Analytics Advantage: Using PDO, Expected Goals, and IPP to Identify Key Contributors

Stas Pupkov

2023-12-21

In the strategic landscape of hockey, understanding the specific roles of forwards, defensemen, and goalies is crucial. This article takes a focused look into how these positions significantly influence both the dynamics of the game and fantasy hockey outcomes. By examining each position’s unique contribution to team success, we aim to provide a clear perspective on their value. This isn’t just about tallying scores; it’s about appreciating the tactical elements each player brings to the ice and how this understanding can be leveraged in fantasy hockey.

Forwards: The Offensive Catalysts

PDO – The Dual Metric of Skill and Fortune

PDO combines on-ice shooting percentage with save percentage while a player is on the ice. It’s often used as a barometer for luck, but a consistently high or low PDO may also indicate a player’s genuine impact.

Individual Points Percentage (IPP) – The Personal Touch in Scoring

IPP shines a light on the percentage of goals a player has directly contributed to with either a goal or an assist. A high IPP suggests a player is integral to their team’s offense.

Total Points – The Core of Fantasy Scoring

Total points remain the most straightforward measure of a forward’s offensive output and are often the backbone of fantasy hockey scoring systems.

xGF% – Anticipating the Tide of Play

Expected Goals For Percentage estimates the share of goals a team is expected to score with a particular player on the ice. It helps predict future performance, which is invaluable for fantasy managers looking to make strategic plays.

In synthesizing these metrics to evaluate forwards, we’re establishing a nuanced approach to fantasy hockey analysis. PDO, IPP, Total Points, and xGF% each tell part of the story, reflecting elements of skill, contribution, and predictive power. By assigning weights to these statistics, we aim to balance their relative importance and create a composite indicator of a player’s true value. This approach allows us to move beyond traditional statistics, giving us a more dynamic assessment of players that aligns with the multi-faceted nature of hockey performance.

As we approach the graphical analysis, remember that each metric is weighted to reflect its impact on a player’s contribution. PDO, at 20%, accounts for luck and team dynamics. IPP, with the highest weight of 30%, zeroes in on a player’s direct involvement in scoring. Total Points, also at 30%, is the bread and butter of fantasy hockey, directly correlating with a player’s offensive prowess. Lastly, xGF% at 20% gauges a player’s influence on creating scoring chances. These weighted metrics combined offer a comprehensive view of a forward’s on-ice effectiveness, which we’ll visualize in the upcoming graphs for a clearer interpretation.

Graphical Analysis

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As we progress to the visual segment of our analysis, we present a trio of graphs that bring into focus the multifaceted nature of forward performance. Each graph will plot the composite score of our weighted metric, revealing the intricacies of offensive contribution across the league’s top 45 forwards, segmented into three groups for detailed scrutiny.

Graph 1: The Premier 15 – Leaders of the Pack

The first graph captures the upper echelon of forwards, the premier 15, who have set themselves apart this season. Here, we’ll see a visual representation of their superiority in weighted performance, offering insight into the blend of skill, consistency, and on-ice awareness that defines the best of the best.

Graph 2: The Pursuers – Next in Line for the Crown

Following closely are the players ranked 16 to 30, showcased in our second graph. This segment brings to light those on the cusp of breaking into the top tier, signaling potential candidates for fantasy teams looking to invest in rising talent with a promising trajectory.

Graph 3: The Contenders – The Fight for Recognition

The final graph rounds out our top 45 with players ranked 31 to 45. This group consists of contenders who, while not at the pinnacle, contribute significantly to their teams’ efforts and can be the difference-makers in a tightly contested fantasy league.

Each graph will be annotated to highlight the individual scores, providing a clear and concise reference point that reflects not just a player’s contribution but also their potential value in fantasy hockey. This trio of visual narratives will empower you as a fantasy manager, helping to identify which forwards are delivering value and which have the potential to outperform their current standings.

Our in-depth analysis concludes, leaving us with a clear perspective on the value of advanced metrics in fantasy hockey. The visual data presented offers a strategic edge, highlighting the forwards who are not only contributing but dominating on the ice. I want to extend warm holiday wishes to all. Whether you are celebrating with family, friends, or enjoying the company of your fantasy league rivals, may this season bring joy, laughter, and a bounty of fantasy points. Happy holidays, and may your strategic decisions lead you to success in both your fantasy leagues and the festive celebrations!

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