21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles
Dobber Sports
2024-04-28
Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.
Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber
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1. After looking a bit shaky in Game 2, Casey DeSmith was up to the task in Game 3. The Vancouver backup stopped 30 of 31 shots in leading the Canucks to a 2-1 win in Nashville. DeSmith will need to be an unexpected playoff hero if the Canucks are going to go on any kind of run, as Thatcher Demko seems unlikely to return in this series.
Circling back to Demko, there were conflicting reports about him possibly returning in the second round as opposed to being out for the entire playoffs no matter how far the Canucks make it. These types of reports show that we can’t always place a firm timeline on injuries, and this injury seems like that type. The fact that he travelled with the team is a good sign, though. I think Elliotte Friedman described it best during the intermission in that we really don’t know. Projections are especially hard when injuries are involved. (apr27)
2. As for Demko next season, he’s a potential Band-Aid Boy. The Canucks will need to lighten his workload a bit, as he’s had a heavy concentration of starts when he’s healthy. He’s also been one of the busiest goalies within games, as the Canucks have had to lean on him heavily when they were getting significantly outshot in games prior to this season. It will be interesting to see whether the Canucks go to a veteran backup next season like DeSmith or another free agent, or whether they believe that Arturs Silovs is ready to make the jump. (apr27)
3. Could Alex Ovechkin be held without a point for the entire playoffs? Ovie at least fired three shots in Game 3 after being held to just one shot between Games 1 and 2. He also logged 24 minutes in this game, which included 11 minutes of power-play time (the Caps went 0-for-6 on the power play).
No points in three games would be a small sample size against one team, so I wouldn’t put a lot of stock fantasy-wise in any struggles Ovechkin has in this series. Keep in mind that Ovie scored 23 goals and 36 points in his final 36 games after scoring just eight goals during the first half of the season. But unless you had the Capitals as a potential playoff sleeper (I didn’t), Ovechkin probably should have been overlooked in most basic-sized playoff pools. For example, pick any 20 players, which is one that I’m in. (apr27)
4. Matt Rempe is doing his thing again. This time it was a late hit on Trevor van Riemsdyk. Rempe likely won’t be a huge contributor on the scoresheet, but he has totalled 14 hits over the three games. Expect him to continue to be in the lineup because of the physicality of playoff games, unless the Department of Player Safety believes that he has crossed the line enough to warrant a suspension. (apr27)
5. The concern at the start of the Avalanche-Jets series was whether Alexandar Georgiev would hold up in net for Colorado. With the win on Friday, Georgiev has back-to-back quality starts. After three games, potential Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck is the goalie having a rough time. Game 3 was the second time in this series that the Jets have allowed four goals in a period, which is something they didn’t do once during the regular season. Hellebuyck has now allowed 15 goals in three games with a save percentage of around .870 in each of the three games. Granted, he has faced over 30 shots in each game and at least 40 shots in two of the games. (apr27)
6. Do you think Zach Hyman‘s 50-goal season was a fluke? Well, entering Saturday action, he had a league-leading six goals in three playoff games. Although it seemed like a lot at the time it was signed, Hyman’s seven-year contract with a $5.5 million cap hit is a bargain now. Similar to how I didn’t think teammate Ryan Nugent-Hopkins would reach 100 points again this season because it seemed like an outlier, I don’t think Hyman scores 50 goals again next season. Give Hyman credit: he’s turned out to be a much better player than I thought when he appeared to be a third wheel on Toronto’s scoring lines earlier in his career. (apr27)
7. Like most of my colleagues, I picked the Oilers to win, but I predicted that it would take seven hard-fought games. The Oilers certainly look like the easy favorite now since their two wins were lopsided while the Kings’ win was in overtime. The scoreboard does reset at 0-0 at the start of each game, so I’m not yet ready to hand the Oilers a five-game series win. Game 4 is on tap today (Sunday).
After three games, Cam Talbot has a 5.30 GAA and .861 SV%. Keeping the Oilers’ big guns off the scoresheet is no easy task, but those are quite simply ugly ratios. I wonder if the Kings give Big Save David Rittich a go in Game 4. And I wonder what their goaltending situation will look like next season. Zero G works much better for fantasy teams than it does in the real NHL. (apr27)
8. We may be seeing the end of one of arguably the best runs from a franchise since the 2013 lockout. Now trailing 3-1 in the first-round series against the Panthers, the Lightning can still come back and pull off the reverse sweep, though that is incredibly unlikely.
Beginning with the 2013-14 season, the Lightning have 87 playoff wins. As of today, that is 31 more than any other franchise (funny enough, it’s Vegas that was in second place with 56 at time of writing). That stretch has seen two Stanley Cup wins, two other Cup Final appearances, and two other Conference Final appearances. In other words, they made at least the Conference Final more often (6) than not (5) over the last 11 seasons. It has been an incredible run, but with the aging core, a free agent Steven Stamkos, and few prospects breaking down the door, this is starting to resemble Chicago in 2018. (apr26)
9. Just want to say rest in peace to Bob Cole. He was the voice of the childhoods of millions of Canadians spanning multiple generations, and is truly one of the greatest sports broadcasters we’ve ever enjoyed, let alone hockey broadcasters. So many incredible calls over the years – Jeeeeohhh Saaaakic! Condolences to his family and thanks for the memories, Mr. Cole. (apr26)
10. Chicago has signed defenceman Alex Vlasic to a six-year deal with an AAV of $4.6M per season. I wrote about him yesterday when discussing the Blackhawks so read that for more on him.
In salary cap leagues, this could be fine. It isn’t a heavy cap hit and he was just shy of two blocks per game last season. The problem was the 56 hits; if he’s a 60- to 70-hit guy with maybe 20-25 points, it is only the blocked shots bringing a lot of value. There isn’t a reason to cut him yet but it isn’t hard to see this not being a value contract in cap formats. (apr26)
11. My offseason series of reviewing the 16 non-playoff teams started this week with San Jose and Chicago. We are working our way up the standings, and the next team on the list is the Anaheim Ducks. Let’s look at what went right, what went wrong, and where the team goes from here, all through a fantasy hockey lens. (apr26)
12. I wrote a bit last week about the Buffalo Sabres and the changes they might see with Don Granato fired. Well, I expected the coaching search to last at least a few more weeks, and maybe up to closing in on the draft and free agency. What I did not expect but probably should have, is a desperate team seeming to do very little searching, and recycling a recently fired coach for their second tenure with the team.
Ruff was selected by Buffalo at 32nd overall in the 1979 draft, and ended up later coaching the team from 1997 to 2013. Over the last decade, Ruff has coached the Stars and Devils, sandwiching a stint as an assistant in New York. His latest two head coaching stints were both opportunities where he took over a team near the end of a rebuild and he was tasked with turning the corner. He had mixed success in those roles, in Ruff’s first season with the Stars they made the playoffs for the first time in six seasons. However, when Ruff was with the Devils the team spun its wheels for another couple years before it made the playoffs once, and then missed again leading to his firing.
13. All that above to say, is that Ruff may have experience, but that doesn’t mean he’s the best man for the job. It doesn mean ice time will have to be earned, and that may not be good news for a lot of the Buffalo youngsters trying to break into an already crowded lineup. I wouldn’t be a fan of this move if I owned any prospects in the Buffalo system. For those on the roster, it’s a pretty neutral move at this point.
One positive hint to the roster construction for the fall is that Ruff was quoted as being excited about working with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonnen and Devon Levi, meaning it feels unlikely that another goalie is brought in. (apr24)
Brennan added some thoughts on Ruff’s new gig here.
14. In addition to the news a week ago that Timo Meier was dealing with two simultaneous MCL injuries earlier this year, he is now also undergoing an arthroscopic shoulder surgery for a nagging issue. If that doesn’t explain his regression this past year, then I don’t know what will. Definitely a buy-low opportunity here for a player that can be a top-30 asset.
The numbers indicated something was wrong with Meier, and it wasn’t just the points. Perhaps even more indicative was the drop in shot volume from 4.2 the previous two seasons to 3.0 last year, as well as a noticeable drop in hits. Meier will turn right around when the season opens next year, so he’s still relatively in his prime, and there are a number of useful fantasy years left in him. (apr24)
15. It makes sense that the kind of extension being agreed upon ahead of time is how you entice a prized asset like Ivan Fedotov across the pond, and it does explain the higher-than-expected cap hit for someone with all of three uninspiring NHL games under their belt. Fedotov should challenge Samuel Ersson for starts next season on a playoff bubble team in Philadelphia, and with Torts behind the bench it could more often than not come down to a win-and-you’re-in kind of rotation. Not one that I have a ton of confidence in for next year. (apr24)
16. Jakub Voracek‘s retirement this week brings back a few fantasy memories for me, including one where I bought low on him a week into the season in what ended up being one of his best years, and it helped win me a championship. All the best to him in retirement, and after all those concussions, hopefully he has found some stability with his health too. (apr24)
17. In an article from Montreal Canadiens writer Arpon Basu regard Cole Caufield and the shoulder surgery he had, it was mentioned that not having normal use from the shoulder for at least the first year post-surgery was normal. Considering he shot 8.9% on the season after averaging 14.1% across his first three seasons, that makes sense. That he still scored 28 goals should give fantasy managers an indication of what’s to come once he’s fully healthy. (apr23)
18. Back in February, Mikhail Sergachev had surgery to repair broken bones in leg. According to Jon Cooper, it’s unlikely that Sergachev gets into the lineup against Florida, but the 25-year-old defenseman may be available should Tampa make it to the second round. There tends to be a bit of gamesmanship with injuries in the playoffs. Teams don’t want to share too much information and risk their opponents gaining any sort of upper hand. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Sergachev makes a dramatic return late in this series. Remember, Stamkos had a couple of unexpected playoff returns under Jon Cooper’s tenure, so don’t put too much stock into the coach’s current assessment of the situation. You’ll notice Cooper was careful to present his Sergachev update as an opinion, not a fact. His background as a lawyer becomes extra valuable when addressing media during the playoffs. [Edit: Sergachev did indeed return to play in Game 4, on Saturday, as the Bolts escaped elimination in a 6-3 win to see another day.] (apr22)
19. After a number of bleak years in Buffalo, Casey Mittelstadt finally got his first taste of playoff action and celebrated with his first career playoff goal. He’ll be a restricted free agent in the summer, so this playoff performance could help Colorado determine whether Mittelstadt is part of its future. The 25-year-old forward has flirted with a 60-point pace in back-to-back regular seasons. (apr22)
20. Elias Lindholm‘s underwhelming output during the regular season was well documented, but he did finish with five points in his final six appearances. It seems that momentum carried into the postseason as he scored Vancouver’s opening goal of the 2024 playoffs and had a strong forecheck on the game-winning tally. Lindholm paced for just 48 points this past regular season, marking the first time in six years that he’s fallen below a 60-point pace. He’s a free agent this summer, so a strong playoff performance could help his case when it comes time to sign a new deal. (apr22)
21. Offense from Dakota Joshua didn’t come out of nowhere as he had six goals in his final 11 appearances of the regular season. He’d benefitted from an expanded role this year after being underutilized in the past. Joshua should continue to be a major factor as his size allows him to thrive in a physical playoff environment. If the Canucks make a deep run this year, I expect he’ll be one of the team’s unsung heroes. Keep an eye on him in fantasy formats next year, especially those that track hits. (apr22)
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Have a good week, folks!
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