Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. Juraj Slafkovsky has consistently been one of the top-searched players on Frozen Tools for the past week or two. I thought at first this might be due to the number of Habs fans who frequent this site, but on further examination at time of writing, Slafkovsky was riding a nine-game point streak with 10 points over that stretch. Whether you think Slafkovsky was a legitimate first overall pick, he is at least contributing to fantasy teams at age 19. Being 21 percent rostered on Yahoo (at time of writing) seems a bit low for what he’s been doing lately. (mar29)

2. On Thursday, Evgeni Malkin scored two power-play goals in the Penguins’ 3-2 win over Columbus. Those goals were Malkin’s first in seven games. Remove the shortened 2020-21 season and Malkin has now scored at least 20 goals every season since 2012-13, when he played just 31 games. The 37-year-old Malkin is no longer elite, but he should still be rostered in most fantasy leagues. (mar29)

3. Credit to Sidney Crosby who continues to compete hard even though his team’s playoff chances are virtually zero. If he is not signed to an extension in the offseason, “will he return to Pittsburgh” will for sure be a story next season. His contract is set to expire at the end of next season. (mar29)

4. Tristan Jarry is without a win or quality start in each of his last four games, with really bad starts in three of those games. In addition, Jarry has just two wins in all of March with a dreadful 4.44 GAA and .870 SV% for the month as well. Jarry also leads the league with 13 RBS (really bad starts). During the fantasy playoffs, dropping Jarry in single-season leagues is advisable, since you don’t have time to be patient. You might have better luck with a streaming option at this point – maybe even Alex Nedeljkovic. (mar29)

5. Tage Thompson qualifies as a bust for those who drafted him early (Yahoo ADP 12-14), but he is at least producing down the stretch. Over his last 10 games, Thompson has eight goals and 14 points, which more closely resembles the pace that he scored at much of last season. A point per game is attainable for Tage, but I wouldn’t project any higher over a full season.

Thompson’s linemate Alex Tuch assisted on two of Thompson’s goals. Tuch now has seven consecutive games with at least one assist, with nine assists (and one goal) over that span.

The third man on that line is JJ Peterka, who scored another goal and now has goals in four consecutive games. Peterka has also taken five shots in three of those four games. In just his second full season, Peterka already has 26 goals, which means that 30 is not completely out of the question. He’s also just three shots on goal shy of 200. Peterka is having a very under-the-radar effective fantasy season. (mar30)

6. The Flyers were finally able to bring goalie Ivan Fedotov over from Russia. You may recall that Fedotov signed a one-year, entry-level deal in the summer of 2022, but he was forced into military service in Russia shortly after. Likely headed to the playoffs, the Flyers could use the goaltending help. Neither Cal Petersen nor Felix Sandstrom appears to be the answer as Samuel Ersson‘s backup, and I’m not even sold that Ersson can take the Flyers on a deep playoff run.

With just seven games remaining, the 6-8 Fedotov will probably receive only 2-3 regular-season starts at the most, as he may need some time to get acclimatized to North America. He might be worth keeping on your watch list anyway, as Philly has the fourth-easiest schedule by opponent record according to the Schedule Planner on Frozen Tools. Keep in mind that Fedotov will be a free agent this offseason, so his value going forward will depend on where he lands. He’s also 27 years old, which is older than the typical prospect goalie. (mar30)

7. Here’s an early Sunday stream for you: Dakota Joshua made his return to the Canucks’ lineup on Thursday after being out over a month with a hand injury. Before the injury, Joshua was on pace for nearly 40 points. Despite the injury, he should be able to reach the 200-hit mark for the second consecutive season. Add him if you are in a bangers league, as he is back on a highly effective third line with Conor Garland and Teddy Blueger. Garland also figures to get a lot of attention on Sunday, and rightfully so. He has five points over his last five games.

With the Ducks’ scoring woes in mind, don’t be surprised if Arturs Silovs receives the start in net for the Canucks. Thatcher Demko isn’t expected to be ready, while Casey DeSmith has started seven consecutive games and may be due for a break. Silovs has not played an NHL game this season, although he played in five games for the Canucks last season before an impressive World Championship performance for Latvia. If DeSmith leaves as a free agent this offseason, Silovs could be a full-time NHLer as early as next season. (mar30)

8. If you held onto Frederik Andersen while he was out of the lineup, you’re now reaping the rewards. Andersen has wins and quality starts in all seven games he has played in since returning. Moreover, he has a 1.14 GAA and .957 SV% over that span. The Canes are among that larger-than-normal group of teams at the top of the league standings, which makes them a strong bet to win each game. As a result, Andersen should be considered one of fantasy hockey’s top goalies at the moment. (mar29)

9. Since being acquired by Calgary, Andrei Kuzmenko had seven goals and three assists in 19 games entering Saturday action, which is a similar pace to what he had in Vancouver with similar ice time and power-play time. His 73-point first season isn’t likely the norm for him, and he may not ever attain that again. But at least he can score some nice goals. (mar29)

10. We’ve had a few articles on Dobber Hockey this past week advising you to add a Sabre or two for the coming week. One name that wasn’t mentioned is Connor Clifton, which is likely due to his lack of scoring. I added Clifton this week for his hits and blocks, as his combined number (277) was within the top 30 in the league at time of writing. Sure enough, Clifton scored a goal while taking three shots on Wednesday, but he registered just one hit and no blocks in that game. That could have been because the Sabres were forced to think offense after allowing five goals in the first period. (mar29)

11. Jack Quinn returned to the Buffalo lineup on Wednesday night after missing two months due to a lower-body surgery. Considering the time he missed to start the season, it has been a brutally unlucky stretch of health for the young winger.

With just three weeks left in the season, Quinn has time to get his game back up to speed and head into the offseason for a normal training schedule. It will be interesting to see where he lands in fantasy drafts come September considering his upside but his lack of sample this season. (mar28)

12. Troy Terry was dropped recently in one of my leagues, his 59-point-pace with next to no peripherals has been disappointing this year compared to his 70-point-pace the last two years. Chalk that up to some bad puck luck with a low team shooting percentage happening along with a drop in his secondary assist rate. I’ll be buying/drafting Terry as a 70-point player in the fall. (mar27)

13. Earlier on in the year I traded Trent Frederic one-for-one in exchange for Rickard Rakell, and I thought it was a clear win at the time. All Frederic has done since is perform as one of the best third-liners in the league, so I’m doubting myself a little there, especially with the outlook cloudier in Pittsburgh now due to the playoff miss this year. Aside from Rakell’s hot streak from mid-December to mid-January this year, he has been a disappointment, looking like a 30-point player most of the time. (mar27)

14. If Hits are what you need then Jeremy Lauzon just returned from an injury, and is running away with the league lead for Hits this year. He’s in a chase for Hits record, but would need to average about six per game to be able to get there. He’s certainly aware of the chase, and that might give him some incentive to get there. He could be an even bigger factor in the Hits column than usual the rest of the way. (mar27)

15. A steal for the Avalanche, locking up a young and upcoming backup for less than $1 million a season, especially considering the cap crunch they’re going to have over the next few years. Justus Annunen will be a worthwhile own next year in fantasy leagues where quality is rewarded over quantity. (mar27)

16. Ahead of last Sunday’s game against the Jets, Washington recognized T.J. Oshie for reaching the 1000-game milestone recently. He rose to the occasion, tallying two assists as the Caps won 3-0. I’m sure many wrote Oshie off after he opened this season with just two points in his first 19 appearances. Surprisingly, the 37-year-old forward turned things around in a big way and had 19 points in his last 25 games – a 62-point pace – at time of writing. (mar25)

17. Brent Burns is on pace for just 43 points this season – a significant downgrade from the 61 he tallied last year. He recently turned 39, so age-related decline is a valid concern going forward. Despite leading Carolina’s defenseman in power-play opportunity, Burns doesn’t lead the team’s blueliners in overall scoring. That honor goes to Brady Skjei, who is clicking at a 46-point pace this year. I would propose Skjei as a potential successor for Burns on the power play next season, but Skjei is a free agent this summer and has likely priced himself out of Carolina. Perhaps Dmitry Orlov steps into a bigger role next year? Or maybe the Hurricanes are stuck with another year of Burns on PP1. (mar25)

18. Anyone who reads these Ramblings regularly knows that I often discuss defensemen. The position has changed so much over the last 15 years – and especially the last 5-6 seasons – that it’s fascinating to watch evolve in real time.

Let’s look at some defensemen who’ve changed their possession exit rates in a big way from 2022-23. Being able to get the puck up the ice, and on the stick of you or your teammates rather than fumbling around the neutral zone, can help create offencse, and that’s important for fantasy managers. The tracking data is from AllThreeZones and supplementary data is from either Natural Stat Trick or Frozen Tools. This is all at 5-on-5 and because we’re tracking across two seasons, there are no rookies from 2023-24, and players with significant injuries (Dougie Hamilton) are also excluded.

(At time of writing:)

The Big Improvements

It should be noted that large improvements rarely come from the top producers; the top producers are who they are because they’re already great in most offensive areas. It is notable that the four defensemen who’s relative change in zone exit percentage with possession reached double digits were all with the same team last year:

Interestingly, two of the four players (Jonas Brodin and Nick Seeler) saw their respective team’s goal rates rise from last season while the others two fell (Ryan McDonagh and Jonas Siegenthaler). (mar26)

[Follow the link for the full analysis…]

19. The Consistent Performers

Of the 132 defensemen in our sample, just seven have a zone exit possession rate of at least 80% in both seasons, which would be around the 95^th percentile or higher. Funny enough, most of the names we’d expect to see – Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Victor Hedman – are not on the consistency list (though they aren’t that far behind). There are a couple names we’d expect, but most of these names are probably a surprise.

Seeing Owen Power‘s name is very interesting. As has often been stated, Buffalo overhauled their offense from 2022-23 to be a better defensive team in 2023-24. However, their goals per 60 minutes are still over 3.0 with Power on the ice and he’s the only member of the Sabres blue line that can boast that. Buffalo’s goal rates are much higher when Tage Thompson or Dylan Cozens have Power behind them than anyone else. There is a lot for fantasy managers to be excited about, though having Rasmus Dahlin and Bowen Byram provides roadblocks to meaningful power play time. (mar26)

[Follow the link for the full analysis…]

20. A lot of digital ink has been spilled about Moritz Seider in his young career. He went higher in the 2019 Draft than expected, he was the Calder Trophy winner in 2021-22, he’s on his way to his third straight 40-point season, and he also gets the toughest usage of any defenseman in the league (and toughest on Detroit’s blue line for his third straight season). What his true value is depends on who you ask, but this stood out: Seider’s results in 2023-24 are much worse with Jake Walman than without him. Considering Seider has skated over 70% of his 5-on-5 time with Walman, maybe there’s something to his numbers appearing worse than they really are.

Seider will be a great multi-cat fantasy option for years to come; he gets top-pair minutes, he gets meaningful power play time, and he puts up fantastic peripherals. The question is whether he can take that next step to being a regular 50- to 60-point (or higher) multi-cat option like Rasmus Dahlin, or whether he’ll just be a reliable 40-point multi-cat option like MacKenzie Weegar. Both are very good fantasy options, but it’s the difference between very good and elite, and that matters to us. The team that builds up around Seider may tell more of the story than he will. (mar26)

21. There are just three weeks left in the NHL regular season. With the fantasy week starting this Monday, April 1^st, teams will have 10 or fewer games left on the docket. Fantasy managers that are clawing for a top finish in roto leagues or wrapping up their head-to-head formats need to know where to target and where to avoid. Andrew Santillo’s weekly ‘Looking Ahead’ column is a good place to start, and consider today’s Ramblings supplemental material.

Given some trends with player usage and the upcoming schedules, here are players to consider (or avoid) in a variety of formats for the final fantasy push. The Schedule Planner in our Frozen Tools section will be a helpful resource for us, as will the Report Generator. Other data from Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated. Let’s start with the two weeks from April 1^st – April 14^th. No team in those two weeks plays more than seven games, and over half the league plays that many, so games-played advantages will be minimal. (mar28)

[Follow the link for the full analysis…]

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Yes, we’re already thinking about the real playoffs. So it’s a good time to mention that Dobber’s 2024 Interactive Playoff Draft List can now be purchased. You can make your own picks for series winners, or go with Dobber’s picks if you’re not sure. Purchase yours here. Keep in mind that the actual spreadsheet will be available for use in early April.

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Have a good week, folks!

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