Capped: Incoming Raises for Seider, Raymond, Necas, and Luukkonen
Andrew Santillo
2024-03-28
Welcome back CapFriendlies! Fantasy playoffs are full go in most leagues and if you're like me, the focus right now each day is looking really no further than next week. However, if you're one of those in a cap league, short, mid, and long-term are always top of mind. For this week's Capped I want to look at players that may be on rosters out there, who come July 1st, are going to be in for a payday. I'm not so much talking Sam Reinhart or Steven Stamkos; those are names we're well aware are going to get paid this summer. I'm talking about younger players that are in line to sign, and potentially sign long term.
Moritz Seider – D – Detroit – 22 years old
Contract: $863K – Expiring ELC, upcoming RFA
GP G A PTS PPP TOI PPTOI SOG HIT BKS
72 8 30 38 17 22:09 2:25 116 166 177
Moritz Seider might be one of my favorite young d-men in the league and was one that I targeted in most of my leagues this season. Peripherals are great and when Detroit isn't busy putting Shaye Gostisbehere on the top power play to make us all go mad, Seider gets deployed on the top unit to help with offensive production. If you're rostering him in a keeper or especially a capped league, first off congratulations to you, but next is that this is a player who you are going to need to make room for this summer.
Him being a defenseman, along with his age, I just have a hunch here that he's not going to be signing a four- or five-year bridge contract, instead I'd imagine that Detroit is going to want to take him into his age-29 or age-30 seasons and that would mean signing a new classic in the NHL, the eight-year deal. Somehow in the NHL we seem to settle on eight-years often, not sure how that came to be, but let's use it as a benchmark here. For Seider, I can honestly see him getting the Owen Power contract, but let's pop on that extra year to make it eight years by $8.45M. If I'm Detroit, this is ultimately where I'm trying to land with Seider and lucky for me, I'll have the cap space to do it as I'm going to guess here that Detroit is going to have around $28M in potential spending. This would be a large bump for Seider but just watching him and what we've seen already, I think this is ultimately where we land.
Lucas Raymond – R – Detroit – 21 years old
Contract: $925K – Expiring ELC, upcoming RFA
GP G A PTS PPP TOI PPTOI SOG HIT BKS
72 24 36 60 15 17:28 2:47 134 58 24
I don't know if there's a younger player out there that I go so back and forth on. Last season I felt like I was out on Lucas Raymond for what Detroit probably projects him out to be, and then comes this season where I have both Seider and Alex DeBrincat in my main fantasy league and all of a sudden, I loved Raymond. It was well founded as the Detroit power play was humming along and maybe the player I was iffy on had come around? Last season in the third quarter of the season he netted just three points and this season it's 17, but I still feel in-different at times just depending on the week.
So what does this contract look like? I can say almost for certain that the Detroit front office has a high ceiling on him, and given his age and the production that we've seen at times that's valid. Would I be at all surprised if come July it's the Nick Suzuki contract of eight years by somewhere in the neighborhood of $8.5M? No, not at all. That said, for some reason here my bridge contract senses are tingling, hey Parker. I do think there's a world here where it's like a four year by maybe $7.85M? The argument against this is that clearly Detroit believes in him as a top line player, and the Wings right now will have the cap space to make this happen and assemble a good core of forwards and defensemen.
Martin Necas – R – Carolina – 25 years old
Contract: $3M – Expiring two-year $3M, upcoming RFA, arb eligible
GP G A PTS PPP TOI PPTOI SOG HIT BKS
68 22 29 51 12 17:31 2:05 200 73 28
I don't know why, but I felt like Martin Necas had two hat-tricks on the season. He only has one but watching his play and the Carolina Hurricanes as a club, he's gotten close more often than not this season. He's not a name that probably comes to mind as we approach the summer, but he’s highly rostered in fantasy and could be interesting as to what his cap hit looks like as we go into next season.
What makes Necas interesting here is that he is arbitration eligible, and I'd be curious if the Hurricanes want to go down that road with him. If that's the case, we probably won't know a number for a while, or the two sides avoid it all together on something like a two-year deal. Carolina has the cap space to make signings happen this offseason, which is great timing for them, but given their depth this could get intriguing here. Necas is at $3M now, and I'd certainly think he would demand double that, so if Carolina decides to walk, they could, as Necas would demand above the $3.5M needed to do so, meaning that Necas would then become a UFA. I don't expect something long-term here and I can't see an offer sheet coming but believe me, I've been surprised before when it comes to offer sheets and the Carolina Hurricanes. Montreal looking at you, let's make this summer spicy.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen – G – Buffalo – 25 years old
Contract: $837K – Expiring ELC, upcoming RFA, arb eligible
GP W GAA SV% QS% SO
47 24 2.57 0.911 63.8 5
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been a steal for this Sabres club and honestly one of the reasons, if not the reason, I read that Buffalo is still "in the hunt" day in and day out. Through his play this season, he's also separated himself from fellow goaltender Eric Comrie, with the only question mark being how much Buffalo believes in Devon Levi moving forward.
I'll be honest here, UPL could sit down this summer with the Sabres and probably get whatever raise he has coming to him, and I think the Sabres would listen and want to meet him on a deal. It's very possible here that we get the notification come July that UPL signed a six-year deal at $4M, with one more season after this one for the Sabres to figure out what the plan is for Levi. If you're rostering UPL, congrats on getting on the train when you did because he might be at a manageable number going into future seasons at that position.
*Salary Cap data from CapFriendly
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