Lining Up: Vegas’s New Second Line; Wyatt’s Surge; Monahan’s Power Play Production; Suter’s Improved Role
Peter Ryell
2024-01-30
Welcome back to another edition of Lining Up! We are back this week to go over hot line combinations and hot players who find themselves in great positions for producing. As always, keep an eye on line combinations as they can change frequently and in-game. Gamedaytweets.com and on Twitter/X is a useful tool for staying on top of the latest news.
I also had the privilege of trying to keep up with the quality writers here at DobberHockey.com in Andrew Santillo, Ben Gehrels, Rick Roos and cream of the crop host Blake Creamer on the Keeping Karlsson Fantasy Hockey Podcast. If you haven't listened to it yet, be sure to check it out.
Let's dive in.
Jonathan Marchessault – Ivan Barbashev – Nicolas Roy
In case you missed it on the Keeping Karlsson show Sunday night, the line combination of Jonathan Marchessault, Ivan Barbashev and Nicolas Roy is en fuego at the moment and all three players are contributing to the action. Marchessault leads the way with eleven points in his last seven games, bringing him up to a 66-point pace on the season which would be one of his better years since joining Vegas. He has consistently been a quality producer in peripheral categories and this year is no different as he has been averaging three and a half shots and one hit per game. Unlike previous seasons however, Marchessault is receiving a big boost in power play deployment by seeing a 69.2% of the power play share and nearly four minutes of PPTOI on average. His highest totals since joining Vegas was back in the 2018-2019 season where he had 55.8% and 2:41 respectively. Despite his PPIPP being slightly lower than his previous two seasons, Marchessault is only four power play points behind last year's total and in 26 fewer games. All underlying metrics are also within normal ranges, so if you are looking for a deadline addition to your roster, think of Marchessault as Vegas also has an excellent schedule during the playoff period with nine of their twelve games being on off-nights during this stretch.
In the shorter term, both Barbashev and Roy are worth streams. Roy is performing well with eight points in his last four games which puts him on pace for a career-high 52 points this season. He has played mostly with William Carrier and Keegan Kolesar earlier on but now being elevated to a line with Marchessault is really giving him a boost in production. If this can stick while Eichel is out with an injury, Roy should continue to produce though not to this extent.
Barbashev has 11 points in six games and although he shoots less than Marchessault, he does also provide decent category coverage with one and half shots and hits per game to go along with his current hot streak. As opposed to Roy, Barbashev is well within normal ranges of personal and 5-on-5 shoot percentages. He is actually due for more secondary assists moving forward as he is currently sitting at only 17.6% in that category. At only 49% rostered in Yahoo leagues, he is worth streaming in now while he is hot. If this line combination can hold, Barbashev may be worth holding until the playoffs for that great schedule.
Wyatt Johnston has had a decent stretch lately, posting eight points in his last seven games including a big night against Detroit last week that saw him finish with three assists. Over the last month, Johnston has quietly replaced Joe Pavelski on the top line at even strength with Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson. Since he was elevated to this plumb role, the line has been excellent with nine GF and only one GA along with a 79.3 SF% and a 72.7 CF%. Completely outplaying the opposition. Unlike some of the players to follow later in this column, the underlying metrics indicate that Johnston is actually within normal ranges for production and if anything is due for more luck coming his way. He has a low secondary assist percentage of 16.7% and a low PDO of 982, both good signs that he can continue to pick up points if he can hold down this spot on a line with Robertson and Hintz.
Pius Suter has picked up six points in his last three games, including a hat trick against St. Louis last week. He has suddenly found himself in a great spot, lining up with Brock Boeser and J.T Miller while averaging just over 19 minutes of TOI, up from his season average of 15:46. Examining his advanced metrics though, should give owners cause for concern. Currently his secondary assist rate and PDO are extremely high and his shooting percentage of 20.7% is significantly higher than his 13.2% rate from last season. All of these metrics indicate that he is currently very lucky and so this torrid pace should come back down to earth.
Regardless, Vancouver has an excellent schedule during the mess that is the combined All-Star break. They are one of only three teams to play four games and three of those games will be on off-nights. If you are looking for a stream, Suter is worth gambling on while he is hot and playing on a great line.
Sean Monahan is currently on a great hot streak with 11 points in his last seven games. He has primarily been playing with Joel Armia and Joshua Roy (before his demotion) at even strength but the bulk of his production during this streak has been on the power play. Five of the last seven points he has scored have all come on the power play where has been holding a role down on a unit with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. As noted by Brennan Des in the Ramblings yesterday, since the beginning of December, Montreal ranks 11th with 23.4% success rate. With Monahan seeing a 65.7% share of that suddenly hot unit, he is making the most of his role and converting, which is helping drive him to a near 60-point pace on the season. A slightly high personal and 5-on-5 shooting percentage indicates that Monahan will not be quite so efficient a scorer moving forward but if Montreal can have a power play in the top half of the league, that will help buoy his production.