Matthew Tkachuk is pretty good these days.  I remember writing about his shot percentage when he had five goals on 119 shots on net, or 4.2%.  That wasn't sustainable, and my prediction was that the Panthers would become a scary team when – not if – the correction happened. Yeah. Since the calendar rolled over to 2024, Tkackuk has exploded for ten scores in 51 shots – 19.6% – in just 12 games, and has 22 points in those contests.  His team, not coincidentally, is 12-2-2 since a December 21 loss to St. Louis.  Maybe I should mention that teammate Sam Reinhart has 18 goals in those last 16 games.  Carter Verhaeghe has nine multi-point efforts in that span. If you drafted the Florida players, you're probably doing well in your fantasy league.

But nowhere near as well as the guy who's got Nathan MacKinnon (MVPMack?).  He's hit the scoresheet in every Avs game in 2024, having 26 points in those 12 matches, and 30 since Christmas.  It's only gotten a crescendo push this week with 11 points (7G+4A) in just his last three games.  In my Yahoo leagues, MVPMack is ranked #1 for the week, the month, and the season.  His pal Mikko Rantanen ONLY has 21 points in those 12 games since New Year's. The team has averaged 4.67 goals per game in that span.  Nikita Kucherov and MacKinnon are 14 and 15 points ahead of their nearest competitor for the Art Ross trophy.

On the other end of fantasy hockey "luck" are the Los Angeles Kings, winners of just two games in their last 15.  Their offensive stars haven't really been the issue – Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala each have 12 points over this skid, and both Anze Kopitar and Quinton Byfield have nine.  No, the issue is in net. All-Star Cam Talbot hasn't had a victorious start since Christmas, and a 3.86 GAA during this slide won't get the job done. The Kings' two wins have belonged to David Rittich, who deserves more action with his 30-day 2.15 GAA and 0.921 SV%, even after last night's mop-up duty. Rittich also won the Kings' game just before the downward spiral started. 

Saturday's matchups:

I'm going to focus a bit on the mad scramble for wildcard positioning. Yes, I know it's before the All-Star break (but just barely), and almost six weeks before the trade deadline.  Yet there are teams that need to make a statement – to themselves! – that they're all in. Win those games that you're supposed to win, or golf season will arrive early. 

No excuses:

Chicago Blackhawks @ Calgary Flames

Anaheim Ducks @ Minnesota Wild

The Flames and the Wild have identical, 21–22–5 records.  They're six points behind Nashville for that precious second wild card spot. It's doable, but the odds get longer with every loss, and these games are "must wins."  Who leads? Normally, I'd say CAPTAINS, and yes, I'd consider stacking Mikael Backlund ($4800), and alternate "C" Jonathan Huberdeau ($3800). But the hottest Flames (so sorry, pun intended) have been Blake Coleman ($5400), Nazem Kadri ($6100), and Mackenzie Weegar ($6100).  Coleman, who's tallied less than half a point per game for his 510-game career, has been white-hot, with 14 goals and 27 points in 23 contests since December 7 – not a small sample!  Jacob Markstrom ($8400) has recovered from his poor start, to post an .918 SV% in his last nine starts.  DO check with Dobber's Goalie Post, though – Dan Vladar ($8200) might get this one.

Minnesota's captain, Jared Spurgeon, is meanwhile gone for the season with upcoming hip and back surgeries, and although he's signed for three more seasons, at age 34 those years seem less certain.  The Wild have been led all season by Joel Eriksson Ek ($7300), who ranks in the Yahoo top-10 above many who we all drafted higher.  His career stats have improved from 0.36 points per game for his first five seasons to 0.74 ppg in his past 200 games. Rookie defenseman Brock Faber ($5500) has more 2024 points than Kirill Kaprizov ($8000), and comes into this Anaheim game on a six-game point streak. Kaprizov's return from injury has seen 10 points (5+5) in seven contests. Possible starter Marc-Andre Fleury ($8000) has stopped 45 of the last 47 pucks aimed into his net (.957), but his season's save percentage is just under 0.9 (again, check Goalie Post).

The Rematch:

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Winnipeg Jets

On Wednesday, Ilya Samsonov ($7600) bested Laurent Brossoit ($7600), in a game that was 47 seconds from being that rare double-shutout. I suspect Samsonov gets another start, but he'll face Connor Hellebuyck ($7800), and I might seriously play the "over 6.0 goals," just to go against the grain. These offenses haven't been lacking – for the Leafs, it was the first time since October that they were held below two goals.  Winnipeg has had some recent issues, though – just nine scores in their last six games.

For Toronto, the offense is led by the big four, although captain John Tavares ($6700) has struggled to find the scoresheet and has a 4% shot percentage in 30 days, and no points since January 6. I'll pass. Pontus Holmberg ($3300), elevated into the top-six, or Matthew Knies ($3500), projected alongside Auston Matthews ($9900), would help as inexpensive wingers.

The Jets' leading scorer in 2024, and with the most shots on goal, is Nikolaj Ehlers ($6000), but surely don't forget that Kyle Connor ($7900) is back – and has 19 shots in just four games. He's averaged over 20 minutes of ice time, suggesting he's at or near 100%. Josh Morrissey ($5900) and Gabe Vilardi ($5600), each absent Wednesday, are game-time decisions, but both are expected to play. Vladislav Namestnikov ($3600) will again center the top line – he's contributed to two of the team's last three scores, but would be a stretch for DFS.

Desperation

Montreal Canadiens @ Pittsburgh Penguins

No, I'm not going to discuss the Pens' new propensity to deposit the puck into – – NO, NOT GOING THERE!! But these two squads aren't so far behind in points, as they see the reality of the numbers – numbers of teams they need to leapfrog.  This game, going into the break, will say a lot more than just two points. 

In Pittsburgh, all has revolved around Sidney Crosby ($8300), as it should. Jake Guentzel ($7700), his top-line left wing, has one fewer point (48 vs. 49) for the season, but the right-wing spot hasn't gelled. I don't believe the answer is Bryan Rust ($5800), despite two assists and his first power-play point of the season in Friday night's shootout loss to Florida. For value, I'd consider Rickard Rakell ($4900) – 12 points in 16 games after a nightmare start. In net, Tristan Jarry ($8100) has been adequate, yet the third period has not been kind to him.  A season with a 2.56 GAA and .913 SV% should – in Pittsburgh – reflect a record better than 12-14-4.  

For Montreal, the key stat is 48, as in games played. That's three more than the Penguins, and two more than the Capitals and Devils. The 33 games after the break will fly by, and passing five other teams won't be easy. To be honest, I feel like Sean Monahan ($4600), an upcoming UFA whose salary is under $2 million, is already being shopped. Monahan is third on the Habs in scoring, and would make a fine C-2 for many teams. At 29, his injury history will limit a long-term deal, but he's proven his value this season. With Kirby Dach returning next season, the Canadiens might even talk to (gasp!) Boston.

My lineup:

Centers – Eriksson Ek and Chandler Stephenson ($4300), playing top-line center in Jack Eichel's absence

Wings – Ehlers, Coleman, and Vilardi

D-men – Faber and Brayden McNabb ($3800), for my Vegas mini-stack

Goalie – Fleury

Utility – Huberdeau

No side bet this week.

Last week, my prop bet on Colorado and Winnipeg paid 2:1, and my DFS went the way of an own goa…. NO!! STOP THAT!  (Too late, huh?)

No DFS for the all-star weekend, but nearly all teams will be back for February 10.

Readers, please put in an extra prayer for Dobber's bone marrow transplant, coming up in mid-February. He posted this on X, so I'm not breaching any confidentiality, and I'm sure he'll feel and appreciate the support.