DFS Saturday: Leafs Still OK After Trade Deadline
Brad Hayward
2024-03-09
The trade deadline.
Yes, this year's deadline was yesterday. Wow.
But let's look at an equally chaotic trade season from 2022-23, and see whether those gotta-do-it deals are worth it. The Vegas Golden Knights would be a great place to start – on February 26, they acquired Ivan Barbashev in a one-for-one deal that sent Zach Dean to St. Louis. Dean is a 21-year-old from the Quebec Junior League, now in his first year in the AHL. I'd call this a major win for the Knights. They also got Teddy Blueger and Jonathan Quick, both important cogs in their Cup run, for very little assets lost. Their opponent in the Final, the Florida Panthers, made no significant moves near the deadline – but maybe picking up Matthew Tkachuk in the offseason turned out well.
So how about the others? The New York Islanders beat the last-minute rush and grabbed the biggest plum, Bo Horvat, on January 30. Yes, it helped them to a wild-card spot, but long-term? Unanswered thus far, as the Isles scratch for the playoffs again. The Rangers were big players too, acquiring Vladimir Tarasenko, Patrick Kane, and Niko Mikkola for Sammy Blais and several conditional picks – but a year later they have memory of a stinging first round exit and none of those rental players. Boston also went all-in, trading for Tyler Bertuzzi and Dmitri Orlov and sending out their first round selections for both the last NHL draft and the next one. Bruins' fans want to forget how that playoff series ended.
I'd say, looking back, that the biggest winners were Vegas (duh, Stanley Cup champions!), and the San Jose Sharks (!!) For Timo Meier, their rebuild added wingers Fabian Zetterlund and Quentin Musty (draft pick #26, and 78 points in 45 games for Sudbury in the OHL), and defenseman Shakir Mukhamadullin, who looks to be an NHL regular next season. Nikita Ohotyuk had a taste of the big club before being shipped to Calgary, and there is yet to be a 2024 second-round pick to add to that haul.
The large majority of the players traded for from March 1 – 10, 2023 are no longer rostered to the same team. This season, we'll see. There are plenty of reviews as to the contenders, but also take a moment to look at those teams rebuilding.
DFS Matchups for Saturday
Again, I'm using the DraftKings Classic 7 pm Eastern game. You get a pretend $50,000 to spend on a lineup of nine players. The elite guys are sometimes up to $10,000, and the minimum per player is $2500. After a goaltender, it's generally an average of just above $5000 per skater – more for a star, and then you search for a value (cheaper) pick to balance. Trust me, the odds are that you'll lose (80-85%), but somehow, I'm running in the black for the season, picking out which games seem like fertile ground and looking for hot combinations.
Tonight's early game in Canada, Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens. Montreal has been underrated before – most notably in the 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs – but this is a mismatch. The Leafs come off losing twice this week to the Boston Bruins, with their big guns mostly silenced. That won't happen tonight. The only question is which of the big four gets the points? I'd stack William Nylander ($8300) and Max Domi ($3300) from the second line, along with Ilya Samsonov ($8400), who's fighting for "his" net despite having an 11-2-0 record since January 21. Thirteen starts, not a small sample… Joseph Woll (also $8400) surrendered four goals in each of those Boston losses, yet the memory of the rookie's play from November, and his pre-injury .916 SV% seem to be overhyped. Defense has been a Toronto soft spot, and the Ilya Lyubushkin (out) addition might not be the answer. As for the Habs, my concern is that defensive youth – inexperience – has to face Auston Matthews ($9800) and the first power play.
Sticking with Canada, the late game of Winnipeg Jets @ Vancouver Canucks certainly looks like it's worth the price of admission, or at least streaming from my laptop. The two likeliest Vezina winners this season and a contest that I see as 50/50 leads me to watch, not wager.
South of the border, New York Rangers @ St. Louis Blues in the early window? For the home team, I'd consider Pavel Buchnevich ($5400), who's probably thrilled that his life WASN'T turned upside down by a trade yesterday. The ex-Ranger has 191 points in 197 games for the Blues, and St. Louis may well be higher in the Western Conference next season, having not disassembled (is that a word?). The Blue SHIRTS will be favored though, and to bet on Mika Zibanejad ($6500), Alexis Lafreniere ($4900) and K'Andre Miller ($3500) would be a great stack. I'll take a goalie here, as St. Louis has tended to have limited offense, just 13 scores in their last seven matches. Igor Shesterkin ($8300) has lost his last two decisions – three goals given up in each – but his past month's save percentage is still .943.
Is the most improved team again, the Vegas Golden Knights? Knights host the Detroit Red Wings Saturday – an extreme of contrasting trade deadline styles. Vegas added Tomas Hertl (on IR), Noah Hanifin ($4300), and Anthony Mantha ($3400). Detroit traded Klim Kostin for Radim Simek, yeah. Do you believe in obtaining the best players, or keeping team chemistry? Tonight may answer this, 2024-style. The hottest Knight is Shea Theodore ($6300) with ten assists in eight contests since his return from injury. He'll be motivated to not lose ice time to Hanifin. The Red Wings, on the back side of two consecutive nights, would be a tough wager.
My lineup:
Centers – Domi and Zibanejad
Wings – Mantha, Nylander, Lafreniere
Defense – Theodore and Rasmus Sandin ($3700), facing Chicago
Goalie – Samsonov
Utility skater – ageless Claude Giroux ($5100), taking advantage of the reshuffle in San Jose.
Again, the DFS lineup last Saturday doubled my bet. I put in my lightning-in-a-bottle picks of Tyson Foerster and Jack Roslovic (now a Ranger), along with four Dallas Stars, and the "Star" was Foerster, with two goals and seven shots. Listing Theodore today hopefully continues the trend.
Non-hockey news – clocks move forward at 2 am (depending on where you live). Less sleep in March, but you'll get it back in the fall.