Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Before I dive into the usual format, I wanted to link to this thread. The gist is that someone thinks of a real life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going. To give you a sense of what it's like, here's a set of clues for a player. See how many clues it takes for you to figure out who the player is. The answer will be provided at the end of the column. Unless folks disagree (drop a comment if so), I'll make this a regular part of the column.

CLUE #1 – I'm a retired North America forward

CLUE #2 – I played in the NHL as a teen

CLUE #3 – Despite debuting as a teen, I bounced between the NHL and AHL for four seasons before becoming a full time NHL player at age 23

CLUE #4 – Although had two point per game seasons, and four others with a scoring pace of 60+ points, I finished my career at age 36 back in the AHL

CLUE #5 – Although I was a three time 20+ goal scorer, I only averaged 2+ SOG per game once in my entire career

CLUE #6 – I was very adept on the power play, with 23+ PPPts per season in a span of six of seven seasons

CLUE #7 – In the season where I scored the most points of my career, my shooting percentage was above 25%

CLUE #8 – I was a center, but very bad at faceoffs, only finishing with a FOW% above 50% in one of my 17 seasons

CLUE #9 – I had six Shorthanded points in my entire career, all coming in the same season

CLUE #10 – I played over 1000 career NHL games, for the following teams, although not in this exact order: Dallas, Washington, Montreal, Nashville, and Phoenix

CLUE #11 – I'm among the top 50 of all time in single season QMJHL scoring leaders

Hopefully you got it. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who it is. Now onto the regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming.

Topic #1 – Who is the "real" Michael Bunting? He was a great multicat option. Is he still? Where will he fit on Pittsburgh next season?

Already 28 years old, Bunting just passed his 200 game breakout threshold this season, due to having logged five full seasons in the AHL. He impressed in limited duty in 2020-21 with the Coyotes, before going to Toronto, where he scored at a 65 point pace due to spending a good chunk of time alongside the best of Toronto's best, and despite barely 15:00 of ice time per game and limited man advantage minutes. After inking a UFA deal with Carolina, he didn't even last a full season there, but now has landed in Pittsburgh. Yeah, quite a whirlwind!

That is a lot of movement in not a lot of time. Also, Bunting isn't topping the 16:00 per game mark this season, just as he didn't in 2022-23 and 2021-22, and this despite earning $4.5M this season, which, while not a huge dollar figure, isn't exactly nothing either.

Looking at his numbers, his SH% has held nearly steady, as has SOG per game. He's seeing a lot of time on the PP this season, translating to 18 PPPts. His IPP on the PP is 52.9%, meaning he's getting PPPts largely due to his linemates, as further supported by him only having six PPGs, and of the 60 forwards with more PPPts than him, only ten have fewer PPGs. Since coming to the Pens, he has two PPPts in 15 games, which is well below his rate at Carolina despite taking the ice for more than 50% of available PP minutes in all but three of his games as a Pen.

The good news is in over half his games as a Pen he has three or more SOG. That bodes well for the future. But he also has been a plus player in just two games as a Pen; yet ironically that might help keep him on a scoring line, since can you really put a player who is as minus as he is on a defensively-focused line? I don't think so. Also, he's hitting again, right at one per game since becoming a Pen.

Looking at his other metrics, Bunting's IPP is an okay 63.20 for 2023-24 overall, and he has only eight secondary assists compared to 21 primary. Normally that would signify he's due to get more assists in the normal course, but last season he had a similar rate, suggesting he just isn't a playmaker. His team SH% at 5×5 for the season is 7.4%, which is quite low. I'd be more concerned if, in the face of such a low team SH%, his IPP was lower or he still wasn't shooting; however, seeing it that low is a sign that things should improve.

I think Bunting is all but assured to be on a scoring line as a Pen, since he really can't function in any other capacity. Whether he gets PP1 time is unclear though, which could hurt him. But he does appear to be hitting and shooting more, although he's also light on PIM. Still, I think he is someone I'd expect to be at or near a 60 point pace in 2024-25, with a 2.5-3 SOG per game rate and around one hit per contest. So basically, better than what we saw from him this season as a Cane, but not at the level he was when on the Leafs

Topic #2 – A GM who is in more of a "win now" mindset is considering whether to trade his Connor Bedard for Jack Hughes. Is that enough for Bedard in a league where skater categories are Goals, Assists, GWG, PPP, Shots, Blocks, Hits?

There's no question Bedard has done some impressive things to date and his future may be the brightest of any young player in the league. Let's also not forget we're in an era when a player's accomplishments are magnified due to things like the 24 hours news cycle, social media and online resources. The last time a player came into the league with this much anticipation was Connor McDavid, but that was ten years ago, and the landscape was nothing like it is today.

What I'm trying to get at is when McDavid was a rookie, he was likewise considered a player around whom a fantasy team could be built, and a guaranteed future superstar. He did indeed deliver on the hype. But I don't remember the idea of trading McDavid being considered entirely out of the question as it seems to be with Bedard. I think it's not due to there being higher expectations for Bedard, but instead because he's been hyped all the more and for a lot longer than McDavid was.

What I'm driving at is, trades where a team parts with Bedard can and should be considered. I'd be wary of them, and likely most should be rightfully rejected. Certain players, or packages of players, might be enough to prompt a team to deal Bedard.

Where does Hughes fit on that scale? Before he got hurt this season, he had 20 points in ten games. But after he returned, he tallied 24 points in his next 22 games before getting hurt yet again, after which he's merely a point per game player in 28 games. Who's to say what would've happened if Hughes hadn't been hurt not once but twice? Those first ten games were electric. Not only that, but last season was technically his age 20 season, and he posted 99 points while averaging 4.3 SOG per game as a center. Only one other center in NHL history has posted more points while averaging more SOG at that age or younger, and it's Wayne Gretzky. Combine that with what we saw in the first ten games of 2023-24, and I think a healthy Hughes could be among the best fantasy assets, period.

Also, Hughes is four years older than Bedard, which is more good than bad in that he's still very young, such that owning him could result in a decade of top tier production, yet he's also gone through his learning curve, from which we can't be sure how long it'll take Bedard to truly emerge. Hughes really is in a fantasy sweet spot, whereas Bedard likely will need another season or two, or even longer, to really ramp up. Let's not forget – there is a chance, albeit small, he just does not become a phenom, or even rise to the level Hughes is at now. On the flip side, this is also assuming Hughes can return to full health after a second shoulder surgey, which isn't a guarantee either.

All these things being said, if one trades Bedard in a keeper, it's basically saying goodbye to him forever. That should not be taken lightly. In this situation, if I owned Bedard and wanted to get Hughes, I'd let the league know Bedard is in play. That might cause the Hughes owner to sweeten the package in return, lest they lose out on the chance to get Bedard. I'd say to the other GMs that I'm open to trading Bedard to anyone, even though what I really want is to get Hughes but also a bit more than just Hughes. It's almost assuredly going to work. If it doesn't, then would I still make the deal straight up? Honestly, I think yes. Hughes is a bird in the hand and at their peaks he could be the MacKinnon to Bedard's McDavid, and that's if – and it still is an if – Bedard pans out as well as everyone expects, which is not a guarantee.

Topic #3 – Alexis Lafreniere has taken some strides this season and, when this was posted, had more even strength points than Mika Zibanejad or Chris Kreider. But can he get PP1 time, and, if not, can he improve?

With a five-point game at the end of March, Laffy got back the attention of a lot of poolies who'd written him off, even though, indeed, he'd already been enjoying a successful season. Still, Laffy is doing this while playing alongside Artemi Panarin, who is as talented a scorer as there is in this league, and arguably is bringing out the best in both Laffy and Vincent Trocheck, although with Trocheck he had risen to this level previously, while Laffy had not.

So what? Panarin isn't going anywhere and neither is Laffy, so this could continue in future seasons. The big question mark though is indeed PP1, where Panarin, Trocheck, Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider are staples. Laffy's hope might be that Kreider starts to break down, as he's already older than most "rough and tumble" players are before they either tend to get injured more frequently and/or perform worse. If that does happen, one would think Laffy would be first in line for a PP1 audition.

If Laffy doesn't get that coveted PP1 spot, what can we realistically hope for? With Panarin being nearly the equal of Nikita Kucherov, perhaps Brandon Hagel level production might be in the cards, as Hagel's ES point total is nearly ten times that of his PPPts. Laffy shoots more than Hagel. There is also a chance that Laffy forces New York's hand, much like what's occurred with Carter Verhaeghe, who had a season of 55 points, a mere three of which were on the PP, but after continuing to make strides overall he's taking the ice for over 60% of his team's man advantage minutes and scoring PPPts at a rate of nearly one per three ESPs.

If things stay as they are, Laffy might be able to rise to Hagel levels, while if he forces the issue or gets a break and lands on PP1, Verhaeghe output at or near a point per game could be within reach. But what does seem to be certain is the bust label has been shed and those who had faith in Laffy are being rewarded already, with a chance for bigger future dividends.

Topic #4 – Nils Lundkvist was once a very highly regarded prospect. But with the Rangers having traded him and Thomas Harley having emerged as a secondary scoring option from the blueline for Dallas, does Lundkvist still have a path to being an impactful fantasy asset?

When The Rangers traded Lundkvist, it didn't raise eyebrows as much as it might've, since the logic was the team had Adam Fox and K'Andre Miller, making Lundkvist expendable. Yet here we are nearly two full seasons later and Lundkvist has not made major strides. In fact, he's shed TOI this season, both overall and on the PP. His SOG rate, which was far from great, has dropped as well.

The other concern is he's not doing well despite taking the ice nearly 60% of the time in the offensive zone. He's being sheltered, and positioned to produce, yet he's failing to do so. If there is a silver lining, it's that his overall IPP has risen each season while his secondary assists rate has fallen, plus his SH% this season is unsustainably low. He's also nowhere near his 400 game breakout threshold. So all hope is not lost.

With the emergence of Thomas Harley, Lundkvist's trajectory is not looking great. Also, he's a right-handed shooter, yet Dallas still has refrained from giving him any minutes with Miro Heiskanen, which is not a sign of confidence.

At this point, Lundkvist is a keeper in a deep dynasty leagues only. I would still keep him on my radar as someone who could make noise, but that's about it for now.

Topic #5 – A team recently promoted Daniil Tarasov from its farm, and therefore has a slot open for a replacement netminder. Which one of these three has the most upside: Ivan Prosvetov, Nico Daws, Arvid Soderblom?

I'll start with Daws, because I think it's an open and shut case with him. Although he's only 23, he's looked lousy in NHL action thus far, with only four fewer Really Bad Starts than Quality Starts and two seasons of negative GSAA, plus a grand total of zero shutouts. Truth be told, Daws also has not been that great at the AHL level either. I see his future as that of a depth goalie, who is unlikely to be put in a position to be with an NHL club as a full time back-up, let alone a 1B or starter. For certain it would not be Daws who should be chosen to fill the spot that Tarasov occupied.

Prosvetov might have been seen as back-up material upon entering this season; however, the strong play of Justus Annunen earned him a new deal that seemingly positions him in that role. Still, Annunen is not being paid enough to ensure he remains the back-up. Prosvetov has arguably even worse numbers than Daws, with more Really Bad Starts than Quality Starts for his career, and never once a positive GSAA. But Prosvetov is faring well in the AHL, such that there is at least hope he can connect the dots someday, whether for Colorado or another team. He is for sure a smarter choice than Daws.

What of Soderblom? Chicago opted to reward Petr Merazek with a new two-year deal, giving him a vote of confidence. But Mrazek doesn't earn so much as to be immune to being pushed aside by a superior goaltender. Could Soderblom fit that bill? Not if what we've seen from him this season is any indication, as he has one of the worst GSAAs in recent memory, and a mere one quality start per four starts. But despite this he's remained with the team. Not only is that a vote of confidence, but it is giving him invaluable experience. The question is whether he can grow from it, which is very much in doubt.

In the end, all three represent a steep drop off versus Tarasov, although I'm pretty certain no one was thinking that wouldn't be the case even before I answered the question. In this battle of the lesser of three evils, I'm taking the guy who at least has managed to stay in the NHL all season in Soderblom, as the other two have not earned that level of confidence and probably won't any time soon, if ever.

Topic #6 – In an 16 team, keep 8 league with skater categories of G=2, A=1, D-man G/A=+1, PIM=0.5, +/-=0.5, Shot=0.1, PPG=1, PPA=1, a GM is struggling to decide which of these three they should keep: Vincent Trocheck (2.53 fantasy point per game this season), Pavel Buchnevich (2.23), or Evander Kane (1.91). Who should they keep?

Right off the bat I'm ruling out Kane. This league doesn't count either hits or PIM, which are Kane's sweet spots, and Kane is on pace to finish the season with under three SOG per game for the first time since he was a rookie. He looks disinterested and as a result is no longer being given top six minutes and only PP scraps. Plus, the Oilers are seemingly content not to try to do all they can to break him of his slump, as they're playing fine without him contributing. It seems like the pattern that has followed Kane his entire career is recurring, where he makes a splash then eventually wears out his welcome, unless he's playing for a new contract. He's definitely not the keep here.

Buchnevich is about to have something happen to him that has yet to occur in his entire NHL career to date, and that's his scoring rate not rising versus the prior season, as it had done so for six straight campaigns. What's odd about that is his SOG rate is back to its high point and he is on pace for career highs in TOI, both overall and on the PP. His SH% is not too low either, nor is his secondary assist percentage. The issues are his PP scoring is lower and his usually quite strong IPPs are on pace for five season lows. His quality of linemates is roughly the same as it was last season, which to me suggests he's more likely than not to rebound to point per game levels, especially if he does maintain his new higher ice times and strong linemates. Also, his PP scoring of late as been better, as he's tallied 11 PPPts in his last 34 games after only five in his first 40.

As for Trocheck, he's poised for his first point per game season. Concern arises though in the fact that twice previously he scored at a 75-point-pace, only to dip to lower levels in the next few seasons. Or to put it another way, he's never strung together two very strong seasons in a row. Plus, at age 30 and having played a rough and tumble style, I worry about him breaking down physically. Still, the difference this time is Artemi Panarin, with whom Trocheck has developed superb chemistry. They've been joined at the hips all season, and it's led to great success for both of them, and even – as noted above – the previously disappointing Alexis Lafreniere. Also, Trocheck seems to have a locked in spot on New York's potent PP1. Filip Chytil does loom; but he might have missed his chance to push Trocheck down to the bottom six, and Trocheck has shown enough that it would take a lot for New York to fix what isn't broken.

Still, even with Buchnevich disappointing this season versus expectations, the gap between him and Trocheck is not very wide. And as noted, Buchnevich does appear to be very capable of bouncing back next season. Still, of the two, Buchnevich would be the cheaper redraft. That, plus Trocheck's seemingly cemented spot with Panarin, likely makes him the keeper.

Topic #7 – What does the future hold for Andrei Svechnikov? For the short term it seems he's being deprioritized for Jake Guentzel; but Guentzel is a UFA. Assuming Guentzel doesn't come back next season, where does that put Svech?

Every season it seems excitement builds when Svech ignites, as he did last season (18 points in 16 third quarter games) and this season (19 points in 16 second quarter games); yet when the dust settles, he's at his familiar 70-75 point pace. What's different this time is his SOG rate, which had been at 3.2 per game in two of his 70-75 point scoring rate seasons and 2.7 in his other, is all way down to 2.4 per contest for 2023-24. That is certainly a concern, as although it likely means his slightly higher SH% is realistic, he's not likely to improve without shooting as much as he normally does. Also not a good sign is his ice time back to 17:02 per game after rising to 18:03 last season. Despite not scoring at a higher rate, his PPPts per game is as high as its ever been, despite him taking the ice for a lower percentage of his team's PP minutes versus last season, when it was already down versus his prior season. That's not a good trend.

Yes, a lot of this is due to Guentzel's presence, and he might not be re-signed. Plus, let's also not forget that Teuvo Teravainen is a UFA as well. Chances are Carolina doesn't sign or trade for two forwards of their caliber, making it easier to envision Svech's ice time rising both overall and on the PP in 2024-25. Also, one positive sign is his overall IPP has slowly climbed from a not great 58.4% three seasons ago, to 63.3%, then 65.5% last season, and is at 66.7% for 2023-24. Also, it would mark the first season for him to have both his overall IPP and his PP IPP be north of 60%. But the team's 5×5 SH% with him on the ice has been trending down just as his IPP has been rising. And it's not going to benefit him if he gets a bigger share of fewer points, plus he might be seen as a reason for the lower SH%, and deemphasized.

We can't overlook though that Svech just turned 24. Although he's long past his breakout threshold, it's possible the hot stretches he's had every season might start to last longer and the cold ones shorter, or occur less frequently. Or he might just be what he already is. I'd like to see how he fares in 2023-24 if the Canes don't restock their forward cupboards, as that could really allow him to excel. If he does get that benefit and stays stuck in neutral, then hope for him to be better than what he's been might be unrealistic.

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ANSWER TO THE PLAYER TRIVIA ABOVE…………..Mike Ribeiro!

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Questions for Mailbag column needed The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.