Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

***

Given that the analytics wars have seemingly reignited over Juraj Slafkovsky experiencing a spike in his development trajectory, I'd like to reluctantly weigh in. The whole "debate" boils down to this: analytics is a tool. To get a comprehensive measure of a prospect's potential, it is necessary but not sufficient. We need it to do a good job, but it's not enough by itself. Everyone in the analytics game that I interact with knows this fact very well and states it repeatedly—including those running the models.

But then there is a large and very real segment of the hockey/fantasy communities that continuously sets up these straw man arguments about analytics, pretending that nerds are running around claiming their percentages reveal all.

Juraj Slafkovsky (LW) – 6'3 230lb 1st overall pick, rookie season shortened by injury.. 2% chance at being a star.

Mikhail Gulyayev (D) – 5'10 170lb 31st pick, 12 points in 60 KHL games.. 77% chance at being a star.

People pay for these charts. pic.twitter.com/j5qm7kIJl6

— Evan (@Shattenkirk) February 14, 2024

Stat-based models like JFresh or Hockey Prospecting that compare era-adjusted production in various leagues based on NHL equivalencies to generate a Wins Against Replacement (WAR) score or project a probability that a given player posts star-level production over their career admittedly miss a lot of critical information: the height and weight of a player, their team situation, deployment/opportunity, linemates, injuries, gaps in play (like the lost OHL season), etc. We understand this and take it with a grain of salt, recognizing that model projections nevertheless give us helpful context that would be difficult to determine otherwise.

In fact, players like Slafkovsky who don't look great in model projections (eg. Wyatt Johnston) create opportunities for interesting discussions. What did the model miss? How could it be improved? A much better question with the Mikhail Gulyayev comparison would be why does the model like Gulyayev so much? Or how historically impressive is it for an 18-year-old offensive defenceman in his Draft+1 campaign to be earning decent ice time on one of the best teams in the KHL? (Very).

Critics in the anti-analytics camp, however, seem to really enjoy pointing out these gaps again and again and again as proof that analytics is trumped-up nonsense. I'm laughing at myself a bit here for even wading into this, but it is frustrating to see takes like this still gaining traction online.

It reminds me of other cultural "debates" like criticisms of evolution. Because science has gaps, it is wrong. But that is just a misunderstanding of how inductive reasoning operates: it provides probabilities, not certainties. That's just the name of the game. That is why we have theories. And sure, Matvei Michkov generating a 99% star probability is just a theory too. Our past experience of players who have produced at the level that Michkov has produced in the leagues that he has played in suggests that he will do very well once he makes the NHL. Is it certain? Of course not. There are always Nail Yakupovs and Nikita Filatovs. But they don't mean that models don't work or that analytics is garbage.

I think the most disingenuous aspect of most criticisms of analytics are that they usually involve implying that other ways of assessing player development—like the eye test—are sufficient on their own. The thing about watching prospects in particular is that anyone in a junior league on an NHL trajectory should really stand out, even to most casual observers. They will move faster, shoot harder, deke more successfully, make impressive passes, maintain possession better, and so on than their peers. And yet even they might top out as a fringe fourth-liner in the NHL, which can be hard to fathom sometimes. This league is the best of the best of the best, and really good hockey players—who might pass an eye test with flying colours—usually are still not good enough to play here.

The hardest part of scouting revolves around the translatability of a given skillset. A prospect in the WHL might seem to have a wicked shot, but do they have intelligent shot selection? Can they get their shot off quickly and without a lot of space to work with? Are their shooting mechanics sound? Can they change the shot angle right before releasing? Personally, although I'm learning, I am light years away from having a solid grasp on the particulars of translatability, and I think the majority of hockey fans and fantasy managers are as well.

That's where analytics gives us a serious leg up on understanding prospect trajectory. A necessary but not sufficient leg up! Because I then try to supplement that data by evaluating clips of game action, surveying expert rankings and opinions, digging into scouting reports, and spending time with manually tracked microstats (All Three Zones, Mitch Brown & Lassi Alanen) that reveal ways that players meaningfully impact the game over and above scoresheet contributions. The more angles you can get on the same question (ie. prospect upside), the more accurate you can become when assessing the value of your assets.

Okay, debate settled? Let's move on.

***

I want to highlight the Dobber Prospects' Mid-Season Top 64 Ranking for the 2024 NHL Draft that was released a couple days ago. Shout out to the DP scouting team for their hours and hours of hard work on this!

Scanning the rankings through a fantasy lens, the top six in this draft seem like slam-dunk offensive options. Macklin Celibrini (99% star probability) is a transition monster, Ivan Demidov (also 99%) has the puck on a string at all times, Berkly Catton (59%) is a wizard with game-changing skill, Cayden Lindstrom (26%) is a 6-4 beast on skates, Zeev Buium (73%) is a complete defender posting historic totals in college, and Zayne Parekh (84%) is a supreme offensive defenceman.

After that, there are still a number of high-end options of course, but at this stage, they seem to have more notable red flags from a fantasy perspective, whether that's having more of a shutdown focus (Sam Dickinson), questions about their upside (Konsta Helenius), or a concerning trait or two (Artyom Levshunov's turnovers or Igor Chernyshov's simplicity).

***

Some quick hits on players outside the DP Top 10 that intrigue me for fantasy:

#11 – Michael Brandsegg-Nygård seems like one of these "high floor, strong defensively, questions about ultimate upside" players who I have begun keying in on more and more. Recent examples mentioned in this column include Leeni Hameenaho (NJD), Juri Kulich (BUF), and Jimmy Snuggerud (STL).

#12 – Anton Silyayev (6-7, 207 lbs) will appeal to the "bigger is better" crowd, but he seems more in the shutdown mold of Sam Dickinson for my taste. Who wants to bet that he will be drafted by the Arizona Coyotes? With Dmitry Simashev (6-4, 201), Daniil But (6-5, 203), and Maveric Lamoureux (6-7, 198), they are assembling the team of monsters that played Michael Jordan and the Looney Toons.

#13 – Liam Greentree. More and more buzz about this kid. He has NHL size (6-2, 200 lbs), a ton of tools and versatility, and his trajectory has taken a sharp upward turn over the course of the year.

#19 – Andrew Basha. Speedy, dynamic playmaker and zone-entry machine. Could be the Reily Heidt of this year's crop and fall further than he should.

Finally, just an interesting note about the 2024 draft: there are at least three siblings of future NHL stars, all of whom appear to be lesser versions of their brothers. Luke Misa (#21, brother of Michael Misa, 2025 eligible), Adam Jiricek (#22, David Jiricek), and Cole Hutson (#51, Lane Hutson). Don't get overly excited when you see these last names shuffling through in June. Dig into their scouting reports and decide for yourself, but all three of these guys will likely not do as well as their better-known brothers despite the family name sticker price.

***

I understand comparisons are kinda silly, but here's one just for fun: Celibrini and Demidov at the top of the 2024 class feels like a less high-powered version of 2023's Connor Bedard and Matvei Michkov. Yet while Bedard is in another tier altogether, it is not absurd to suggest that Demidov has risen into Michkov territory.

Michkov vs Demidov is still a worthy debate. They play different games, but they both have special skills. Demidov is flashier and plays with more energy. https://t.co/znFQWpkSGE

— David St-Louis (@DavidSt_Louis) February 13, 2024

This comparison first crossed my mind last August when I dug into Alanen's tracking data and noticed that Demidov actually posted better results than Michkov at the same age in key categories like Expected Primary Points, Advantages Created, Shot Contributions, Offensive Involvement, and Game Score. With the heavy caveat that Demidov has spent his draft year in the MHL while Michkov was in the VHL and primarily KHL (and not getting meaningful playing time until he moved to Sochi), Demidov finished first in the entire dataset in five of those six categories, with Michkov consistently a few places behind. They are definitely both special players and valuable fantasy assets.

***

It has been well-publicized how long of a wait Michkov will be for the Flyers before he (probably) pulls a Kirill Kaprizov and crosses over to become an instant NHL superstar. Will Demidov also be a three-year wait? Something to consider when heading into your fantasy drafts in June.

After all, news broke this past week that Danila Yurov (MIN) is signing a one-year contract to stay in Russia until at least March 2025. While this is hopefully best for his development in the long term, those of us who own him in fantasy were dismayed that we're not going to see him next to Kaprizov and Marco Rossi next year. The Yurov watch continues…

Interview with #mnwild prospect Danila Yurovhttps://t.co/y06uxs3T44

— Hockey News Hub (@HockeyNewsHub) February 16, 2024

To counterbalance that point, though, while it's more exciting for North American fans to see their favourite prospect lighting up the AHL like Logan Stankoven (DAL) than toiling in Russia like Yurov and Arseny Gritsyuk (NJD), the development timeline might not be as far apart as it feels.

At the top of Yurov's 2022 class, for instance, Logan Cooley (ARI), Pavel Mintyukov (ANA), Simon Nemec (NJD), and Kevin Korchinski (CHI) have eased into the NHL this year, but Shane Wright (SEA), Joakim Kemell (NAS), Matt Savoie (BUF), and David Jiricek (CBJ) are still primarily in the AHL, Lane Hutson (MON), Rutger McGroarty (WPG), and Cutter Gauthier (ANA) are still in college, Denton Mateychuk (CBJ) is still in junior, and so on. By the time the dust settles a few years from now, Yurov's NHL timeline might look pretty similar to most of his top 2022 peers.

Returning to Michkov for a moment, he's basically already completed one of his infamous three years (assuming he doesn't re-sign). From the 2023 class, Bedard (CHI), Adam Fantilli (CBJ), and Zach Benson (BUF) made the NHL right away, of course, but they are kind of special cases, and Benson in particular (29-point pace) will need some time to acclimate. Almost all the other top players from 2023 are still in college or junior this year. Next year, which will be Year Two of the Michkov contract, many will likely return to where they're playing now, and some will graduate to the AHL. Then in 2025-26, maybe they start to make the NHL while Michkov finishes his KHL contract with a fourth year of high-level professional hockey against men. He then comes over to North America and is ready to go right off the hop.

Again, despite how much hype that Michkov contract got as a serious red flag, that development timeline does not feel overly exceptional. The impatience is real but maybe everything is progressing just fine. With 37 points in 43 KHL games at age 19, Michkov currently leads all prospects outside the NHL with a PNHLe of 129 according to the Rank King app. Right behind him? Buium, Celibrini, and Parekh.

***

Thanks for reading! Follow me on X @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.