goaltending, indeed.

The Jordan Binnington Award

While the St. Louis turnaround years ago that led to their Stanley Cup was partly coaching, it was also largely Jordan Binnington. He started the year in the AHL, and his second half got them to the postseason, and eventually to a league title.

This season, there aren't really a lot of players to choose from. Charlie Lindgren could apply as he's basically the only reason Washington is close to a playoff spot, but he has seven fewer starts than the winner. Carter Hart is another potential name here but it's hard to say he came out of nowhere, and the team is legitimately good defensively. There is one clear option, then.

And the winner is… Connor Ingram.

While he hasn't necessarily come out of nowhere, Arizona was generally a consensus bottom-10 team in most spots I saw before the season. Ingram played well enough in Arizona last season, posting a .907 save percentage in 27 appearances and he, like Lindgren, is the main reason why his team is in a playoff race. Arizona has played 30 games, and 18 were started by Ingram. He has 12 wins in those 18 starts, and Arizona has 15 wins on the season, meaning they've won 3 of 12 games not started by Ingram. His three shutouts also tie him for the league lead at the moment. If he can keep doing this, and Arizona's top line can ever figure out their offence at even strength, this is a playoff team in the West.

The John Gibson Award  

Gibson was mentioned earlier, and it was a reference to his 2022-23 season. He faced 39.6 shots per 60, a mark 9% higher than the next-closest goalie, and 14.5% more than the second-closest goalie. He played well, all things considered, but playing behind arguably the worst defensive team of the last 15 years didn't help much.

Every year, there are goalies like this; despite a poor team in front of them, they play very well and keep their teams in games. The poor team performance can lead to an inconsistent fantasy goalie, but there are huge games/weeks that help tremendously. The San Jose goalies can fit here but both have a save percentage under .900 with neither having more than five wins. As Yoda once said, there is another.

And the winner is… Sam Montembeault.

Is this my Montreal fandom coming to the forefront? Who can say. What I will say is that Montreal is tied for 27th by expected goals against per minute this season (San Jose is 31st) but Montreal's goals against per minute is 13th (San Jose is 30th). Montembeault has a .911 save percentage, easily the best of the team's three goalies, and he's won (7) more than half his starts (13). The Canadiens' goalie rotation has been a nuisance for fantasy owners, but anyone that grabbed Montembeault off the wire early in the season (or drafted him late) as a third/fourth goalie is probably pretty happy with that decision.

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